W3LPL Propagation forecast

[4L5A]

Ain't this solar maximum great?

Solar Cycle 25 is now much, much stronger than anyone anticipated, and its slowly growing stronger through at least this weekend.
Today's [Wednesday] estimated international sunspot number is 281.


Its increasingly likely that we'll have widespread coast-to-coast and worldwide 6 meter F2 propagation during about half of the days between late October and at least early February. Widespread F2 openings are likely to bring 6 meter CW and SSB to life like we haven't experienced in more than 20 years.

The first sign of enhanced 6 meter F2 will be increasingly frequent TEP from Europe and North America to South America and the South Atlantic islands. TEP may begin very sporadically by late August and become increasingly frequent later in September and especially during October.

Coast-to-coast F2 propagation and propagation crossing the Atlantic to Europe and Africa may begin sporadically during September and October and become frequent and long lasting by early November.

Effective 6 meter antennas can be very small. 3 element Yagis are small,
lightweight and very effective. 20 foot antenna height is adequate but sloping terrain or higher antennas perform much better. Heights higher that 50 feet are un necessary and in many cases perform poorly.

Are you ready for this once in a lifetime experience?

73
Frank
W3LPL

[4L5A]

The Thursday August 8th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



There is only a very slight chance that the rapidly waning northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season may produce very brief geographically focused sporadic-E long distance propagation beyond 2200 km during this week. Solar maximum effects are causing much less frequent, much shorter duration and much less reliable long distance sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km than occurred during solar minimum and through 2022.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 294 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.



Solar wind speed is likely to be about 400 km/second or less through midday Friday, rapidly increasing to well above 500 km/second after midday Friday and gradually declining to about 400 km/second by late Saturday.



Geomagnetic activity is likely to mostly quiet through midday Friday.

Minor to moderate geomagnetic storms are likely from midday Friday through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mostly active through late Saturday.

M-class solar flares are expected to cause a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday. There is a chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of widespread blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday.

There is a slight chance that S1-class solar radiation storms may cause minor degradation of propagation crossing the northern hemisphere polar region through Saturday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Saturday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be normal through Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Friday, then moderately degraded through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mostly normal through late Saturday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Friday, then moderately degraded through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mostly normal through late Saturday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the northern hemisphere from June through September is always moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Friday, then moderately degraded through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mostly normal through late Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Thursday, mostly normal on Friday and mildly disturbed on Saturday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be normal mostly normal through midday Friday, then moderately degraded through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mostly normal through late Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Thursday, mostly normal on Friday and mildly disturbed on Saturday.



Thermally driven high velocity seasonal thermospheric winds at F2 region altitude blow from the high temperature dayside hemisphere to the lower temperature nightside hemisphere reducing the volume of neutral atomic oxygen available to be ionized in the F2 region during daytime hours, lowering the MUF for F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere to mostly less than 24 MHz through mid-September and mostly less than 28 MHz through late September.



There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1100-2200Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 33 minutes later and sunset is 27 minutes earlier than it was on June 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

There is only a very slight chance that the rapidly waning northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season may produce a brief geographically focused sporadic-E propagation by Wednesday. Solar maximum effects are causing much less frequent, much shorter duration and much less reliable long distance sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km than occurred during solar minimum and through 2022.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 242 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 217 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday

The visible solar disk has two large, four medium and four small active regions containing 82 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1620 micro solar hemispheres (about ten times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to steadily decline to 400 km/second or less through midday Wednesday.



Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet through Wednesday.


M-class solar flares are expected to cause a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Wednesday. There is a chance that an X-class solar flare may cause about an hour of widespread blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Wednesday

There is a slight chance that S1-class solar radiation storms may cause minor degradation of propagation crossing the northern hemisphere polar region through Wednesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal through Monday and normal on Tuesday and Wednesday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the northern hemisphere from June through September is always moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly mostly normal through Wednesday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.



Thermally driven high velocity seasonal thermospheric winds at F2 region altitude blow from the high temperature dayside hemisphere to the lower temperature nightside hemisphere reducing the volume of neutral atomic oxygen available to be ionized in the F2 region during daytime hours, lowering the MUF for F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere to mostly less than 24 MHz through mid-September and mostly less than 28 MHz through late September.



There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1100-2200Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at:


Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 30 minutes later and sunset is 23 minutes earlier than it was on June 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

The Friday August 2nd W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



There is only a very slight chance that the rapidly waning northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season may produce brief geographically focused 6 meter long distance sporadic-E propagation through Sunday. Solar maximum effects are causing less frequent, shorter duration and less reliable long distance sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km than occurred during solar minimum and continuing through 2022.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 239 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday.


SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 260 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.

The visible solar disk has three large, four medium, four small and two very small active region containing 130 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 2360 micro solar hemispheres (about 14 times the surface area of the Earth).

[4L5A]

There is only a very slight chance that the rapidly waning northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season may produce a brief geographically focused transatlantic sporadic-E opening by Saturday. Solar maximum effects are causing less frequent, shorter duration and less reliable long distance sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km than occurred during solar minimum and through 2022.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 238 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 257 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday.

The visible solar disk has three large, five medium, four small and one very small active region containing 141 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 2540 micro solar hemispheres (about 15 times the surface area of the Earth).

Persistent CME effects are likely to maintain the solar wind speed at up to 450 km/second or more through at least early Friday, then slowly improving to about 400 km/second or less through late Saturday.



Minor to moderate geomagnetic storms are likely with a chance of a strong storm through late Thursday. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely from early through midday Friday. Geomagnetic activity is then likely to improve to mostly quiet through at late Saturday.


M-class solar flares are expected to cause a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Friday. There is a chance that an X-class solar flare may cause about an hour of widespread blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Friday.

There is a chance that S1-class solar radiation storms may cause minor degradation of propagation crossing the northern hemisphere polar region through Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday improving to normal through Saturday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday improving to normal on Saturday and Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded on Thursday, improving to mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded on Thursday, improving to mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the northern hemisphere from June through September is always moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded on Thursday, improving to mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday improving to normal on Sunday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be moderately degraded on Thursday, improving to mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday improving to normal on Sunday



Thermally driven high velocity thermospheric winds at F2 region altitude blow from the high temperature dayside hemisphere to the lower temperature nightside hemisphere reducing the volume of neutral atomic oxygen available to be ionized in the F2 region during daytime hours, lowering the MUF for F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere to mostly less than 24 MHz through mid-September and mostly less than 28 MHz through late September.



There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1100-2200Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 27 minutes later and sunset is 19 minutes earlier than it was on June 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

The Wednesday July 31st W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



There is a very slight chance that the rapidly waning northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season may produce a brief geographically focused transatlantic sporadic-E opening before Friday. Solar maximum effects are causing less frequent, shorter duration and less reliable long distance sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km than occurred during solar minimum and through 2022.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 222 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.


SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 249 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.

The visible solar disk has one large, six medium, two small and one very small active region containing 141 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1910 micro solar hemispheres (about 11 times the surface area of the Earth).

The arrival of as many as seven CMEs is likely to maintain the solar wind speed at up to 450 km/second or more through at least late Thursday, then gradually improving to about 400 km/second or less through late Friday.



Minor to moderate geomagnetic storms likely with a chance of a strong storm from late Wednesday through midday Thursday. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely from midday Thursday through early Friday. Geomagnetic activity is likely to improve to mostly quiet from before midday through late Friday.


M-class solar flares are expected to cause a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Friday. There is a chance that an X-class solar flare may cause about an hour of widespread blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Friday

There is a slight chance that S1-class solar radiation storms may cause minor degradation of propagation crossing the northern hemisphere polar region through Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Friday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Wednesday and Thursday and mostly normal on Friday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through midday Thursday, gradually improving to mildly degraded through early Friday and further improving to mostly normal before midday Friday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through midday Thursday, gradually improving to mildly degraded through early Friday and further improving to mostly normal before midday Friday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the northern hemisphere from June through September is always moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through midday Thursday, gradually improving to mildly degraded through early Friday and further improving to mostly normal before midday Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to mildly to moderately degraded through midday Thursday, gradually improving to mildly degraded through early Friday and further improving to mostly normal before midday Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.



Thermally driven high velocity thermospheric winds at F2 region altitude blow from the high temperature dayside hemisphere to the lower temperature nightside hemisphere reducing the volume of neutral atomic oxygen available to be ionized in the F2 region during daytime hours, lowering the MUF for F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere to mostly less than 24 MHz through mid-September and mostly less than 28 MHz through late September.



There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1100-2200Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 26 minutes later and sunset is 18 minutes earlier than it was on June 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

There is a very slight chance that the rapidly waning northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season may produce a brief geographically focused transatlantic sporadic-E opening this week. Solar maximum effects are causing less frequent, shorter duration and less reliable long distance sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km than occurred during solar minimum and through 2022.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 218 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 217 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.

The visible solar disk has one large, six medium, two small and one very small active region containing 110 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1720 micro solar hemispheres (about ten times the surface area of the Earth).

The arrival of as many as seven CMEs is likely to maintain the solar wind speed at up to 450 km/second or more through at least midday Thursday, then gradually improving to about 400 km/second or less through late Thursday.



Minor to strong geomagnetic storms are expected during Tuesday. Minor to moderate geomagnetic storms are likely from early through midday Wednesday. There is a chance of strong geomagnetic storms from midday through late Wednesday. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely early Thursday. Minor to moderate geomagnetic storms are likely during midday Thursday. Geomagnetic activity is likely to improve to mostly unsettled to active from midday through late Thursday.

M-class solar flares are expected to cause a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Thursday. There is a chance that an X-class solar flare may cause about an hour of widespread blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Thursday.

There is a slight chance that S1-class solar radiation storms may cause minor degradation of propagation crossing the northern hemisphere polar region through Thursday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be moderately to strongly degraded on Wednesday and mildly to moderately degraded on Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be strongly to moderately degraded on Tuesday and mildly to moderately degraded on Wednesday and Thursday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to strongly degraded through Thursday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to strongly degraded through Thursday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the northern hemisphere from June through September is always moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to strongly degraded through Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be moderately to strongly degraded through Thursday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mildly to strongly degraded through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be moderately to strongly degraded through Thursday.



Thermally driven high velocity thermospheric winds at F2 region altitude blow from the high temperature dayside hemisphere to the lower temperature nightside hemisphere reducing the volume of neutral atomic oxygen available to be ionized in the F2 region during daytime hours, lowering the MUF for F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere to mostly less than 24 MHz through mid-September and mostly less than 28 MHz through late September.



There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1100-2200Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 25 minutes later and sunset is 17 minutes earlier than it was on June 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

There is a very slight chance that the rapidly waning northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season may produce a brief geographically focused transatlantic sporadic-E opening before the end of July. Solar maximum effects are causing less frequent, shorter duration and less reliable long distance sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km than occurred during solar minimum and through 2022.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 210 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 208 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.

The visible solar disk has two large, seven medium and one very small active region containing 89 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1920 micro solar hemispheres (about 11 times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be at 400 km/second or less through about midday Monday. The arrival of multiple CMEs is likely to solar wind speed to 450 km/second or more by late Monday continuing through midday Wednesday, then gradually improving to about 400 km/second or less through late Wednesday.



Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic activity is likely through midday Monday. Active geomagnetic activity is likely from midday through late Monday. Minor geomagnetic storms are expected from late Monday through midday Wednesday. Moderate geomagnetic storms are likely from before midday Tuesday through early Wednesday. There is a chance of strong geomagnetic storms from midday through late Tuesday. Geomagnetic activity is likely to improve to mostly unsettled to active from midday through late Wednesday.


M-class solar flares are likely to cause a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Wednesday. There is a slight chance that an X-class solar flare may cause about an hour of widespread blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Wednesday.

There is a slight chance that S1-class solar radiation storms may cause minor degradation of propagation crossing the northern hemisphere polar region through Wednesday.

There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1100-2200Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 24 minutes later and sunset is 16 minutes earlier than it was on June 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

There is a slight chance that the rapidly waning northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season may produce a brief geographically focused transatlantic sporadic-E opening before the end of July. Solar maximum effects are causing less frequent, shorter duration and less reliable long distance sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km than occurred during solar minimum and through 2022.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 166 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 189 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.

The visible solar disk has two medium, six small and three very small active regions containing 61 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 730 micro solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be elevated at levels of about 450 km/second or more through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to about 400 km/second or less through Sunday.



Minor geomagnetic storms are likely through midday Saturday. Geomagnetic activity is likely to improve to mostly quiet to unsettled through Sunday.

M-class solar flares are likely to cause a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday. There is a slight chance that an X-class solar flare may cause about an hour of widespread blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday.

There is a slight chance that S1-class solar radiation storms may cause minor degradation of propagation crossing the northern hemisphere polar region through Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mildly degraded through Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately disturbed through midday Saturday, gradually improving to

mostly normal through Sunday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately disturbed through midday Saturday, gradually improving to

mostly normal through Sunday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the northern hemisphere from June through September is always moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately disturbed through midday Saturday, gradually improving to mostly normal through Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through midday Saturday improving to mostly normal on Sunday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mildly to moderately disturbed through midday Saturday, gradually improving to mostly normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through midday Saturday improving to mostly normal on Sunday.



Thermally driven high velocity thermospheric winds at F2 region altitude blow from the high temperature dayside hemisphere to the lower temperature nightside hemisphere reducing the volume of neutral atomic oxygen available to be ionized in the F2 region during daytime hours, lowering the MUF for F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere to mostly less than 24 MHz through mid-September and mostly less than 28 MHz through late September.



There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1100-2200Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 22 minutes later and sunset is 14 minutes earlier than it was on June 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

The waning northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season may produce occasional brief geographically focused transatlantic sporadic-E openings during the last seven days of July. Solar maximum effects are causing less frequent, shorter duration and less reliable long distance sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km than occurred during solar minimum and through 2022.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 174 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 174 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.

The visible solar disk has one large, four medium, two small and three very small active regions containing 67 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1175 micro solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).



Solar wind speed is likely to be near ambient levels of less than 350 km/second through Wednesday, mildly increasing to greater than 400 km/second during Thursday, and declining to less than 400 km/second on Friday.



Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet on Wednesday, quiet to unsettled on Thursday improving to quiet on Friday


M-class solar flares are likely to cause a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Friday. There is a slight chance that an X-class solar flare may cause about an hour of widespread blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Friday.

There is a slight chance of S1-class minor solar radiation storms through Friday with minimal impact on propagation crossing polar regions.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to mostly normal on Thursday, then improving to normal on Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday, mostly normal on Thursday, then improving to normal on Friday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday, mostly normal on Thursday, then improving to normal on Friday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday, mostly normal on Thursday, then improving to normal on Friday. 20 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere from June through September is always moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday, mostly normal on Thursday, then improving to normal on Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday, mostly normal on Thursday, then improving to normal on Friday



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to normal on Wednesday, mostly normal on Thursday, improving to normal on Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday, mostly normal on Thursday, then improving to normal on Friday .



Thermally driven high velocity thermospheric winds at F2 region altitude blow from the high temperature dayside hemisphere to the lower temperature nightside hemisphere reducing the volume of neutral atomic oxygen available to be ionized in the F2 region during daytime hours, lowering the MUF for F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere to mostly less than 24 MHz through mid-September and mostly less than 28 MHz through late September.



There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1100-2200Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 20 minutes later and sunset is 11 minutes earlier than it was on June 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.