Geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely from June through mid-July compared to their more frequent occurrence during the equinox seasons.
We are in the prime northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season from June through mid-to-late July.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 194 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 117 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.
The visible solar disk has one large, five medium, two small and one very small active region containing 51 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1340 micro solar hemispheres (about eight times the surface area of the Earth).
Solar wind speed is likely to nominal at about 350 km/second or less through Thursday.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet through Thursday.
M-class solar flares are likely to cause minor to moderate radio blackouts through Thursday. There is a slight chance that isolated strong solar flares caused by X-Class solar flares may cause moderate radio blackouts through Thursday.
There is a slight chance that S1-Class weak solar radiation storms may cause isolated minor impacts on propagation crossing polar regions through Thursday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until several hours after sunset.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be normal through Thursday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Thursday with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Thursday with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours. Midday 20 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Thursday with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday .
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be normal through Thursday with with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday .
Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen atoms available for ionizing the F2 region during daytime hours, degrading 10 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from early June through late September and degrading 12 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from mid-June through mid-September.
There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1100-2200Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.
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Geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely from June through mid-July compared to their more frequent occurrence during the equinox seasons.
We are in the prime northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season from June through mid-to-late July.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 190 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 129 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.
The visible solar disk has one large, six medium, three small and one very small active region containing 66 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1750 micro solar hemispheres (about ten times the surface area of the Earth).
Solar wind speed is likely to nominal at about 350 km/second through Wednesday.
Quiet geomagnetic activity is likely through Wednesday.
M-class solar flares are likely to cause minor to moderate radio blackouts through Wednesday. There is a slight chance that isolated strong solar flares caused by X-Class solar flares may cause moderate radio blackouts through Wednesday.
There is a slight chance that S1-Class weak solar radiation storms may cause isolated minor impacts on propagation crossing polar regions through Wednesday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until several hours after sunset.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Wednesday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Wednesday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. Midday 20 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Wednesday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday .
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be normal through Wednesday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday .
Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen atoms available for ionizing the F2 region during daytime hours, degrading 10 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from early June through late September and degrading 12 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from mid-June through mid-September.
There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1100-2200Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 1 minuts later and sunset is 0 minutes later than it was on June 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
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Geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely from June through mid-July compared to their more frequent occurrence during the equinox seasons.
We are in the prime northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season from June through mid-to-late July.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 206 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.
The visible solar disk has two very large, one large, two small and one very small active regions containing 111 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 2370 micro solar hemispheres (about 14 times the surface area of the Earth).
Solar wind speed is likely to remain slightly elevated at about 450 km/second through midday Friday, increasing to 450 km/second or more through early Saturday and gradually declining to 450 km/second from midday Saturday through Sunday.
Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic activity is likely on Friday, degrading to unsettled to active through early Saturday then improving to mostly quiet from midday Saturday through Sunday
M-class solar flares are likely to cause minor to moderate radio blackouts through Sunday. There is a chance that isolated strong solar flares caused by X-Class solar flares may cause moderate radio blackouts through Sunday.
There is a slight chance that S1-Class weak solar radiation storms may cause isolated minor impacts on propagation crossing polar regions through Sunday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until several hours after sunset.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. Midday 20 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday .
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday .
Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen atoms available for ionizing the F2 region during daytime hours, degrading 10 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from early June through late September and degrading 12 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from mid-June through mid-September.
There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1200-2000Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.Leave a comment:
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Geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely from June through mid-July compared to their more frequent occurrence during the equinox seasons.
We are in the prime northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season from June through mid-to-late July.
Solar wind speed is likely to remain slightly elevated at about 450 km/second or more through midday Thursday, declining to about 400 km/second or less through Friday, increasing to 450 km/second or more early Saturday and gradually declining to 450 km/second after midday Saturday.
Mostly quiet geomagnetic activity is likely on Thursday, degrading to unsettled to active after midday Friday then improving to quiet to unsettled by midday Saturday.
M-class solar flares are likely to cause minor to moderate radio blackouts through Saturday. There is a chance that isolated strong solar flares caused by X-Class solar flares may cause moderate radio blackouts through Saturday. There is a slight chance that S1-Class weak solar radiation storms may cause isolated minor impacts on propagation crossing polar regions through Saturday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until several hours after sunset.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be normal on Friday and mostly normal on Saturday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. Midday 20 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday .
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday .
Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen atoms available for ionizing the F2 region during daytime hours, degrading 10 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from early June through late September and degrading 12 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from mid-June through mid-September.
There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1200-2000Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.Leave a comment:
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Geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely from June through mid-July compared to their more frequent occurrence during the equinox seasons.
We are in the prime northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season from June through mid-to-late July.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 181 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until several hours after sunset.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday, further improving to normal on Thursday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, then improving to normal through Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, then improving to normal through Thursday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, then improving to normal through Thursday. Midday 20 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, then improving to normal through Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday .
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be normal mostly normal on Tuesday, then improving to normal through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday .
Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen atoms available for ionizing the F2 region during daytime hours, degrading 10 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from early June through late September and degrading 12 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from late June through mid-September.
There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1200-2000Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.Leave a comment:
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Solar wind speed is likely to remain slightly elevated at about 450 km/second or more through Tuesday.
Mostly quiet geomagnetic activity is likely through late Monday. Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic activity is likely from late Monday through midday Tuesday due to c oronal hole high speed stream activity
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until several hours after sunset.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and mildly degraded during early Tuesday nighttime hours returning to mostly normal after Tuesday sunrise. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and mildly degraded during early Tuesday nighttime hours returning to mostly normal after Tuesday sunrise. Daytime 20 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter daytime and nighttime propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and mildly degraded during early Tuesday nighttime hours returning to mostly normal after Tuesday sunrise. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday .
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be normal mostly normal on Monday and mildly degraded during early Tuesday nighttime hours returning to mostly normal after Tuesday sunrise. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday .
Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen atoms available for ionizing the F2 region during daytime hours, degrading 10 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from early June through late September and degrading 12 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from late June through mid-September.
There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1200-2000Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.
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The Friday June 14th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX . All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
Geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely from June through mid-July compared to their more frequent occurrence during the equinox seasons.
We are in the prime northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season from June through mid-to-late July.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through the weekend; however, there is a chance that CME arrival may cause mildly to moderately degraded propagation mostly during local nighttime hours from midday Saturday through midday Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until several hours after sunset.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be normal on Saturday; however, there is a chance that CME arrival may cause mildly to moderately degraded propagation on Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal through Saturday; however, there is a chance that CME arrival may cause mildly degraded propagation on Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through the weekend; however, there is a chance that CME arrival may cause mildly to moderately degraded propagation mostly during local nighttime hours from midday Saturday through midday Sunday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through the weekend; however, there is a chance that CME arrival may cause mildly to moderately degraded propagation mostly during local nighttime hours from midday Saturday through midday Sunday. Daytime 20 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter daytime and nighttime propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through the weekend; however, there is a chance that CME arrival may cause mildly to moderately degraded propagation mostly during local nighttime hours from midday Saturday through midday Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal; however, there is a chance that CME arrival may cause moderately degraded propagation on Saturday.
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be normal through the weekend; however, there is a chance that CME arrival may cause mildly to moderately degraded propagation mostly during local nighttime hours from midday Saturday through midday Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal; however, there is a chance that CME arrival may cause moderately degraded propagation on Saturday.
Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen atoms available for ionizing the F2 region during daytime hours, degrading 10 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from early June through late September and degrading 12 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from late June through mid-September.
There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1200-2000Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.Leave a comment:
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Geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely from June through mid-July compared to their more frequent occurrence during the equinox seasons.
We are in the prime northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season from June through mid-to-late July.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 174 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday.
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The Tuesday June 11th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX . All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
Geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely from June through mid-July compared to their more frequent occurrence during the equinox seasons.
We are in the prime northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season from June through mid-to-late July.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 174 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php ]
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 120 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.
[ https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The visible solar disk has two large, five small and two very small active regions containing 56 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 840 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
[ https://www.solarham.net/regions.htm | www.solarham.net/regions.htm ]
Solar wind speed is likely to gradually decline to about 400 km/second by midday Wednesday, further declining to less than 400 km/second through the weekend.
Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic activity is likely through midday Wednesday, then improving to mostly quiet through the weekend.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections ]
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes | www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes ]
There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause occasional mostly brief, minor radio blackouts through Thursday. There is a slight chance that isolated X-class solar flares may cause isolated strong radio blackouts through Thursday , moderately degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for an hour or more during each event.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts ]
There is a slight chance that S1-Class weak solar radiation storms may briefly and slightly degrade propagation crossing polar regions through Thursday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm ]
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through the weekend. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until several hours after sunset.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0015Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday improving to normal through the weekend. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday improving to normal through the weekend.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Wednesday improving to normal through the weekend. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Wednesday improving to normal through the weekend. Daytime 20 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter daytime and nighttime propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Wednesday improving to normal through the weekend. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday improving to normal through the weekend.
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal through midday Wednesday improving to normal through the weekend. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to mostly normal through Wednesday improving to normal through the weekend.
Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen atoms available for ionizing the F2 region during daytime hours, degrading 10 meter F2 propagation in the northern hemisphere from early June through late September and degrading 12 meter F2 propagation in the northern hemisphere from late June through mid-September.
There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1200-2000Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: [ http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf | http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf ]
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 90 minutes earlier and sunset is 75 minutes later than on March 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
[ https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-ac...aurora-updates | earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates ]
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s latest space weather news is posted at
[ https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov | twitter.com/TamithaSkov ]
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
[ https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html | https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html ]
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at [ http://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php ]
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at [ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index | www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index ]
Station K and A indices for the last week are updated daily at
[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/station-k-and-indices | www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/station-k-and-indices ]
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Geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely from June through mid-July compared to their more frequent occurrence during the equinox seasons.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 180 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday.
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php ]
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 129 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday.
[ https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The visible solar disk has four large, four small and two very small active regions containing 48 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 890 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
[ https://www.solarham.net/regions.htm | www.solarham.net/regions.htm ]
Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels of 400 km/second or less through midday Monday. CME arrival is likely to increase solar wind speed to up to 500 km/second after midday Monday, gradually declining to about 400 km/second by late Tuesday.
Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic activity is likely through midday Monday. Minor to moderate geomagnetic storms are expected from about midday Monday through early Tuesday. Enhanced geomagnetic activity is likely to gradually improve to quiet to unsettled after midday Tuesday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections ]
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes | www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes ]
There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause occasional mostly brief, minor radio blackouts through Tuesday. There is a slight chance that isolated X-class solar flares may cause isolated strong radio blackouts through Tuesday , moderately degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for an hour or more during each event.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts ]
There is a slight chance that S1-Class weak solar radiation storms may briefly and slightly degrade propagation crossing polar regions through Tuesday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm ]
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until several hours after sunset.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0015Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Tuesday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Monday then mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours from midday Monday through early Tuesday. Propagation is likely to improve to mostly normal after sunrise Tuesday.
Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to bemostly normal through midday Monday then mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours from midday Monday through early Tuesday. Propagation is likely to improve to mostly normal after sunrise Tuesday. Daytime 20 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter daytime and nighttime propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Monday then mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours from midday Monday through early Tuesday. Propagation is likely to improve to mostly normal after sunrise Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday.
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal through midday Monday then mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours from midday Monday through early Tuesday. Propagation is likely to improve to mostly normal after sunrise Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday.
Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen atoms available for ionizing the F2 region during daytime hours, degrading 10 meter F2 propagation in the northern hemisphere from early June through late September and degrading 12 meter F2 propagation in the northern hemisphere from late June through mid-September.
There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1200-2000Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: [ http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf | http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf ]
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 90 minutes earlier and sunset is 74 minutes later than on March 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
[ https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-ac...aurora-updates | earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates ]
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s latest space weather news is posted at
[ https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov | twitter.com/TamithaSkov ]
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
[ https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html | https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html ]
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at [ http://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php ]
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at [ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index | www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index ]
Station K and A indices for the last week are updated daily at
[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/station-k-and-indices | www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/station-k-and-indices ]
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at [ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 ]
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