Geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely through mid-July compared to their more frequent occurrence during the equinox seasons.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 197 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php ]
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 179 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.
[ https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The visible solar disk has four large, two small and three very small active regions containing 59 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 760 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
[ https://www.solarham.net/regions.htm | www.solarham.net/regions.htm ]
Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels of less than 400 km/second or less through Sunday and beyond.
Mostly quiet geomagnetic activity is likely through Sunday and beyond.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections ]
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes | www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes ]
There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause occasional mostly brief, minor radio blackouts through Sunday. There is a slight chance that isolated X-class solar flares may cause isolated strong radio blackouts through Sunday , moderately degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for an hour or more during each event.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts ]
There is a slight chance that S1-Class weak solar radiation storms may briefly and slightly degrade propagation crossing polar regions through Sunday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm ]
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until several hours after sunset.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0015Z is likely to be normal on through Sunday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Daytime 20 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter daytime and nighttime propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.
Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen available for ionizing the F2 region during daytime hours, degrading 10 meter F2 propagation in the northern hemisphere from early June through late September and degrading 12 meter F2 propagation in the northern hemisphere from late June through mid-September.
There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1200-2000Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: [ http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf | http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf ]
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 90 minutes earlier and sunset is 73 minutes later than on March 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
[ https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-ac...aurora-updates | earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates ]
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s latest space weather news is posted at
[ https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov | twitter.com/TamithaSkov ]
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
[ https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html | https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html ]
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at [ http://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php ]
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at [ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index | www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index ]
Station K and A indices for the last week are updated daily at
[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/station-k-and-indices | www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/station-k-and-indices ]
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at [ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated ]
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | www.hamqsl.com/solar.html ]
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
[ https://prop.kc2g.com/ | https://prop.kc2g.com ]
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength , solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot ]
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at [ http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest | http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest ]
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The Thursday June 6th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX . All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
Geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely through mid-July compared to their more frequent occurrence during the equinox seasons.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 193 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday.
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php ]
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 213 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday.
[ https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The visible solar disk has four large, one small and seven very small active regions containing 73 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 835 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
[ https://www.solarham.net/regions.htm | www.solarham.net/regions.htm ]
Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels of less than 400 km/second through Saturday .
Mostly quiet geomagnetic activity is likely through Saturday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections ]
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes | www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes ]
M-class solar flares are expected to cause occasional mostly minor radio blackouts through Saturday. There is a chance that isolated X-class solar flares may cause isolated strong radio blackouts through Saturday , moderately degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for an hour or more during each event.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts ]
There is a slight chance that S1-Class weak solar radiation storms may briefly degrade propagation crossing polar regions through Saturday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm ]
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until several hours after sunset.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0015Z is likely to be normal on through Saturday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Saturday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday. Daytime 20 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter daytime and nighttime propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday .
Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen available for ionizing the F2 region during daytime hours, degrading 10 meter F2 propagation in the northern hemisphere from early June through late September and degrading 12 meter F2 propagation from late June through mid-September.
There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1200-2000Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: [ http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf | http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf ]
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 89 minutes earlier and sunset is 72 minutes later than on March 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
[ https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-ac...aurora-updates | earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates ]
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s latest space weather news is posted at
[ https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov | twitter.com/TamithaSkov ]
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
[ https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html | https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html ]
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at [ http://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php ]
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at [ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index | www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index ]
Station K and A indices for the last week are updated daily at
[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/station-k-and-indices | www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/station-k-and-indices ]
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at [ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated ]
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | www.hamqsl.com/solar.html ]
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
[ https://prop.kc2g.com/ | https://prop.kc2g.com ]
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength , solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
Leave a comment:
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The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 192 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday .
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php ]
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 213 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday .
[ https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The visible solar disk has one large, four small and seven very small active regions containing 104 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 680 micro solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
[ https://www.solarham.net/regions.htm | www.solarham.net/regions.htm ]
Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels of about 400 km/second or less through Thursday.
We are in the summer solstice season when geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons.
Mostly quiet geomagnetic activity is likely through Thursday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections ]
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes | www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes ]
M-class solar flares are expected to cause occasional mostly minor radio blackouts through Thursday. There is a chance that isolated X-class solar flares may cause isolated strong radio blackouts through Thursday , moderately degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for an hour or more during each event.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts ]
There is a slight chance that S1-Class weak solar radiation storms may briefly degrade propagation crossing polar regions through Thursday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm ]
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0015Z is likely to be normal on Thursday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday. Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen available for ionization during daytime hours, degrading daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation in the northern hemisphere from late spring through late summer.
There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1200-2000Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: [ http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf | http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf ]
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 89 minutes earlier and sunset is 72 minutes later than on March 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
[ https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-ac...aurora-updates | earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates ]
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s latest space weather news is posted at
[ https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov | twitter.com/TamithaSkov ]
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
[ https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html | https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html ]
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at [ http://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php ]
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at [ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index | www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index ]
Station K and A indices for the last week are updated daily at
[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/station-k-and-indices | www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/station-k-and-indices ]
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at [ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated ]
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | www.hamqsl.com/solar.html ]
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
[ https://prop.kc2g.com/ | https://prop.kc2g.com ]
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength , solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot ]
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at [ http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest | http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest ]
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
[ https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index | https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index ]
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion | www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion ]
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
[ http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 | www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 ]
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
[ http://dx.qsl.net/propagation | http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [ http://www.solarham.com/ | www.solarham.com ]
Leave a comment:
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The Tuesday June 4th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX . All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 188 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday .
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php ]
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 212 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday .
[ https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The visible solar disk has one very large, one large, five small and four very small active regions containing 98 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 880 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
[ https://www.solarham.net/regions.htm | www.solarham.net/regions.htm ]
Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels of less than 400 km/second through midday Tuesday. Nearby passage of a weak CME is likely to mildly increase solar wind speed to about 450 km/second or more from midday Tuesday through early Wednesday. Solar wind speed is likely to decline to near background levels of less than 400 km/second after midday Tuesday.
We are in the summer solstice season when geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons.
Mostly quiet geomagnetic activity is likely through midday Tuesday. There is a chance of active to minor geomagnetic storm activity from midday Tuesday through early Wednesday due to nearby passage of a weak CME.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections ]
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes | www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes ]
M-class solar flares are expected to cause occasional minor or greater radio blackouts through Wednesday , mildly degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for tens of minutes during each event. There is a chance that isolated X-class solar flares may cause isolated strong radio blackouts through Wednesday , moderately degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for an hour or more during each event.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts ]
There is a slight chance that S1-Class weak solar radiation storms may briefly degrade propagation crossing polar regions through Wednesday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm ]
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0015Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Wednesday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday but becoming mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from midday Tuesday through early Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday but becoming mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from midday Tuesday through early Wednesday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday but becoming mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from midday Tuesday through early Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday .
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday but becoming mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from midday Tuesday through early Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday . Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen available for ionization during daytime hours, degrading daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation in the northern hemisphere from late spring through late summer.
There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1200-2000Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: [ http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf | http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf ]
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 89 minutes earlier and sunset is 71 minutes later than on March 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
[ https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-ac...aurora-updates | earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates ]
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s latest space weather news is posted at
[ https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov | twitter.com/TamithaSkov ]
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
[ https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html | https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html ]
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at [ http://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php ]
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at [ https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png/ | https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png ]
Station K and A indices for the last week are updated daily at
[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/station-k-and-indices | www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/station-k-and-indices ]
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at [ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated ]
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The Monday June 3rd W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX . All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 180 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday .
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php ]
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 201 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday .
[ https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The visible solar disk has one very large, three large, three small and two very small active regions containing 96 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1130 micro solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).
[ https://www.solarham.net/regions.htm | www.solarham.net/regions.htm ]
Solar wind speed is likely to be at background levels of less than 350 km/second through midday Tuesday, increasing to about 400 km/second after midday Tuesday due to glancing weak CME influence.
Quiet geomagnetic activity is likely through midday Tuesday, there is a chance of active to minor geomagnetic storm activity after midday Tuesday due to glancing weak CME influence.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections ]
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes | www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes ]
We are in the summer solstice season when geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons.
M-class solar flares are expected to cause occasional minor or greater radio blackouts through Tuesday , mildly degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for tens of minutes during each event. There is a chance that isolated X-class solar flares may cause isolated strong radio blackouts through Tuesday , moderately degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for an hour or more during each event.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts ]
There is a slight chance that S1-Class solar radiation storms may briefly degrade propagation crossing polar regions through Tuesday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm ]
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0015Z is likely to be normal on Tuesday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal through Tuesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Tuesday becoming mildly degraded by weak geomagnetic storm activity after midday Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Tuesday becoming mildly degraded by weak geomagnetic storm activity after midday Tuesday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to normal through midday Tuesday becoming mildly degraded by weak geomagnetic storm activity after midday Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Tuesday .
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be normal through midday Tuesday becoming mildly degraded by weak geomagnetic storm activity after midday Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Tuesday. Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen available for daytime ionization, degrading daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation in the northern hemisphere from late spring through late summer.
There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1200-2000Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: [ http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf | http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf ]
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 89 minutes earlier and sunset is 70 minutes later than on March 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
[ https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-ac...aurora-updates | earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates ]
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s latest space weather news is posted at
[ https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov | twitter.com/TamithaSkov ]
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
[ https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html | https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html ]
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at [ http://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php ]
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at [ https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png/ | https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png ]
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at [ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated ]
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | www.hamqsl.com/solar.html ]
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
[ https://prop.kc2g.com/ | https://prop.kc2g.com ]
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength , solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot ]
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The Friday May 30th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX . All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 174 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday .
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php ]
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 144 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday .
[ https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The visible solar disk has two very large, one small and five very small active regions containing 64 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 860 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
[ https://www.solarham.net/regions.htm | www.solarham.net/regions.htm ]
Solar wind speed is likely to be at background levels of less than 400 km/second until late Friday, increasing to above 400 km/second from late Friday through before midday Saturday due to CME influence, then returning to background levels of less than 400 km/second through Sunday.
Quiet geomagnetic activity is likely through midday Friday, minor to moderate geomagnetic storms are likely from midday Friday through before midday Saturday due to CME influence then improving to mostly quiet geomagnetic activity through Sunday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections ]
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes | www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes ]
We are in the summer solstice season when geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons.
M-class solar flares are expected to cause occasional minor or greater radio blackouts through Friday , mildly degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for tens of minutes during each event. There is a chance that isolated X-class solar flares may cause isolated strong radio blackouts through Friday , moderately degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for an hour or more during each event.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts ]
There is a slight chance that S1-Class solar radiation storms may degrade propagation crossing polar regions through Sunday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm ]
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0015Z is likely to be moderately degraded on Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal on Friday, mildly degraded on Saturday, then improving to mostly normal on Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Friday becoming mildly to moderately degraded by geomagnetic storm activity from midday Friday until before midday Saturday then improving to mostly normal through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Friday becoming mildly to moderately degraded by geomagnetic storm activity from midday Friday until before midday Saturday then improving to mostly normal through Sunday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Friday becoming mildly to moderately degraded by geomagnetic storm activity from midday Friday until before midday Saturday then improving to mostly normal through Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Sunday .
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be normal through midday Friday becoming mildly to moderately degraded by geomagnetic storm activity from midday Friday until before midday Saturday then improving to mostly normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Sunday. Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen available for daytime ionization, degrading daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation in the northern hemisphere from late spring through late summer.
There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1200-2000Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: [ http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf | http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf ]
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 87 minutes earlier and sunset is 68 minutes later than on March 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
[ https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-ac...aurora-updates | earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates ]
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s latest space weather news is posted at
[ https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov | twitter.com/TamithaSkov ]
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
[ https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html | https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html ]
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at [ http://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php ]
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at [ https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png/ | https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png ]
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at [ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated ]
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | www.hamqsl.com/solar.html ]
Leave a comment:
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The Thursday May 30th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX . All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 167 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday .
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php ]
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 144 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday .
[ https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The visible solar disk has two very large, one small and five very small active regions containing 51 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 820 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
[ https://www.solarham.net/regions.htm | www.solarham.net/regions.htm ]
Solar wind speed is likely to be at background levels of less than 400 km/second through midday Friday, increasing to above 400 km/second after midday Friday due to CME effects.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet through midday Friday then degrading to minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions after midday Friday due to CME effects.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections ]
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes | www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes ]
We are in the summer solstice season when geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons.
M-class solar flares are expected to cause isolated minor or greater radio blackouts through Friday , mildly degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for tens of minutes during each event. There is a chance that isolated X-class solar flares may cause isolated strong radio blackouts through Friday , mildly degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for an hour or more during each event.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts ]
There is a slight chance that S1-Class solar radiation storms may degrade propagation crossing polar regions through Friday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm ]
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0015Z is likely to be normal on Friday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal through Friday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Friday becoming mildly to moderately degraded by minor to moderate geomagnetic storms after midday Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Friday becoming mildly to moderately degraded by minor to moderate geomagnetic storms after midday Friday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Friday becoming mildly to moderately degraded by minor to moderate geomagnetic storms after midday Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday.
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be normal through midday Friday becoming mildly to moderately degraded by minor to moderate geomagnetic storms after midday Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday. Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen available for daytime ionization, degrading daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation in the northern hemisphere from late spring through late summer.
There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1200-2000Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: [ http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf | http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf ]
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 87 minutes earlier and sunset is 68 minutes later than on March 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
[ https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-ac...aurora-updates | earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates ]
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s latest space weather news is posted at
[ https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov | twitter.com/TamithaSkov ]
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
[ https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html | https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html ]
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at [ http://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php ]
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at [ https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png/ | https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png ]
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at [ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated ]
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The Wednesday May 29th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX . All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 166 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday .
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php ]
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 144 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday .
[ https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The visible solar disk has one very large, two large, two small and four very small active regions containing 51 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 950 micro solar hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth).
[ https://www.solarham.net/regions.htm | www.solarham.net/regions.htm ]
Solar wind speed is likely to be at background levels of less than 400 km/second through Friday.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet to unsettled through early Thursday, improving to quiet after early Thursday through late Friday. There is a chance of brief isolated active geomagnetic conditions and a slight change on a minor geomagnetic storm during midday Wednesday caused by possible CME effects.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections ]
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes | www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes ]
We are in the summer solstice season when geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons.
M-class solar flares are likely to cause isolated minor or greater radio blackouts through Friday , mildly degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for tens of minutes during each event. There is a slight chance that isolated X-class solar flares may cause isolated strong radio blackouts through Friday , mildly degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for an hour or more during each event.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts ]
There is a slight chance that S1-Class solar radiation storms may degrade propagation crossing polar regions through Friday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm ]
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0015Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday and normal on Friday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal through Friday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday and normal on Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday and normal on Friday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday and normal on Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday.
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday and normal on Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday. Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen available for daytime ionization, degrading daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation in the northern hemisphere from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1200-2000Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: [ http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf | http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf ]
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 87 minutes earlier and sunset is 67 minutes later than on March 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
[ https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-ac...aurora-updates | earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates ]
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s latest space weather news is posted at
[ https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov | twitter.com/TamithaSkov ]
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
[ https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html | https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html ]
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at [ http://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php ]
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at [ https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png/ | https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png ]
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at [ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated ]
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | www.hamqsl.com/solar.html ]
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
[ https://prop.kc2g.com/ | https://prop.kc2g.com ]
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength , solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot ]
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at [
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
[ http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 | www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 ]
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
[ http://dx.qsl.net/propagation | http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [ http://www.solarham.com/ | www.solarham.com ]
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The Tuesday May 28th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX . All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 167 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday .
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php ]
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 149 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday .
[ https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The visible solar disk has one very large, one large, three small and three very small active regions containing 36 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 830 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
[ https://www.solarham.net/regions.htm | www.solarham.net/regions.htm ]
Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels at less than 400 km/second through Thursday.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet on Tuesday, degrading to quiet to unsettled through early Thursday, then improving to mostly quiet after early Thursday. There is a chance of brief isolated active geomagnetic conditions during midday Wednesday caused by possible CME effects.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections ]
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes | www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes ]
We are in the summer solstice season when geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons.
There is a chance that isolated M-class solar flares may cause isolated minor or greater radio blackouts through Thursday , mildly degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for tens of minutes during each event.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts ]
Solar radiation storms that can degrade propagation crossing polar regions are not likely through Thursday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm ]
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0015Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday. Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen available for daytime ionization, degrading daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation in the northern hemisphere from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: [ http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf | http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf ]
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 86 minutes earlier and sunset is 66 minutes later than on March 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
[ https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-ac...aurora-updates | earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates ]
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s latest space weather news is posted at
[ https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov | twitter.com/TamithaSkov ]
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
[ https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html | https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html ]
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at [ http://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php ]
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at [ https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png/ | https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png ]
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at [ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated ]
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | www.hamqsl.com/solar.html ]
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
[ https://prop.kc2g.com/ | https://prop.kc2g.com ]
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength , solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot ]
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at [ http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest | http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest ]
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
[ https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index | https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index ]
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion | www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion ]
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The Monday May 27th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX . All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 156 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday .
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php ]
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 120 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday .
[ https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The visible solar disk has one very large, two large, one small and six very small active regions containing 48 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1110 micro solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).
[ https://www.solarham.net/regions.htm | www.solarham.net/regions.htm ]
Solar wind speed is likely to be slightly elevated above background levels at 400 km/second or higher through Wednesday.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet with a slight chance active geomagnetic conditions through Wednesday .
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections ]
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes | www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes ]
There is a chance that isolated M-class solar flares may cause isolated minor or greater radio blackouts through Wednesday , mildly degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for tens of minutes during each event.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts ]
Solar radiation storms that can degrade propagation crossing polar regions are not likely through Wednesday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm ]
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be normal after 0015Z through Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded on Monday improving to mostly normal through Wednesday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday. Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen available for daytime ionization degrading daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation in the northern hemisphere from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: [ http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf | http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf ]
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 86 minutes earlier and sunset is 65 minutes later than on March 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
[ https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-ac...aurora-updates | earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates ]
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s latest space weather news is posted at
[ https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov | twitter.com/TamithaSkov ]
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
[ https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html | https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html ]
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at [ http://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php ]
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at [ https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png/ | https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png ]
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at [ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated ]
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | www.hamqsl.com/solar.html ]
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
[ https://prop.kc2g.com/ | https://prop.kc2g.com ]
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength , solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot ]
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at [ http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest | http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest ]
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
[ https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index | https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index ]
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion | www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion ]
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
[ http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 | www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 ]
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
[ http://dx.qsl.net/propagation | http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [ http://www.solarham.com/ | www.solarham.com ]
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