Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through Wednesday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal after midday Wednesday.
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The Tuesday May 7th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 202 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 191 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.
www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has two large, one moderate, two small and four very small active regions containing 58 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1470 micro solar hemispheres (about nine times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be moderately elevated at 500 km/second or more, improving to about 450 km/second or less after midday Wednesday.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Mostly quiet to unsettled are likely through midday Wednesday, improving to mostly quiet through late Wednesday. There is a chance of isolated minor geomagnetic storm conditions early Tuesday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
Minor to moderate radio blackouts are expected through Wednesday caused by M-class solar flares mildly and briefly degrading propagation crossing much of the sunlit side of the Earth. There is a high chance of strong radio blackouts through Wednesday caused by X-class solar flares moderately to strongly degrading propagation crossing most of the sunlit side of the Earth for as much as an hour.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts
There is a chance that weak solar radiation storms may mildly degrade HF propagation crossing polar regions through Wednesday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be normal after 0000Z Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal after midday Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal after midday Wednesday.. Propagation crossing northern high latitude regions is enhanced by the very brief hours of darkness in the northern high latitude F2 region from May through July.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal after midday Wednesday. Propagation crossing northern high latitude regions is enhanced by the very brief hours of darkness in the northern high latitude F2 region from May through July. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal after midday Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday. Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0200Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 68 minutes earlier and sunset is 49 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s Space Weather Briefing is posted on Wednesdays at
www.patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.com
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Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal. Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded then mostly normal after midday Monday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be moderately degraded then mostly normal after midday Monday.
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The Monday May 6th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 165 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday.
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 165 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday.
www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has two large, two moderate, three small and two very small active regions containing 62 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1540 micro solar hemispheres (about nine times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated at about 450 km/second or more, improving to about 400 km/second or less after midday Tuesday.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions are likely through midday Monday, improving to mostly unsettled to active through midday Tuesday, then mostly quiet to unsettled through late Tuesday. There is a slight chance of strong to severe geomagnetic storm conditions early Monday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
Minor to moderate radio blackouts are expected through Tuesday caused by M-class solar flares affecting propagation crossing the sunlit side of the Earth. There is a chance of strong radio blackouts through Tuesday caused by X-class solar flares affecting propagation crossing the sunlit side of the Earth.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts
There is a slight chance that solar radiation storms may mildly degrade HF propagation crossing polar regions through Tuesday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be mostly normal after 0000Z Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded though midday Monday then improving to mostly normal through late Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded though midday Monday then improving to mostly normal through late Tuesday. Propagation crossing northern high latitude regions is enhanced by the very brief hours of darkness in the northern high latitude F2 region from May through July.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded though midday Monday then improving to mostly normal through late Tuesday. Propagation crossing northern high latitude regions is enhanced by the very brief hours of darkness in the northern high latitude F2 region from May through July. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded though midday Monday then improving to mostly normal through late Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday. Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0200Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 67 minutes earlier and sunset is 48 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s Space Weather Briefing is posted on Wednesdays at
www.patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.com
Leave a comment:
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Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal. Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded through midday Saturday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be severely degraded through midday Friday, mildly degraded through early Saturday improving to mostly normal through Sunday.
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The Friday May 3rd W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 143 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 118 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.
www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has three moderate, three small and two very small active regions containing 55 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 760 micro solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated at about 450 km/second or more through Sunday.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled to active through early Saturday, mostly unsettled to active through early Saturday improving to mostly quiet to unsettled through late Sunday. There is a chance of a minor to strong storm geomagnetic storms through midday Friday, a chance of a minor geomagnetic storm early Saturday and a slight chance of a minor geomagnetic storm early Sunday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
Minor to moderate radio blackouts are likely through Sunday caused by M-class solar flares affecting propagation crossing the sunlit side of the Earth. There is a chance of strong radio blackouts through Sunday caused by X-class solar flares affecting propagation crossing the sunlit side of the Earth.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts
There is a slight chance that solar radiation storms may mildly degrade HF propagation crossing polar regions through Sunday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be mildly degraded after 0000Z through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be moderately degraded on Friday, mildly degraded on Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded through midday Friday, mildly degraded through early Saturday improving to mostly normal through late Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded through midday Friday, mildly degraded through early Saturday improving to mostly normal through late Sunday. Propagation crossing northern high latitude regions is enhanced by the very brief hours of darkness in the northern high latitude F2 region from May through July.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded through midday Friday, mildly degraded through early Saturday improving to mostly normal through late Sunday. Propagation crossing northern high latitude regions is enhanced by the very brief hours of darkness in the northern high latitude F2 region from May through July. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be moderately degraded on Friday, mildly degraded on Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be moderately degraded through midday Friday, mildly degraded through early Saturday improving to mostly normal through late Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be moderately degraded on Friday, mildly degraded on Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday. Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0200Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 65 minutes earlier and sunset is 46 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s Space Weather Briefing is posted on Wednesdays at
www.patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.com
Leave a comment:
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Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours from late Thursday through early Friday.
__________________________________________________ _____________
The Thursday May 2nd W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 136 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 104 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.
www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one large and five small active regions containing 44 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 640 micro solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated at about 450 km/second through Friday.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled to active through Friday. There is a chance of a minor geomagnetic storm from late Thursday through early Friday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
Minor to moderate radio blackouts are likely on Thursday declining to a chance on Friday caused by M-class solar flares affecting propagation crossing the sunlit side of the Earth. There is a slight chance of strong radio blackouts through Friday caused by X-class solar flares affecting propagation crossing the sunlit side of the Earth.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts
Solar radiation storms degrading HF propagation crossing polar regions are not expected through Friday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be mildly degraded after 0000Z Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal on Thursday with possible mild degradations on Friday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours from late Thursday to early Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours from late Thursday until early Friday. Propagation crossing northern high latitude regions is enhanced by the very brief hours of darkness in the northern high latitude F2 region from May through July.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours from late Thursday to early Friday. Propagation crossing northern high latitude regions is enhanced by the very brief hours of darkness in the northern high latitude F2 region from May through July. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours from late Thursday to early Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen atoms available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0200Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 63 minutes earlier and sunset is 44 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s Space Weather News is published on Wednesdays at
www.patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.com
Leave a comment:
-
Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal and
propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal
through Thursday.
The Wednesday May 1st W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's
NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the
end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.
All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 133
and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 90
and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.
www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one large, three small and one very small
active region containing 35 sunspots with a total sunspot area of
670 micro solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated at about 450 km/second
through Thursday.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet to unsettled on Wednesday
degrading to unsettled to active on Thursday.
There is a slight chance of a minor geomagnetic storm early Thursday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
Minor to moderate radio blackouts are likely through Thursday caused by
M-class solar flares affecting propagation crossing the sunlit side of the Earth.
There is a slight chance of strong radio blackouts through Thursday caused
by X-class solar flares affecting propagation crossing the sunlit side of the
Earth.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts
Solar radiation storms degrading HF propagation crossing polar regions
are not expected through Thursday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East
and south Asia is likely to be mostly normal after 0000Z Thursday.
Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after
about 0930Z is likely to be normal mostly normal through Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions
is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 30 meter propagation
is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local
noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions
is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. Propagation crossing
northern high latitude regions is enhanced by the very brief hours of
darkness in the northern high latitude F2 region from May through July.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions
is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. Propagation crossing
northern high latitude regions is enhanced by the very brief hours of
darkness in the northern high latitude F2 region from May through July.
17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast
and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal
through Thursday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal
through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North
America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely
to be mostly normal through Thursday. Thermally driven high velocity
winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere
to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral molecular
oxygen available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime
12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation from late spring through
late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused
6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about
1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this
above-the-MUF propagation may be skewed towards the equator.
There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter
F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of
US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8.
3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a
chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier
of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very
slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP
from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5,
FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0200Z. There is a slight
chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and
oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF
F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z
during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then
degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent
article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude
sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at
http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a
southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas
or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a
geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer
duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly
and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz)
with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several
hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and
solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 62 minutes earlier
and sunset is 43 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about
two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of
the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset
is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News
is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s Space Weather News
is published every Wednesday at
www.patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices
is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number
is updated frequently at
www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index
is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index
is updated every three hours at
https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png
UK Met Office's EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast
is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
UK Met Office's Solar Flare Forecast
is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 133
and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 90
and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.
www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one large, three small and one very small
active region containing 35 sunspots with a total sunspot area of
670 micro solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated at about 450 km/second
through Thursday.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet to unsettled on Wednesday
degrading to unsettled to active on Thursday.
There is a slight chance of a minor geomagnetic storm early Thursday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
Minor to moderate radio blackouts are likely through Thursday caused by
M-class solar flares affecting propagation crossing the sunlit side of the Earth.
There is a slight chance of strong radio blackouts through Thursday caused
by X-class solar flares affecting propagation crossing the sunlit side of the
Earth.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts
Solar radiation storms degrading HF propagation crossing polar regions
are not expected through Thursday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and
the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East
and south Asia is likely to be mostly normal after 0000Z Thursday.
Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after
about 0930Z is likely to be normal mostly normal through Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions
is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.
Leave a comment:
-
Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal and propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be normal on Tuesday degrading to mostly normal on Wednesday.
__________________________________________________ _____________
The Tuesday April 30th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 134 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 121 and is likely to decline slightly through Wednesday.
www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one large, three small and two very small active regions containing 28 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 650 micro solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated at about 450 km/second through Wednesday caused by coronal hole high speed stream effects.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet degrading to unsettled to active after early Wednesday. There is a very slight chance of a minor geomagnetic storm late Wednesday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
There is a chance through Wednesday of minor to moderate radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares affecting propagation crossing the sunlit side of the Earth.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts
Solar radiation storms degrading HF propagation crossing polar regions are not expected through Wednesday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be normal after 0000Z Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal on Tuesday degrading to mostly normal on Wednesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Tuesday degrading to mostly normal on Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Tuesday degrading to mostly normal on Wednesday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Tuesday degrading to mostly normal on Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be on Tuesday degrading to mostly normal on Wednesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal on Tuesday degrading to mostly normal on Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Tuesday degrading to mostly normal on Wednesday. Thermally driven summer winds in the F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral molecular oxygen available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation from late spring through late summer
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0200Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 61 minutes earlier and sunset is 42 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Space Weather News is published every Wednesday at
www.patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.netLeave a comment:
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Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal and propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.
__________________________________________________ _____________
The Monday April 29th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 143 and is likely to decline to about 135 by Tuesday
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 121 and is likely to decline slightly through Tuesday.
www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one large, three small and four very small active regions containing 39 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 510 micro solar hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated at about 450 km/second or more through Tuesday caused by coronal hole high speed stream effects and possible effects of multiple weak CMEs passing in close proximity to the Earth.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet with brief mildly unsettled intervals through Tuesday. There is a very slight chance of a minor geomagnetic storm caused by possible effects of multiple weak CMEs passing in close proximity to the Earth through Tuesday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
Minor to moderate radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth caused by M-class solar flares are expected through Tuesday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts
Solar radiation storms degrading HF propagation crossing polar regions are not expected through Tuesday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be normal after 0000Z Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and normal on Tuesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Tuesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Tuesday. Thermally driven summer winds in the F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral molecular oxygen available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation mostly from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0200Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 60 minutes earlier and sunset is 41 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Space Weather News is published every Wednesday at
www.patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
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Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Sunday.
Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday
Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal
with below normal intervals during local nighttime hours early Sunday
__________________________________________________ _____________
The Friday April 26th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.
All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 167 and is likely to decline to about 135 on Sunday.
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 161 and is likely to decline through Sunday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has five medium, four small and five very small active regions containing 71 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1070 micro solar hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth). The most significant upsurge in sunspot activity since January 2023 has come to an end as the most active sunspots have rotated behind the visible solar disk.
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels of about 400 km/second or less through about midday Thursday, mildly increasing to above 400 km/second through midday Sunday caused by possible effects of multiple weak CMEs in close proximity to the Earth. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be unsettled to active through Sunday. There is a slight chance of a minor geomagnetic storm early Sunday caused by possible effects of multiple weak CMEs in close proximity to the Earth.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
Minor to moderate radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth caused by M-class solar flares are expected through Sunday. There is a slight chance of strong radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth caused by X-class solar flares through Sunday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts
There is a chance that minor solar radiation storms may weakly degrade HF propagation crossing polar regions through Sunday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be mostly normal after 0000Z through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals during local nighttime hours early Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals during local nighttime hours early Sunday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals during local nighttime hours early Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals during local nighttime hours early Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Thermally driven summer winds in the F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral molecular oxygen available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation mostly from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0200Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 57 minutes earlier and sunset is 39 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
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Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Friday. Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals during local nighttime hours early Friday
__________________________________________________ _____________
The Thursday April 25th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 193 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Friday.
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 261 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Friday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has six medium, five small and five very small active regions containing 123 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1500 micro solar hemispheres (about nine times the surface area of the Earth). The most significant upsurge in sunspot activity since January 2023 is steadily declining as the most active sunspots have rotated behind the visible solar disk.
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels of about 400 km/second or less through about midday Thursday, mildly increasing to above 400 km/second through midday Friday because of coronal hole high speed stream effects and the effects of glancing blows by multiple weak CMEs.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be unsettled to active through Friday. There is a slight chance of a minor geomagnetic storm from late Thursday through midday Friday because of the possible effects of glancing blows by multiple weak CMEs.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
Minor to moderate radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth caused by M-class solar flares are expected through Friday. There is a slight chance of strong radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth caused by X-class solar flares through Friday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts
There is a slight chance that minor solar radiation storms may weakly degrade HF propagation crossing polar regions through Friday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be mostly below normal after 0000Z Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals on Thursday and mostly normal on Friday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals during local nighttime hours early Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals during local nighttime hours early Friday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals during local nighttime hours early Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly below normal on Thursday and mostly normal on Friday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals during local nighttime hours early Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly below normal on Thursday and mostly normal on Friday. Thermally driven summer winds in the F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral molecular oxygen available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation mostly from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0200Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 55 minutes earlier and sunset is 37 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
-
Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through Thursday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be normal degrading to mostly normal with possible below normal intervals by midday Thursday __________________________________________________ _____________
The Wednesday April 24th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 219 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday.
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 280 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has eight medium, one small and six very small active regions containing 132 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1470 micro solar hemispheres (about nine times the surface area of the Earth). We’re in the midst of the most significant upsurge in sunspot activity since January 2023.
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels of about 400 km/second or less through early Thursday mildly increasing to above 400 km/second by midday Thursday because of coronal hole high speed stream effects and the possible effects of glancing blows by multiple weak CMEs.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet to unsettled, degrading to unsettled to active by Thursday. There is a slight chance of a minor geomagnetic storm late Wednesday and an increasing chance by midday Thursday because of the possible effects of glancing blows by multiple weak CMEs.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
Minor to moderate radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth caused by M-class solar flares are expected through Thursday. There is a slight chance of strong radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth caused by X-class solar flares through Thursday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts
There is a chance that minor solar radiation storms may affect HF propagation crossing polar regions through Thursday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be mostly normal after 0000Z Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday and mostly below normal on Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal degrading to mostly normal with possible below normal intervals by midday Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal degrading to mostly normal with possible below normal intervals by midday Thursday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal degrading to mostly normal with possible below normal intervals by midday Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday and mostly below normal on Thursday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal degrading to mostly normal with possible below normal intervals by midday Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday and mostly below normal on Thursday. Thermally driven summer winds in the F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral molecular oxygen available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation mostly from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0200Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 53 minutes earlier and sunset is 36 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
Leave a comment: