HF Propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal through Sunday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with periods of minor degradation mostly during local nighttime hours through Sunday.
__________________________________________________ _____________
The March 29th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 171 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged on Friday and Saturday declining to about 155 on Sunday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-emissions
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 100 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged on Friday and Saturday declining to about 90 on Sunday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one very large, two small and two very small active regions containing 51 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1150 micro solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/sunspotssolar-cycle
Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels at about 400 km/second or less with periods of weak enhancement through Sunday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet with isolated unsettled intervals through Sunday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days and auroras are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
earthsky.org/sun/aurora-season-auroras-equinox-connection
Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are expected on Friday and Saturday. There is a chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares on Friday and Saturday,
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts
There is a chance that minor solar radiation storms accelerated from very large solar region 3615 by solar flares and their associated CMEs may cause mostly below normal propagation crossing polar regions on Friday and Saturday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2330Z is likely to be normal through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Friday and Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Friday and Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 16 minutes earlier and sunset is 10 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
The EarthSky Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
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HF Propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal through Saturday while propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be normal on Thursday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Saturday.
__________________________________________________ _____________
The March 28th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 174 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Friday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-emissions
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 111 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Friday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one very large, one large, one small and three very small active regions containing 54 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1270 micro solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/sunspotssolar-cycle
Solar wind speed is likely to steadily decline to less than 500 km/second on Thursday and to background levels less than 400 km/second on Friday and Saturday as CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects continue to wane.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet on Thursday with isolated unsettled intervals on Friday and Saturday due to minor coronal hole high speed stream effects.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days and auroras are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
earthsky.org/sun/aurora-season-auroras-equinox-connection
Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are expected through Friday. There is a chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Friday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts
There is a chance that minor solar radiation storms accelerated from very large solar region 3615 by solar flares and their associated CMEs may cause mostly below normal propagation crossing polar regions through Saturday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Saturday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2330Z is likely to be normal on Thursday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Saturday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Saturday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to normal on Thursday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to normal through Saturday.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 13 minutes earlier and sunset is 8 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
The EarthSky Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
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HF Propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal through Friday while propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday, normal on Thursday and mostly normal on Friday.
__________________________________________________ _____________
The March 27th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 177 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Friday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-emissions
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 142 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one very large, one large, two small and four very small active regions containing 69 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1480 micro solar hemispheres (about eight times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/sunspotssolar-cycle
Solar wind speed is likely to decline to less than 500 km/second before midday Wednesday and less than 400 km/second on Thursday and Friday as CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects wane.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet on Wednesday, quiet on Thursday and mostly quiet on Friday as CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects wane.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days and auroras are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
earthsky.org/sun/aurora-season-auroras-equinox-connection
Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are expected through Thursday. There is a chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Thursday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts
There is a chance that minor solar radiation storms accelerated from very large solar region 3615 by solar flares and their associated CMEs may cause mostly below normal propagation crossing polar regions through Friday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2330Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday and Thursday and mostly normal on Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal through Friday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday and Thursday and mostly normal on Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday and Thursday and mostly normal on Friday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday and Thursday and mostly normal on Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to normal on Wednesday and Thursday and mostly normal on Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to mostly normal through Friday.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 12 minutes earlier and sunset is 7 minutes later than they were on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
The EarthSky Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2100 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
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HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday then normal through Thursday. HF propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday, mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday
__________________________________________________ _____________
The March 26th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 190 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 166 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one very large, two large, three small and two very small active regions containing 83 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1540 micro solar hemispheres (about eight times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to steadily decline below 600 km/second on Tuesday, below 500 km/second by early Wednesday and below 400 km/second by late Wednesday due to steadily waning CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled to active through late Tuesday, quiet to unsettled through early Wednesday, mostly quiet through late Wednesday and quiet during Thursday.
We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days and auroras are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
earthsky.org/sun/aurora-season-auroras-equinox-connection
Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are expected through Thursday. There is a chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Thursday.
There is a chance that highly energetic charged particles radiating from very large solar region 3615 may produce solar radiation storms causing mostly below normal propagation crossing polar regions through Tuesday and a slight risk of below normal propagation crossing polar regions through Thursday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday then improving to normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday then improving to normal on Wednesday and Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday improving to normal on Wednesday and Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday, improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday, improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday, improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, improving to normal on Wednesday and Thursday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to mostly normal on Tuesday, improving to normal on Wednesday and Thursday.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is ten minutes earlier and sunset is six minutes later than it was on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
The EarthSky Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2100 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
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Propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals through midday Tuesday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly below normal gradually improving after midday Tuesday
__________________________________________________ _____________
The March 25th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 197 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Tuesday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 165 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Tuesday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one very large, two large, two small and two very small active regions containing 75 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1250 micro solar hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to remain below about 700 km/second gradually declining to less than 500 km/second by 1200Z Tuesday due to moderating CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects.
There is a chance of minor geomagnetic storms through midday Monday and slight change of a moderate geomagnetic storm through about 0900Z Monday. Geomagnetic activity is likely to moderate to mostly unsettled to active from midday Monday through midday Tuesday. There is a chance of a brief minor geomagnetic storm early Tuesday. Geomagnetic activity is likely to significantly moderate to quiet to unsettled after midday Tuesday.
We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days and auroras are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
earthsky.org/sun/aurora-season-auroras-equinox-connection
Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are expected through Tuesday. There is a chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Tuesday.
Highly energetic charged particles originating in very large solar region 3615 accelerated to speeds approaching 100,000 km/second are expected to produce minor or greater solar radiation storms causing below normal propagation crossing polar regions on Monday slightly improving to mostly below normal on Tuesday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal improving to mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals from midday Monday though Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be is likely to be mostly below normal improving to mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals from midday Monday though Tuesday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal improving to mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals from midday Monday though Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday improving mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals on Tuesday
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly below normal improving to mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals from midday Monday though Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday improving mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals on Tuesday.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from mid afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is eight minutes earlier and sunset is five minutes later than it was on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
The EarthSky Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2100 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
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HF propagation is likely to be mostly normal but propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded after about 1200Z Sunday March 24th.
__________________________________________________ _____________
The March 22nd W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 189 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Sunday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 158 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Sunday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one very large, four large, two small and two very small active regions containing 51 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1060 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to remain below about 350 km/second through about 1200Z Sunday, then gradually rising above about 400 km/second due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be unsettled through about 1200Z Friday, then improving to mostly quiet through about 1200Z Sunday when unsettled to active geomagnetic activity is likely due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.
We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days and auroras are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
earthsky.org/sun/aurora-season-auroras-equinox-connection
There is a chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Sunday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday and mildly degraded on Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be to be mostly normal then becoming mildly degraded after about 1200Z Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be to be mostly normal then becoming mildly degraded after about 1200Z Sunday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal then becoming mildly degraded after about 1200Z Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Friday, mostly normal on Saturday and mildly degraded on Sunday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal then becoming mildly degraded after about 1200Z Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Friday, mostly normal on Saturday and mildly degraded on Sunday.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is two minutes earlier and sunset is one minute later than it was on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
The EarthSky Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2100 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
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The March 21st W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.
All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 181 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 174 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one very large, one large, three small and two very small active regions containing 50 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 730 micro solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to remain below 400 km/second through Saturday.
There is a chance that geomagnetic activity may be unsettled to active through late Thursday due to possible influence of a grazing weak CME and a slight chance that a minor geomagnetic storm may be triggered if the north-south component the interplanetary magnetic field is oriented southward during influence of a grazing weak CME. If CME influence is minimal, geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled on Thursday. Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet on Friday and Saturday.
We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days and auroras are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
earthsky.org/sun/aurora-season-auroras-equinox-connection
There is a chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares and a slight chance of a strong radio blackout caused by an X-class solar flare through Saturday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Saturday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal through Saturday but there is slight chance of mild degradation on Thursday due possible influence of a grazing weak CME.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be to be normal through Saturday but there is a slight chance of mild degradation on Thursday due to possible influence of a grazing weak CME. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be to be normal through Saturday but there is a slight chance of mild degradation on Thursday due to possible influence of a grazing weak CME.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be to be normal through Saturday but there is a slight chance of mild degradation on Thursday due to possible influence of a grazing weak CME. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be to be normal through Saturday but there is slight chance of mild degradation on Thursday due to possible influence of a grazing weak CME.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through Saturday but there is a slight chance of mild degradation on Thursday due possible influence of a grazing weak CME. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday but there is a slight chance of mild degradation on Thursday due to possible influence of a grazing weak CME.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 74 minutes earlier and sunset is 93 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
The EarthSky Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2100 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
_._,_._,_Leave a comment:
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The March 20th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 167 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 126 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has two large, two small and three very small active regions containing 69 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 680 micro solar hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to remain below 400 km/second through
midday Wednesday when arrival of a weak CME is likely to
increase solar wind speed to above 400 km/second through Thursday.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet through midday Wednesday when arrival of a weak CME is likely to increase geomagnetic activity to unsettled to active through midday Thursday. There is a chance of one or more minor geomagnetic storms if the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) turns southward (-Bz) between late Wednesday and midday Thursday.
We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days and auroras are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
earthsky.org/sun/aurora-season-auroras-equinox-connection
There is a chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class and X-class solar flares through Thursday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday and mildly to moderately degraded on Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Wednesday, mildly to moderately degraded through midday Thursday then gradually improving to normal by late Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Wednesday, mildly to moderately degraded through midday Thursday then gradually improving to normal by late Thursday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Wednesday, mildly to moderately degraded through midday Thursday then gradually improving to normal by late Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday and mildly to moderately degraded on Thursday,
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through midday Wednesday, mildly to moderately degraded through midday Thursday then gradually improving to normal by late Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday and mildly to moderately degraded on Thursday,
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 72 minutes earlier and sunset is 92 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
The EarthSky Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2100 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
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The March 19th W3LPL propagation forecast was derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 168 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 126 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has three large, two small and two very small active regions containing 57 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 580 micro solar hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to remain below 400 km/second through midday Wednesday when weak CME arrival is likely to increase solar wind speed to above 400 km/second through Thursday
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet through midday Wednesday. Arrival of a weak CME is likely to increase geomagnetic activity to unsettled to active by midday Wednesday. There is a chance of a minor geomagnetic storm if the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) turns southward (-Bz) late Wednesday.
We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
earthsky.org/sun/aurora-season-auroras-equinox-connection
There is a chance of minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Wednesday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal on Tuesday mildly degrading to mostly normal on Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal, mildly degrading to mostly normal after midday Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal, mildly degrading to mostly normal after midday Wednesday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal, mildly degrading to mostly normal after midday Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal, mildly degrading to mostly normal after midday Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 70 minutes earlier and sunset is 92 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
The EarthSky Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at
www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2100 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at
https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
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Some of the best HF propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely through midday Wednesday March 20th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 155 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 84 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one large, one small and four very small active regions containing 26 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 290 micro solar hemispheres (about 50% larger than the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to decline to about 300 km/second or less through midday Wednesday when there is a chance increased solar wind speed caused by a glancing blow by a CME.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet through midday Wednesday when there is a chance of increased geomagnetic activity caused by a glancing blow by a CME.
There is a slight chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares through Tuesday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through midday Wednesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Wednesday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through midday Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly to be normal through Wednesday
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 68 minutes earlier and sunset is 90 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2100 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
Leave a comment: