Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded improving to mostly normal by midday Saturday. Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday March 15th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 127 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 69 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday,
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has two small and five very small active regions containing 28 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 240 micro solar hemispheres (about 25% larger than the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to remain above 450 km/second through midday Saturday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects and a chance of a grazing CME, improving to about 400 km/second or less after midday Saturday.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet to active with occasional minor geomagnetic storm conditions on Friday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects and a grazing CME. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on Saturday improving to mostly quiet on Sunday.
There is a slight chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares through Sunday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be moderately to mildly disturbed on Friday then improving to mostly normal through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be moderately disturbed on Friday then improving to mostly normal through Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately to mildly disturbed on Friday, then improving to mostly normal through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately to mildly disturbed on Friday then improving to mostly normal through Sunday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to mildly to moderately to mildly disturbed on Friday then improving to mostly normal through Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly disturbed on Friday then improving to be mostly normal through Sunday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be moderately to mildly disturbed on Friday then improving to mostly normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly to be mildly disturbed on Friday then improving to mostly normal through Sunday,
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 65 minutes earlier and sunset is 88 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
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HF propagation at low and mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded though midday Thursday improving to mostly normal through Friday March 15th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 131 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 80 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday,
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one large, one small and three very small active regions containing 18 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 320 micro solar hemispheres (about 1.6 times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to remain above 400 km/second gradually rising above 450 km/second by midday Friday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects and a chance of a grazing CME.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet to unsettled through Friday. There is a chance of isolated active geomagnetic activity through midday Thursday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects and a chance of a grazing CME.
There is a slight chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares through Friday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the middle east and south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Thursday improving to mostly normal on Friday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through midday Thursday improving to mostly normal through Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through midday Thursday improving to mostly normal through Friday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to mildly to moderately degraded through midday Thursday improving to mostly normal through Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Thursday improving to mostly normal on Friday,
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through midday Thursday improving to mostly normal through Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Thursday improving to mostly normal on Friday,
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 62 minutes earlier and sunset is 86 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days are almost twice as likely and disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at: https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
Leave a comment:
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HF propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance that propagation crossing high latitudes may be mildly degraded after midday Thursday March 14th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 131 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 82 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday,
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one large and three very small active regions containing 27 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 190 micro solar hemispheres (about the same as the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to remain above 400 km/second gradually rising above 450 km/second after midday Thursday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects and a chance of a grazing CME.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet degrading to quiet to unsettled with a slight chance of a brief minor geomagnetic storm after midday Thursday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects and a chance of a grazing CME.
There is a slight chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares through Thursday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday with a chance of mild degradation on Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation after midday Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation after midday Thursday
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation after midday Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation after midday Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 60 minutes earlier and sunset is 85 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
We are in the equinox season when disturbed geomagnetic days are almost twice as likely and longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at: https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
Leave a comment:
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HF propagation is likely to be near normal through at least midday Thursday March 14th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 127 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 70 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday,
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one large and three very small active regions containing 27 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 190 micro solar hemispheres (about the same as the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to decline to less than 400 km/second on Tuesday, gradually rising to about 400 km/second or more by midday Thursday.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet through midday Thursday.
There is a slight chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares through Thursday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be near normal through Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be near normal through Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be near normal through at least midday Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be near normal through at least midday Thursday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be near normal through at least midday Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be near normal through Thursday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be near normal through at least midday Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be near normal through Thursday
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 58 minutes earlier and sunset is 84 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
We are in the equinox season when disturbed geomagnetic days are almost twice as likely and longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at: https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
Leave a comment:
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HF propagation is likely to be mostly normal on Monday improving to near normal on Tuesday March 12th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 127 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 80 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one large and four very small active regions containing 27 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 280 micro-hemispheres (about 1.5 times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to decline to less than 400 km/second on Tuesday, steadily declining to about 350 km/second or less by Tuesday.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled on Monday and mostly quiet on Tuesday.
There is a chance of minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares through Tuesday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and near normal on Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be normal on Monday and near normal on Tuesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and near normal on Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and near normal on Tuesday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and near normal on Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and near normal on Tuesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and near normal on Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and near normal on Tuesday.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 57 minutes earlier and sunset is 83 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days are almost twice as likely and longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at: https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
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Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal, degrading to mostly normal from midday Friday through late Saturday, then improving to normal through late Sunday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations from midday Friday through early Sunday March 10th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 136 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 95 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one large, two small and four very small active regions containing 29 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 370 micro-hemispheres (about two times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to remain mildly elevated at about 500 km/second or less through late Saturday then gradually declining to about 400 km/second or less through late Sunday.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet through midday Friday, degrading to unsettled to active with a possible minor geomagnetic storm through midday Saturday due to weak coronal hole high speed stream and grazing CME effects. Geomagnetic activity
is likely to be mostly unsettled through late Saturday, gradually improving to mostly quiet through late Sunday.
There is a chance of minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares through Sunday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be normal on Friday, mildly degraded on Saturday, improving to normal on Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations from midday Friday through late Saturday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations from midday Friday through late Saturday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations from midday Friday through late Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be normal on Friday, mostly normal on Saturday and normal on Sunday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations from midday Friday through late Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be normal on Friday, mostly normal on Saturday and normal on Sunday.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 55 minutes earlier and sunset is 81 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
We are in the equinox season when active and geomagnetic storm conditions are about twice as likely and longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at: https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
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Some of the best HF propagation of the Solar Maximum phase of Solar Cycle 25 is likely through midday Friday slowly degrading to mostly normal through late Friday March 8th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 136 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 100 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has two large, four small and two very small active regions containing 25 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 510 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to remain near background levels of about 400 km/second or less through Friday.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet through midday Friday degrading to unsettled to active through late Friday.
There is a chance of minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares through Friday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal on Thursday and mostly normal on Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be normal through Friday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Friday gradually degrading to mostly normal through late Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Friday gradually degrading to mostly normal through late Friday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Friday gradually degrading to mostly normal through late Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be normal through Friday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through midday Friday gradually degrading to mostly normal through late Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be normal through Friday.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 53 minutes earlier and sunset is 80 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
We are in the equinox season when active and geomagnetic storm conditions are about twice as likely and longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at: https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
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Some of the best HF propagation of the Solar Maximum phase of Solar Cycle 25 is likely through Friday March 8th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 144 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 110 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one large, six small and three very small active regions containing 26 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 560 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to remain near background levels of about 400 km/second or less through Friday.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet through Friday.
There is a chance of minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares through Friday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be normal through Friday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Friday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be normal through Friday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be normal through Friday.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 52 minutes earlier and sunset is 79 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
We are in the equinox season when active and geomagnetic storm conditions are about twice as likely and longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_images/uk_ral_euhforia_earth.mp4#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at: https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot
Leave a comment:
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Some of the best HF propagation of the Solar Maximum phase of Solar Cycle 25 is likely through at least Friday March 8th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 143 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Friday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 105 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Friday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has two large, one small and six very small active regions containing 23 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 480 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely remain near background levels below 400 km/second through at least Friday.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet through at least Friday.
There is a chance of minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares through at least Friday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Friday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Friday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through at least Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 50 minutes earlier and sunset is 78 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
We are in the equinox season when active and geomagnetic storm conditions are about twice as likely and longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at: https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
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Propagation is likely to be mostly poor at high latitudes and mostly fair at mid-latitudes through midday Monday. Propagation is likely to improve to mostly normal through late Monday then improving to normal through at least Wednesday March 6th. by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
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My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 145 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 105 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has two large, two small and three very small active regions containing 20 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 530 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to remain at 400 km/second or less through at least Wednesday due recent CME effects gradually declining to near background levels through at least Wednesday.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be unsettled to active with minor geomagnetic storm intervals through midday Monday due to negative polarity (-Bz) interplanetary magnetic field caused by CME activity. Geomagnetic activity is likely to improve to quiet to unsettled after midday Monday and further improving to quiet from Tuesday through at least Wednesday.
Minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares are likely through at least Wednesday
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Wednesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday then improving to normal through at least Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday then improving to normal from Tuesday through at least Wednesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Monday then improving to mostly normal through late Monday and further improving to normal from Tuesday through at least Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Monday then improving to mostly normal through late Monday and further improving to normal from Tuesday through at least Wednesday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Monday then improving to mostly normal through late Monday and further improving to normal from Tuesday through at least Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday improving to normal from Tuesday through at least Wednesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Monday then improving to mostly normal through late Monday and further improving to normal from Tuesday through at least Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday improving to normal from Tuesday through at least Wednesday.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 48 minutes earlier and sunset is 77 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
We are in the equinox season when active and geomagnetic storm conditions are about twice as likely and longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at: https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.netLeave a comment:
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