W3LPL Propagation forecast

[4L5A]

Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance that propagation crossing high latitudes may be mildly degraded through Thursday January 3rd by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

SWPC’s four day solar wind prediction is updated daily at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ws...ind-prediction

N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 4 minutes later and sunset is 9 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are likely with a chance of strong to severe daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Thursday.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 142 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 64 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday. The solar visible disk has one large, one medium and two tiny active regions containing 19 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 300 micro-hemispheres (about 50% larger than the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

Lingering coronal hole high speed stream effects are likely to maintain solar wind at about 400 km/second through midday Wednesday, gradually slowing to background levels well below 400 km/second by Thursday.

Lingering coronal hole high speed stream effects are likely to maintain mostly quiet to unsettled activity through midday Wednesday, improving to mostly quiet conditions through Thursday as coronal high speed stream effects wane.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are less severe and about half as likely as during the equinox seasons and geomagnetically quiet periods are much more frequent and long lasting than during the equinox seasons.

There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2200-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Propagation is likely to be mostly normal but propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded through midday Wednesday January 2nd by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

SWPC’s four day solar wind prediction is updated daily at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ws...ind-prediction

N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 4 minutes later and sunset is 8 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are likely with a chance of strong to severe radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Wednesday.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 135 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 51 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday. The solar visible disk has two medium and one tiny active region containing 14 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 210 micro-hemispheres (about the same as the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

Coronal hole high speed stream and CME effects are likely to produce high speed solar wind well above 500 km/second before 0800Z Tuesday, gradually waning to below 500 km/second by midday Wednesday.

Coronal hole high speed stream and CME effects are likely to produce geomagnetic activity at minor storm levels through midday Tuesday, improving to unsettled to active conditions through midday Wednesday. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely after midday Wednesday as coronal high speed stream and CME effects gradually wane.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Tuesday then mostly normal on Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded through midday Wednesday then mostly normal through late Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded through midday Wednesday then mostly normal through late Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded through midday Wednesday then mostly normal through late Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mildly degraded through midday Wednesday then mostly normal through late Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are less severe and about half as likely as during the equinox seasons and geomagnetically quiet periods are much more frequent and long lasting than during the equinox seasons.

There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2200-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Propagation is likely to be mostly normal but propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded from midday Monday through midday Tuesday January 2nd by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

The Penticton solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

SWPC’s four day solar wind prediction is updated daily at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ws...ind-prediction

N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 4 minutes later and sunset is 7 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are probable through Tuesday. There is a chance of strong to severe X-class solar flares through Tuesday.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 146 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 55 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday. The solar visible disk has three medium and two tiny active regions containing 15 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 380 micro-hemispheres (about twice the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to increase to about 450 km/second due to waning coronal hole high speed stream effects due to Coronal hole high speed stream effects through Tuesday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled through midday Monday. Coronal hole high speed stream effects are likely to produce unsettled to active conditions through midday Tuesday improving to mostly quiet through late Tuesday as coronal hole high speed stream activity wanes.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mild degraded on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with periods of mild degradation from midday Monday through midday Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with periods of mild degradation from midday Monday through midday Tuesday

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with periods of mild degradation from midday Monday through midday Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with periods of mild degradation from midday Monday through midday Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal throughTuesday.

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons and geomagnetically quiet periods are much more frequent than during the equinox seasons.

There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL from about 2200-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance that propagation crossing high latitudes may be mildly degraded during Saturday December 23rd by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 88 minutes later and sunset is 76 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Saturday.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 195 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 160 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday. The solar visible disk has one very large, one large, five medium and two tiny active regions containing 43 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1285 micro-hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to return to a slow solar wind regime at 400 km/second or less through late Friday due to waning coronal hole high speed stream effects. Coronal hole high speed stream effects are likely to weakly enhance the solar wind through midday Saturday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled through Thursday improving to mostly quiet on Friday. Coronal hole high speed stream effects are likely to produce unsettled to active geomagnetic activity through midday Saturday, declining to quiet to unsettled after midday Saturday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Saturday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday.

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons and geomagnetically quiet periods are much more frequent than during the equinox seasons.

There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL from about 2200-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Propagation is likely to be normal through Thursday but propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded through Thursday December 21st by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 87 minutes later and sunset is 76 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Thursday.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 181 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 174 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday. The solar visible disk has one large, four medium and five tiny active regions containing 44 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 750 micro-hemispheres (about four time the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to remain enhanced at 500 km/second or more through Thursday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects and a chance of CME influence.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active intervals through Thursday and a chance of an isolated minor geomagnetic storm on Wednesday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects and a chance of CME influence.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly degraded periods through Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly degraded periods through Thursday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly degraded periods through Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly degraded periods through Thursday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly degraded periods through Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly degraded periods through Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly degraded periods through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly degraded periods through Thursday.

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons and geomagnetically quiet periods are much more frequent than during the equinox seasons.

There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL from about 2200-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Propagation is likely to be mildly degraded on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday but propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be moderately degraded on Tuesday and mildly degraded on Wednesday December 19th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 86 minutes later and sunset is 77 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares on Tuesday and a slight chance on Wednesday.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 165 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 145 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Wednesday. The solar visible disk has five medium and four tiny active regions containing 47 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 390 micro-hemispheres (about twice the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to remain mildly enhanced at 450 km/second or more through at least Wednesday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects and a chance of CME influence.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance of isolated minor geomagnetic storm periods through Wednesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly to moderately degraded periods through Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly degraded periods through Wednesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly to moderately degraded periods through Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly to moderately degraded periods through Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly to moderately degraded periods through Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly to moderately degraded periods through Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly to moderately degraded periods through Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly to moderately degraded periods through Wednesday.

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons and geomagnetically quiet periods are much more frequent than during the equinox seasons.

There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL from about 2200-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance that propagation crossing high latitudes may experience mild degradation through Tuesday December 19th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 85 minutes later and sunset is 77 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares on Monday and a slight chance on Tuesday.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 154 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 129 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Tuesday. The solar visible disk has three medium and six tiny active regions containing 39 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 400 micro-hemispheres (about twice the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to remain mildly enhanced at 450 km/second or more through at least Tuesday due to persistent CME activity.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled to active with a chance of active geomagnetic activity and isolated minor geomagnetic storm periods through Tuesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly degraded periods through Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly degraded periods through Tuesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly degraded periods through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly degraded periods through Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly degraded periods through Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly degraded periods through Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly degraded periods through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly degraded periods through Tuesday.

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons and geomagnetically quiet periods are much more frequent than during the equinox seasons.

There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL from about 2200-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance that propagation crossing high latitudes may be mildly degraded through Saturday with possible mild to moderate degradation on Sunday December 17th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 84 minutes later and sunset is 78 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Sunday and a slight chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class and strong M-class solar flares through Saturday.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 148 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 122 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Sunday. The solar visible disk has one very large, one large, two medium and four tiny active regions containing 46 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 940 micro-hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to remain weakly enhanced at 450 km/second or more through at least Saturday due to combined effects of coronal hole high speed streams and CMEs. There is a chance that solar wind speeds may become mildly elevated at 500 km/second or more by Sunday due to possible combined effects of multiple CMEs.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance of minor geomagnetic storm periods and a slight chance of stronger geomagnetic storms on Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly to moderately degraded periods through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly to moderately degraded periods through Sunday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly to moderately degraded periods through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly to moderately degraded periods through Sunday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly to moderately degraded periods through Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly to moderately degraded periods through Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly to moderately degraded periods through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mildly to moderately degraded periods through Sunday.

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons and geomagnetically quiet periods are much more frequent than during the equinox seasons.

There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL from about 2200-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

[4L5A]

Propagation is likely to be mostly normal but there is a chance that propagation crossing high latitudes may experience periods of mild to moderate degradation through Friday December 15th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 83 minutes later and sunset is 79 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are likely through Friday.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 136 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Saturday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 132 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Saturday. The solar visible disk has one large, four medium and three tiny active regions containing 34 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 580 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to remain at background levels of less than 400 km/second through at least midday Wednesday gradually increasing to mildly elevated at up to 500 km/second by late Friday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance of minor geomagnetic storm periods through Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of degraded periods through Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of degraded periods through Friday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of degraded periods through Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of degraded periods through Friday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of degraded periods through Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of degraded periods through Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of degraded periods through Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of degraded periods through Friday.

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons and geomagnetically quiet periods are much more frequent than during the equinox seasons.

There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL from about 2200-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday December 14th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
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My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 82 minutes later and sunset is 79 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are likely through Thursday.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 126 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 113 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Saturday. The solar visible disk has three medium and three tiny active regions containing 20 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 240 micro-hemispheres (about the same as the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to remain at background levels of less than 400 km/second through at least midday Wednesday gradually increasing to mildly elevated at up to 500 km/second through Thursday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active intervals through Thursday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons and geomagnetically quiet periods are much more frequent than during the equinox seasons.

There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL from about 2200-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation