Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday but propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to experience mildly degraded intervals during Wednesday December 13th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 81 minutes later and sunset is 79 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
Isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are likely through Thursday.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 126 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 91 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday. The solar visible disk has one large, two medium and three tiny active regions containing 27 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 360 micro-hemispheres (about two times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to be at background levels of less than 400 km/second during Tuesday then increasing to mildly elevated at 500 km/second or more during Wednesday and Thursday.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled through Thursday with an increased chance of active intervals during Wednesday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.
We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons and geomagnetically quiet periods are much more frequent than during the equinox seasons.
There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL from about 2200-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
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Propagation is likely to be mostly normal but propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to experience mildly degraded intervals through Tuesday December 12th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 80 minutes later and sunset is 79 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
Isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are likely through at least Tuesday.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 126 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through at least Tuesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 131 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through at least Tuesday. The solar visible disk has one large, three medium and four tiny active regions containing 40 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 550 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated to 450 to 500 km/second through at least Tuesday.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled with a slight chance of active intervals through Tuesday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through at least Tuesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through at least Tuesday.
We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons.
There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL from about 2200-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
Leave a comment:
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Some of the best HF propagation of the last 20 years is likely through at least Sunday December 10th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 79 minutes later and sunset is 79 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through at least Sunday.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 135 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through at least Sunday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 130 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through at least Sunday. The solar visible disk has six medium and two tiny active regions containing 41 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 710 micro-hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels of 400 km/second or less through at least Sunday.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly at background levels through at least Sunday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Sunday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be normal through at least Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through at least Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Sunday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least Sunday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through at least Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least Sunday.
We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons.
There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL from about 2200-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
Leave a comment:
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Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a slight chance that a CME may mildly degrade propagation crossing high latitudes during local nighttime hours through early Friday December 8th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 78 minutes later and sunset is 79 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
There is a chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through at least Friday.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 133 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through at least Friday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 161 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through at least Friday. The solar visible disk has one large, five medium and two tiny active regions containing 45 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 780 micro-hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Coronal hole high speed stream effects are likely to continue to decline, decreasing solar wind speed to less than 500 km/second through Friday.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly at background levels with a slight chance that a CME may mildly degrade propagation crossing high latitudes during local nighttime hours through early Friday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal with a slight chance of mild degradation on Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal with a slight chance of mild degradation through Friday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a slight chance of mild degradation through early Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a slight chance of mild degradation through early Friday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a slight chance of mild degradation through early Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to mostly normal with a slight chance of mild degradation through early Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal though Friday.
We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons.
There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL from about 2200-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
Leave a comment:
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Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance that a CME may mildly to moderately degrade propagation after midday Thursday December 7th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 77 minutes later and sunset is 79 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
There is a chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through at least Thursday.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 140 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through at least Thursday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 141 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through at least Thursday. The solar visible disk has seven medium and one tiny active region containing 53 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 800 micro-hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Coronal hole high speed stream effects are likely to taper off, gradually decreasing solar wind speed to about 500 km/second by midday Thursday.
Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly quiet with a chance that a CME may mildly to moderately degrade propagation after midday Thursday.
We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild to moderate degradation on Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild to moderate degradation after midday Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild to moderate degradation after midday Thursday
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance that a CME may mildly to moderately degrade propagation after midday Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to mostly normal with a chance that a CME may mildly to moderately degrade propagation after midday Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal though Thursday.
There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation may be skewed towards the east. There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL from about 2200-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are available at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast
is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
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Mid and high latitude propagation is likely to be mildly degraded until mostly normal propagation returns by midday Wednesday December 6th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 76 minutes later and sunset is 79 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
There is a chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through at least Wednesday.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 138 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 114 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through at least Wednesday. The solar visible disk has five medium and three tiny active regions containing 33 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 550 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Coronal Hole high speed stream and glancing CME effects may increase solar wind speed to 600 km/second or more through early Wednesday.
Coronal Hole high speed stream and glancing CME effects may produce isolated minor geomagnetic storm conditions through early Wednesday. Mostly normal propagation is likely to return by midday Wednesday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mildly degraded through Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mildly degraded through Wednesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded until mostly normal propagation returns by midday Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded until mostly normal propagation returns by midday Wednesday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is mildly to mildly degraded until mostly normal propagation returns by midday Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mildly degraded until mostly normal propagation returns by midday Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal though Wednesday.
There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF F2 propagation may be skewed towards the east. There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL from about 2200-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and less and near real time less than one hour forecasts are available at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast
is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
Leave a comment:
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HF propagation is likely to become moderately to mildly degraded by midday Monday until mostly normal propagation returns by midday Tuesday December 5th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 75 minutes later and sunset is 79 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
There is a chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through at least Tuesday.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 139 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Tuesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 111 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through at least Tuesday. The solar visible disk has one large, two medium and five tiny active regions containing 27 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 550 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Coronal Hole high speed stream and CME effects are likely to increase solar wind speed to 600 km/second or more by midday Monday gradually returning about 500 km/second or less by midday Tuesday.
Coronal Hole high speed stream and CME effects are likely to produce minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions by midday Monday until mostly normal propagation returns by midday Tuesday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be moderately degraded on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be severely degraded on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to become mildly to moderately degraded by midday Monday until mostly normal propagation returns by midday Tuesday.
30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to become mildly to moderately degraded by midday Monday until mostly normal propagation returns by midday Tuesday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to become mildly to moderately degraded by midday Monday until mostly normal propagation returns by midday Tuesday.
17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be below normal on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to become mildly to moderately degraded by midday Monday until mostly normal propagation returns by midday Tuesday.
12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be below normal on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday..
There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe. There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a slight chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL from about 2200-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated continuously at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast
is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
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Propagation is likely to be strongly degraded early Friday with steadily reduced degradation after midday Friday. Mostly normal propagation returns by midday Saturday and steadily improves through Sunday December 3rd by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 73 minutes later and sunset is 79 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
There is a chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares and a slight chance of a strong radio blackout caused by an isolated strong M-class or weak X-class solar flare through at least Sunday.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 163 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 160 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through at least Sunday. The solar visible disk has one large, five medium and four tiny active regions containing 38 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 620 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
The effects of multiple CME arrivals are likely to significantly degrade solar wind parameters from early Friday through midday Saturday.
Effects of multiple CME arrivals are likely to produce moderate to strong geomagnetic storm conditions from early Friday through early Saturday. Mostly normal propagation returns by midday Saturday and steadily improves through Sunday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be moderately degraded on Friday improving to mostly normal through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be severely degraded on Friday, moderately degraded on Saturday, improving to mostly normal on Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be severely degraded through at least midday Friday, moderately degraded through midday Saturday, gradually improving to mostly normal on Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be severely degraded through at least midday Friday, moderately degraded through midday Saturday, gradually improving to mostly normal on Sunday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be severely degraded through at least midday Friday, moderately degraded through midday Saturday, gradually improving to mostly normal on Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be below normal on Friday improving to mostly normal on Saturday and Sunday
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through midday Friday but degrading to mostly below normal from midday Friday through at least late Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be below normal on Friday improving to mostly normal on Saturday and Sunday.
There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe. There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a slight chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL from about 2200-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and less and near real time less than one hour forecasts are available at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast
is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
Leave a comment:
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Propagation will be initially normal but is likely to become strongly degraded from midday Thursday through at least late Friday December 1st by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 71 minutes later and sunset is 79 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
There is a chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares and a slight chance of a strong radio blackout caused by an isolated strong M-class or weak X-class solar flare through at least Friday.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 171 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Friday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 171 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through at least Friday. The solar visible disk has one large, three medium and eight tiny active regions containing 44 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 530 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed continues in a slow wind regime of 400 km/second or less but the effects of multiple CME arrivals are likely to significantly degrade solar wind conditions from midday Thursday through at least late Friday.
Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly unsettled to active through midday Thursday. Effects of multiple CME arrivals are likely to significantly degrade geomagnetic conditions from midday Thursday through at least late Friday. Mild to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions are likely after midday Thursday with possible strong isolated geomagnetic storm conditions before midday Friday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through midday Thursday but becoming mildly degraded by midday Thursday and moderately to strongly degraded by early Friday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be moderately degraded on Thursday and Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be moderately degraded on Thursday and strongly degraded on Friday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Thursday but degrading to mostly below normal from midday Thursday through at least late Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Thursday but degrading to mostly below normal from midday Thursday through at least late Friday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Thursday but degrading to mostly below normal from midday Thursday through at least late Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday degrading to mostly below normal during Friday
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through midday Thursday but degrading to mostly below normal from midday Thursday through at least late Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday degrading to mostly below normal during Friday.
There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid-morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe. There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a slight chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL during early evening hours. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and less and near real time less than one hour forecasts are available at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast
is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
Leave a comment:
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Some of the best HF propagation in 20 years continues but significantly degrades by early Thursday November 30th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
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My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 70 minutes later and sunset is 78 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
There is a chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares and a slight chance of a strong radio blackout caused by an isolated X-class flare through Thursday.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 186 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 166 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through at least Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has two medium and eight tiny active regions containing 30 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 335 micro-hemispheres (about two times the surface area of the Earth).
www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap
Solar wind speed continues in a slow wind regime of 450 km/second or less gradually declining to near background levels under 400 km/second by midday Wednesday. CME effects are likely to significantly degrade solar wind conditions by early Thursday.
Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be quiet through late Wednesday. CME effects are likely to trigger mild to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions from early through middayThursday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal but becoming mildly degraded by early Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal but degrading to mostly below normal by Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal but degrading to below normal on Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal but degrading to mostly below normal by early Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal but degrading to mostly below normal by early Thursday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal but degrading to mostly below normal by early Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal but degrading to mostly below normal on Thursday
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal but degrading to mostly below normal by early Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal but degrading to mostly below normal on Thursday.
There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe. There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a slight chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL during early evening hours. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and less and near real time less than one hour forecasts are available at:
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/managed/services/archive/product/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast
is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/products-data/forecasts/kp-index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
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