W3LPL Propagation forecast

[4L5A]

Some of the best HF propagation in 20 years continues through Wednesday November 29th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 69 minutes later and sunset is 78 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Wednesday.

The 2000Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 187 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 138 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through at least Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, six medium and four tiny active regions containing 49 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 885 micro-hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed returned to a slow wind regime of 450 km/second or less early Tuesday gradually declining to near background levels well under 400 km/second by midday Wednesday.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be quiet until late Wednesday when there is a chance of unsettled to active conditions due to the CME effects.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal Tuesday and degrading to mostly normal by late Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal degrading to mostly normal by late Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal degrading to mostly normal by late Wednesday

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal degrading to mostly normal by late Wednesday.17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal degrading to mostly normal by late Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe.There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a slight chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL during early evening hours. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

SWPC’s real time 24 hour geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and less than one hour forecasts are available at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast
is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded improving to normal by midday Tuesday November 28th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 68 minutes later and sunset is 78 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are likely through Tuesday.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 177 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Tuesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 180 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through at least Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has one very large, one large, six medium and three tiny active regions containing 59 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1220 micro-hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly enhanced at 500 km/second or more gradually declining to near background levels less than 400 km/second by midday Tuesday.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly quiet improving to quiet by midday Tuesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal by midday Tuesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal by midday Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal by midday Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal by midday Tuesday.
17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal by midday Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a slight chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net
_._,_._,_

[4L5A]

Low and mid latitude propagation is likely to be normal and high latitude propagation is likely to be mostly normal through late Saturday. Possible geomagnetic activity may degrade propagation at all latitudes during Sunday November 26th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 66 minutes later and sunset is 77 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are likely with a slight chance of strong radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Sunday.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 185 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 189 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through at least Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has one very large, one large, eight medium and one tiny active region containing 66 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1560 micro-hemispheres (about eight times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be at background levels less than 400 km/second through late Saturday then becoming enhanced at up to 500 km/second or more or more due to possible extended periods of combined CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects during Sunday.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly quiet through late Saturday then degrading to unsettled to active with possible minor geomagnetic storms and a chance of strong geomagnetic storms due to possible extended periods of combined CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects during Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through late Saturday, degrading to mostly normal during Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through late Saturday possibly degrading to below propagation during Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through Saturday possibly degrading to below normal during Sunday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through late Saturday possibly degrading to below normal during Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through late Saturday possibly degrading to below normal during Sunday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through late Saturday possibly degrading to below normal during Sunday.. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday possibly degrading to below normal during Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through late Saturday possibly degrading to below normal during Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday possibly degrading to below normal during Sunday.
There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a slight chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal. Propagation crossing high latitudes us likely to be mostly below normal through Thursday November 23rd by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 63 minutes later and sunset is 75 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Thursday.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 169 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 154 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has two large, three medium and four tiny active region containing 48 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 810 micro-hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be moderately enhanced at 500 km/second or more through Thursday due to extended periods of southward orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) combined with CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be unsettled to active with possible minor geomagnetic storms through Thursday due to possible extended periods of southward orientation of the IMF combined with CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly below normal through Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly below normal through Thursday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through Thursday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly below normal through Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly below normal through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly below normal through Thursday.

There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a slight chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal. Propagation crossing high latitudes us likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday November 22nd by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 62 minutes later and sunset is 75 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Wednesday.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 155 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 140 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has two large, three medium and four tiny active region containing 37 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1000 micro-hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly enhanced at about 400 km/second through Wednesday due to weak CME effects and minor coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly unsettled to active through Wednesday due to weak CME effects and minor coronal hole high speed stream effects.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a slight chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/data/ClassicalRWCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing low, mid and high latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded through Tuesday November 21st by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 61 minutes later and sunset is 74 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Tuesday.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 145 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 50 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, one medium and one tiny active region containing 21 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 400 micro-hemispheres (about twice the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly enhanced at about 400 km/second through Tuesday due to mild CME effects on Monday and mild coronal hole high speed stream effects on Tuesday.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly unsettled to active on Monday due to mild CME effects and quiet to unsettled on Tuesday due to mild coronal hole high speed stream effects.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and normal on Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and normal on Tuesday.

There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a slight chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/data/ClassicalRWCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal until mild degradation commences by midday to late Sunday November 19th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 59 minutes later and sunset is 73 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a slight chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Sunday.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 118 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 34 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has one medium and one tiny active region containing only eight sunspots with a total sunspot area of only 130 micro-hemispheres (about 65% of surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly enhanced at about 400 km/second or less through late Sunday due to weak coronal hole high speed stream effects. A CME is likely to produce moderately elevated solar wind in excess of 450 km/second by late Sunday.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly quiet. A CME is likely to produce minor geomagnetic storm conditions by late Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal until late Sunday when a CME is likely to produce mildly degraded propagation. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal until late Sunday when a CME is likely to produce mildly degraded propagation. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal until late Sunday when a CME is likely to produce mildly degraded propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal until late Sunday when a CME is likely to produce mildly degraded propagation. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal until late Sunday when a CME is likely to produce mildly degraded propagation. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.

There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a slight chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through Friday November 17tth by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 56 minutes later and sunset is 71 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a slight chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Friday.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 119 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 36 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday. The sun’s visible disk has one medium and two tiny active regions containing only eleven sunspots with a total sunspot area of only 210 micro-hemispheres (about the same as the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly enhanced at about 400 km/second through Friday due to weak coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled improving to quiet before midday Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a slight chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local night time hours through Thursday November 16th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 55 minutes later and sunset is 71 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Thursday.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 125 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 59 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, two medium and three tiny active region containing 26 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 640 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly enhanced at about 450 km/second or less through Thursday due to weak CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled improving to mostly quiet after midday Thursday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mildly degraded late Wednesday and mostly normal late Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation during local night time hours through Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation during local night time hours through Thursday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation during local night time hours through Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation during local night time hours through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.

There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a slight chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal and propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday November 15th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 54 minutes later and sunset is 70 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares on Tuesday improving to only a slight chance on Wednesday.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 133 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 73 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, four medium and one tiny active region containing 25 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 560 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly enhanced at about 450 km/second or less with a possible moderate increase by late Wednesday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be quiet to unsettled with a possible moderate degradation by late Wednesday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal with possible mild degradation by late Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradation by late Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradation by late Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradation by late Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradation by late Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a slight chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation