W3LPL Propagation forecast

[4L5A]

High latitude propagation is likely to be mostly normal and low and mid latitude propagation is likely to be normal through Tuesday November 14th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 53 minutes later and sunset is 69 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Tuesday.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 135 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 89 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has one large and four medium size active regions containing 28 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 710 micro-hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be slightly elevated at about 450 km/second or less, declining to 400 km/second or less by Tuesday due to waning coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be quiet to unsettled through Tuesday due to waning CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through midday Monday, then degrading to mostly below normal through early Tuesday and gradually improving to mostly normal by midday Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

High latitude propagation is likely to be mostly normal degrading to below normal from late Saturday through midday Sunday. Low and mid latitude propagation is likely to be normal degrading to mostly below normal from late Saturday through midday Sunday November 12th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 50 minutes later and sunset is 69 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a slight chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Sunday.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 138 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2200Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 90 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, two medium and three tiny active regions containing 33 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 480 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels of about 400 km/second or less through midday Saturday. CME effects are likely to elevate solar wind speed to about 500 km/second or more from midday Saturday through midday Sunday then gradually declining to 500 km/second and less by late Sunday.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly quiet through midday Saturday. CME effects are likely to produce minor geomagnetic storm conditions by midday Saturday degrading to moderate storm conditions with a chance of a strong storm from late Saturday through early Sunday. Storms are likely to gradually wane by midday Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through midday Saturday, degrading to mostly below normal from midday Saturday through midday Sunday then gradually improving to mostly normal by midday Sunday,

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday, below normal on Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through Saturday and mostly below normal on Sunday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Saturday, then degrading to mostly below normal through early Sunday and gradually improving to mostly normal after midday Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Saturday, then degrading to mostly below normal through early Sunday and gradually improving to mostly normal by midday Sunday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Saturday, then degrading to mostly below normal through early Sunday and gradually improving to mostly normal by midday Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through midday Saturday, then degrading to mostly below normal through early Sunday and gradually improving to mostly normal by midday Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

High latitude propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Low and mid latitude propagation is likely to be normal through Friday November 10th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 48 minutes later and sunset is 67 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a slight chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Friday.

The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 143 and is likely to remain unchanged through Friday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 114 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, three medium and two tiny active regions containing 32 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 490 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be about 500 km/second or less due to persistent coronal hole high speed streams effects, gradually declining to 400 km/second or less by midday Friday and further declining to near background levels by late Friday.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be unsettled to active with a chance of isolated minor storm conditions improving to quiet to unsettled by midday Thursday as persistent coronal hole high speed stream effects gradually taper to near background levels by midday Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal on Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

High latitude propagation is likely to be mildly degraded improving to mostly normal by midday Thursday. Low and mid latitude propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday November 9th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 46 minutes later and sunset is 67 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through at least Thursday.

The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 145 and is likely to remain unchanged through Thursday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 126 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, one medium and three tiny active regions containing 24 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 380 micro-hemispheres (about two times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be about 500 km/second or less due to persistent coronal hole high speed streams effects. gradually declining to 400 km/second or less by midday Thursday and further declining to near background levels by late Friday.

Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance of minor storm intervals improving to quiet to unsettled by midday Thursday as persistent coronal hole high speed stream effects gradually taper to near background levels by late Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal on Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly below normal improving to mostly normal on Thursday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded improving to mostly normal by midday Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded improving to mostly normal by midday Thursday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to mildly degraded improving to mostly normal by midday Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal on Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mildly degraded improving to mostly normal by midday Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal on Thursday.

There is a chance of brief intervals of geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief, isolated and geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, D2, 7Q, V5 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation coupled into oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK) and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Mostly below normal propagation is likely at high latitudes through late Tuesday. Propagation at low and mid latitudes is likely to be fair with periods of poor propagation through late Tuesday, improving to mostly normal during local daylight hours on Tuesday November 7th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 44 minutes later and sunset is 64 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through at least Tuesday.

The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 155 and is likely to remain unchanged through Tuesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 85 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has one two large, one medium and three tiny active regions containing 21sunspots with a total sunspot area of 780 micro-hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be about 400 km/second or less through midday Tuesday then increasing to 450 km/second or more by late Tuesday due to coronal hole high speed streams effects.

Minor geomagnetic storm conditions are likely through midday Monday improving to unsettled to active through midday Tuesday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely from midday until late Tuesday when coronal hole high speed effects are likely to again intensify.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly below normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly below normal through late Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be below normal on Monday improvinf to mostly normal on Tuesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through late Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through late Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through late Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly below normal through late Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be below normal on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday.

There is a chance of brief, isolated and geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated F2 propagation coupled into the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and southern Africa (e.g., ZD7, D2 and 7Q) from late morning through mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation coupled into oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

The best HF propagation in 20 years is likely to continue through at least midday Saturday with possible mild degradations at high latitudes during local nighttime hours from late Saturday through late Sunday November 5th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 42 minutes later and sunset is 61 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through at least Sunday.

The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 159 and is likely to remain unchanged through Sunday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 162 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has one very large, one large, one medium and four tiny active regions containing 43 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 820 micro-hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be about 400 km/second or less through midday Saturday then possibly increasing to above 400 km/second through late Sunday due to possible effects of glancing blows by CMEs.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through at midday Saturday possibly degrading to quiet to unsettled through late Sunday due to possible effects of glancing blows by CMEs.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through midday Saturday then mildly degraded from late Saturday through late Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through Saturday then mildly degraded on Sunday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Saturday then mildly degraded through late Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Saturday then mildly degraded through late Sunday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Saturday then mildly degraded through late Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday then mildly degraded on Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be normal through normal through midday Saturday then mildly degraded through late Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday then mildly degraded on Sunday.

There is a chance of brief, isolated and geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated F2 propagation coupled into the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and southern Africa (e.g., ZD7, D2 and 7Q) from late morning to mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation coupled into oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

The best HF propagation in 20 years is likely to continue through at least midday Saturday November 4th and during many more November days by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 40 minutes later and sunset is 59 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is an isolated chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through at least Saturday.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is 159 and is likely to remain unchanged through at least Saturday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 134 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday. The sun’s visible disk has one very large, one medium and four tiny active regions containing 45 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 680 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be about 400 km/second or less through at least midday Saturday.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through at least midday Saturday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Saturday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through at least midday Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least midday Saturday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least midday Saturday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least midday Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least midday Saturday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be normal through at least midday Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least midday Saturday.

There is a chance of brief, isolated and geographically focused trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, etc). There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated F2 propagation coupled into the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and southern Africa (e.g., ZD7, D2 and 7Q) from late morning to mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation coupled into oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

The best HF propagation in 20 years is likely to resume through at least Friday November 3rd by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 39 minutes later and sunset is 58 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is an isolated chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through at least Friday.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is 147 and is likely to remain unchanged through at least Friday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 97 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday. The sun’s visible disk has one very large, one medium and three tiny active regions containing 66 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 670 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to remain to be about 400 km/second or less through at least Friday.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through at least Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be normal through Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic coast of southern Africa (e.g., ZD7, D2 and 7Q) from late morning to mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals of low and mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Low and mid-latitude HF propagation is likely to be normal and high latitude propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday November 1st by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 38 minutes later and sunset is 56 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is an isolated chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Wednesday.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is 140 and is likely to remain unchanged through Wednesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 79 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has two moderate and one tiny active region containing 32 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 220 micro-hemispheres (slightly larger than the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated to about 500 km/second or less through Tuesday, waning to about 400 km/second or less by Wednesday due to weakening coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely through Wednesday due to weakening coronal hole high speed stream effects.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic coast of southern Africa (e.g., ZD7, D2 and 7Q) from late morning to mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals of low and mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Low and mid-latitude HF propagation is likely to be mostly normal but high latitude propagation is likely to be mildly disturbed during local night time hours through Tuesday October 31st by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 37 minutes later and sunset is 55 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a slight chance of daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Tuesday.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is 135 and is likely to remain unchanged through Tuesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 83 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk continues to resemble solar minimum conditions with four tiny active regions containing 21 tiny sunspots with a total sunspot area of only 70 micro-hemispheres (about one third of the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated to about 550km/second or less through Monday, waning to less than 500 km/second by Tuesday due to weakening coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely through Tuesday due to weakening coronal hole high speed stream effects.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mildly degraded through Tuesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded through midday Monday improving to mostly normal through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded through midday Monday improving to mostly normal through Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded through midday Monday improving to mostly normal through Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mildly degraded through midday Monday improving to mostly normal through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic coast of southern Africa (e.g., ZD7, D2 and 7Q) from late morning to mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals of low and mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation