W3LPL Propagation forecast

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions
is likely to be mostly normal during Friday,
mildly degraded during Saturday and
mostly normal during Sunday.

HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be
mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

The 2300Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 128.
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php

The late Thursday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN)
was 78.
We are in the summer solstice season when disturbed geomagnetic
conditions and geomagnetic storms are about half as likely, shorter
in duration and not as strong as during the equinox seasons.

30, 20, 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America
to south and southeast Asia is likely to be mostly normal during
Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

There is a chance of 6 meter long distance sporadic-E propagation from
North America to Europe during North American daytime hours.
There is a slight chance of long distance sporadic-E propagation to the
Middle East and Central Asia during North American morning
daytime hours. There is a slight chance of long distance sporadic-E
propagation to Japan and nearby countries during North American
late afternoon and early evening hours.

This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The visible solar disk has one growing medium active region and four decaying small active regions.
There are 22 small sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 340 micro-solar hemispheres
(approximately twice the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain below 400 km/second during Friday
then increasing above 400 km/second during Saturday and Sunday.

There is a chance of minor to moderate radio blackouts during Friday, Saturday and Sunday daytime hours.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely during Friday.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely during Saturday with a slight chance of a minor geomagnetic storm.
Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely during Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday..

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, mostly normal with intervals of mildly degraded propagation during Saturday and mostly normal during Sunday.
30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Friday,
mostly normal with intervals of mildly degraded propagation during Saturday
and mostly normal during Sunday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Friday,
mostly normal with intervals of mildly degraded propagation during Saturday
and mostly normal during Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be
mostly normal during Friday, mostly normal with intervals of mildly degraded propagation during Saturday and mostly normal during Sunday.

There is a slight chance of 12 and 10 meter long distance sporadic-E propagation crossing the northern hemisphere auroral oval and sub-auroral regions during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is nine minutes later and sunset is two minutes earlier than it was on June 20th.
Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region.
Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions
is likely to be mostly normal to mildly degraded during Thursday
and early Friday nighttime hours, then improving to mostly normal
before midday Friday and further improving to normal during Saturday.

HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal
during Thursday and Friday improving to normal during Saturday.

HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal
during Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
30, 20, 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America
to south and southeast Asia is likely to be mostly normal during
Thursday and Friday improving to normal during Saturday.

There is a slight chance of 6 meter long distance sporadic-E propagation
from North America to Europe during North American daytime hours.
There is a very slight chance of long distance sporadic-E propagation
to the Middle East and Central Asia during North American morning
daytime hours. There is a very slight chance of long distance sporadic-E
propagation to Japan and nearby countries during North American late
afternoon and early evening hours.

This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and
15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast)
is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The visible solar disk has one decaying medium active region and
five small active regions. There are 25 small sunspots on the visible disk
with a total sunspot area of 550 micro-solar hemispheres
(approximately three times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to decline to about 500 km/second by
midday Thursday then gradually declining to about 400 km/second from
midday through late Friday. Mostly background levels of about
400 km/second are likely during Saturday.

There is a chance of minor to moderate radio blackouts during
Thursday, Friday and Saturday daytime hours.

Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions with a chance of a
minor geomagnetic storm is likely during early Thursday.
Mostly unsettled to active conditions are then likely through
midday Friday. Mostly normal conditions are likely from midday
Friday through late Saturday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal from Thursday through
early Friday, then improving to normal from midday Friday through
late Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the
northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region
blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East
and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be mostly normal during
Thursday and Friday, improving to normal during Saturday. Short path
propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z
is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday and Friday improving
to normal during Saturday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions
is likely to be mostly normal to during Thursday and Friday, improving
to normal during Saturday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always
mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by
E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar region
is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday and Friday,
improving to normal during Saturday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions
is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday and Friday,
improving to normal during Saturday. Long path propagation from
North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal
during Thursday and Friday improving to normal during Saturday.

There is a slight chance of 12 and 10 meter long distance sporadic-E
propagation crossing the northern hemisphere auroral oval and
sub-auroral regions during Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable
role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is
sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of
about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with
the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME.
More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms
may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained
in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about
5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident
with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about
500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 29 minutes later and
sunset is 11 minutes earlier than it was on June 20th.
Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later
at the altitude of the refracting F2 region.
Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later
at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions
is likely to be mostly normal from Friday through early Sunday,
degrading to mildly to moderately degraded after expected CME arrival
during midday Sunday.

HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be
normal from Friday through early Sunday
and mostly normal after midday Sunday.

HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be
normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

The 2300Z Sunday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 145.

The late Thursday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN)
was 121.

30, 20, 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to
south and southeast Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Friday,
Saturday and Sunday.

There is a slight chance of 6 meter long distance sporadic-E propagation
from North America to Europe during North American daytime hours.

This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and
15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast)
is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The visible solar disk has one growing medium active region,
one stable medium active region and eight small active regions.
There are 37 small sunspots on the visible disk with a
total sunspot area of 740 micro-solar hemispheres
(approximately four times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.com/regions.htm

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain at about 500 km/second through
midday Friday then gradually declining to background levels of about
400 km/second from midday Friday through early Sunday.
CME arrival expected during midday Sunday may enhance the
solar wind velocity to about 500 km/second.

There is a chance of minor to moderate radio blackouts during Friday,
Saturday and Sunday daytime hours.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely during Friday.
Quiet conditions are likely from early Saturday through early Sunday.
Unsettled to active conditions are expected after midday Sunday due to
expected CME arrival.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the
South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and
Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern
hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing
of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East
and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be mostly normal during
Friday, improving to normal during Saturday then becoming mostly normal
during Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and
east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal during Friday and
Saturday and moderately degraded during Sunday after expected
CME arrival.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar region
is likely to be mostly normal from Friday through early Sunday,
degrading to mildly to moderately degraded after expected CME
arrival during midday Sunday. 30 meter long distance propagation
is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of
local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance
F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions
is likely to be mostly normal from Friday through early Sunday,
degrading to mildly to moderately degraded after expected CME arrival
during midday Sunday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions
is likely to be mostly normal from Friday through early Sunday, degrading
to mildly to moderately degraded after expected CME arrival during midday
Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and
east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

There is a slight chance of 12 and 10 meter long distance sporadic-E
propagation crossing the northern hemisphere auroral oval and
sub-auroral regions during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable
role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate
geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is
sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about
5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence
of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent,
longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered
suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward
orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more
for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a
geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 30 minutes later
and sunset is 12 minutes earlier than it was on June 20th.
Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later
at the altitude of the refracting F2 region.
Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later
at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions
is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday
and mildly degraded during Friday and Saturday.

HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal during Thursday
and mostly normal with mildly degraded intervals during Friday and Saturday.

HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be
mostly normal during Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

The 2300Z Tuesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 160.

The late Tuesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 157.

30, 20, 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to
south and southeast Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday
and mostly normal with mildly degraded intervals during Friday and Saturday.

There is a slight chance of 6 meter long distance sporadic-E propagation
from North America to southern Europe during North American morning
and early afternoon hours.

This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and
15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast)
is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The visible solar disk has one growing medium active region,
one stable medium active region and six small active regions.
There are 64 small sunspots on the visible disk with a
total sunspot area of 1010 micro-solar hemispheres
(approximately six times the surface area of the Earth).


Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly below 400 km/second
during Thursday, increasing to about 500 km/second or more
during Friday and Saturday.

There is a chance of minor to moderate radio blackouts and a
slight chance of strong radio blackouts during Thursday, Friday
and Saturday daytime hours.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely during Thursday
Mostly unsettled to active conditions are likely during Friday and Saturday.
There is a chance of minor to moderate geomagnetic storms during
early Friday and early Saturday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL
and the South Pacific is likely to be normal during Thursday
and mildly degraded during Friday and Saturday.
160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere
is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle
F2 propagation until after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East
and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be mildly degraded during
Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Short path propagation between
North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be
mostly normal during Thursday, and mostly normal to mildly degraded
during Friday and Saturday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be normal during Thursday, and mostly normal with mildly degraded
intervals during Friday and Saturday. 30 meter long distance propagation
is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon
by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal during Thursday, and mostly normal with mildly
degraded intervals during Friday and Saturday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions
is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday, with mildly degraded intervals
during Friday and Saturday.. Long path propagation from North America
to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal to during Thursday,
and mostly normal with mildly degraded intervals during Friday and Saturday.

12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation crossing mid and lo
latitudes is increasingly frequent for at least a few hours during most days.
Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to occur during several days
in September.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role
in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward
orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for
at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective
coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration,
minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and
unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz)
with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of
several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective
CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 39 minutes later
and sunset is 26 minutes earlier than it was on June 20th.
Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later
at the altitude of the refracting F2 region.
Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later
at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.