Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday improving to normal on Tuesday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly below normal during early Monday local night time hours improving to mostly normal by Tuesday September 26th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
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My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
Near-real time maps and data about ionospheric conditions are available at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is one minute later and sunset is two minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
Today’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is 202 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has three large, three medium and four tiny active regions containing 72 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 950 micro-hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap
Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are likely through Tuesday. There is a slight chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Tuesday.
Solar wind speed is likely to be moderately elevated to about 500 km/second or less through Monday due to CME effects then mildly elevated to about 450 km/second or less on Tuesday due to possible enhancement by a glancing CME blow.
Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely with possible mild to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions through Monday due to CME effects. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely with possible mild geomagnetic storm conditions on Tuesday due to possible effects of a glancing CME blow.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday and normal on Tuesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly below normal late Monday improving to mostly normal late Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.
We are in the autumnal equinox season when disturbed geomagnetic conditions are much more likely than during the solstice seasons.
There is a slight chance of brief isolated 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America during early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a very slight chance that more northerly US stations may very briefly couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and brief intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 170 through Tuesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot
Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png
Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu
Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net
__________________________________________________ __________________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
Near-real time maps and data about ionospheric conditions are available at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is one minute later and sunset is two minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
Today’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is 202 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has three large, three medium and four tiny active regions containing 72 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 950 micro-hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap
Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are likely through Tuesday. There is a slight chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Tuesday.
Solar wind speed is likely to be moderately elevated to about 500 km/second or less through Monday due to CME effects then mildly elevated to about 450 km/second or less on Tuesday due to possible enhancement by a glancing CME blow.
Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely with possible mild to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions through Monday due to CME effects. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely with possible mild geomagnetic storm conditions on Tuesday due to possible effects of a glancing CME blow.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday and normal on Tuesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly below normal late Monday improving to mostly normal late Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.
We are in the autumnal equinox season when disturbed geomagnetic conditions are much more likely than during the solstice seasons.
There is a slight chance of brief isolated 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America during early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a very slight chance that more northerly US stations may very briefly couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and brief intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Persistent southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for several hours or more coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 170 through Tuesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot
Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png
Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu
Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net
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