Tamitha Skov - Propagation forecast

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Bright Regions Emerge Too Fast To Count Space Weather News 09.22.2021

This week our Sun raises the bar with no less than six sunspots emerging in Earth view. These regions have been growing so fast that not all of them have been numbered yet (at the time of the forecast shoot). This means solar flux has shot up tremendously over the past few days and will continue climbing easily over this next week. We are rapidly moving through the 80s right now and could see triple digits again by next week. Amateur radio operators should notice much improved radio propagation on Earth's dayside in the coming days. In addition, we are also seeing an increase in big flare risk, which will also likely increase in the coming days. The main player is region 2871, but other regions may join the fray over the next few days. On top of this, we also have a coronal hole rotating into the Earth-strike zone, which will bring us some fast solar wind and the chance for aurora as we near the weekend. Aurora photographers at high and mid-latitudes should stay alert and keep their camera batteries charged this week as we also have an increased chance of Earth-directed solar storms with so many active regions now in play. Learn the details of the emerging new regions, find out when and where aurora might be visible, and see what else our Sun has in store this week!

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A Filament Poised to Launch with Noctilucent Clouds & Aurora | Solar Storm Forecast 06.22.2021
This week our Sun keeps us watching as a filament continues a slow rise off the Earth-facing Sun. It is now traversing through the Earth-strike zone and is poised to launch. If it erupts over the next few days, it could very well be an Earth-directed solar storm so we are keeping our eyes on it. In addition, we have a polar coronal hole in the north that will be sending us some fast solar wind around June 24, and along with a near Earth-directed solar storm that will give us a grazing passage on June 23, we could see some fun aurora shows at high latitudes, with a small chance of fleeting views down to mid-latitudes. We are also hanging on to solar flux levels in the high 70s to low 80s this week, with higher solar flux on the way due to new regions rotating into Earth-view over the next few days. Amateur radio operators should expect radio propagation on Earth's dayside to be in the marginal range, but improving. Finally, GPS users should expect great reception this week all around the globe. Learn details of the coming fast solar wind, catch up on some gorgeous aurora and noctilucent cloud views over this past week and see what else our Sun has in store!

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Our Sun gets busy this week! We have multiple solar storms in the inner heliosphere, including one that is headed towards Mars and one that is headed towards Earth! The storm headed towards Mars should arrive sometime early on May 11th and it is driving a minor radiation storm towards that planet. This means both Ingenuity Helicopter and Perseverance Rover are being bathed in a slightly elevated radiation environment that will die down after the storm hits on May 11. Let's hope this elevated dose does not impact Ingenuity's flight plans or mission success! As for the solar storm headed towards Earth, we have two predictions, one is that the storm will arrive by May 12 and be a glancing blow to the East, the other prediction, made after SOHO/LASCO coronagraph data became available, indicates the bulk of the solar storm will actually travel west of Earth, with only a weak flank hitting Earth early on May 13. Likely the truth is somewhere in between! This means aurora photographers should prepare for possible aurora on both the 12th and the 13th, as it is a bit difficult to know from the model runs when the storm will hit! On top of all of these solar storm launches, we have a very active flare player, region 2822 that has been firing off moderate to large flares since before it rotated into Earth view. Likely this region will continue to be flare active for a few more days, possibly even a week before it calms down. This means radio propagation will be noisy on Earth's dayside, and GPS reception could be affected, especially near dawn and dusk. Learn the details of the solar storms headed towards Mars and Earth, say hello to active region 2822 as it fires off more flares, and come see what else our Sun has in store this week.

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A Coronal Hole, A Bright Region and A Red Planet. Tamitha Skov.
Space Weather makes us watch with bated breath this week as a big bright region rotates into earth-view from the Sun's farside. This region might be large enough to be a sunspot, but we will need to wait a few more days in order to tell. either way, the region is already beginning to boost solar flux into the low 70s so amateur radio operators and emergency responders should notice propagation improve on earth's dayside over the course of the week. We also have a coronal hole rotating into the Earth-strike zone that will send us some fast solar wind over the next few days. This should bring aurora views to high latitudes, but likely mid-latitude observers will only get a fleeting show. Learn the details of the coming fast wind and bright region, and catch up on the local weather at the Red Planet near the locations of our Martian colonists, Curiosity and Insight.

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Flares Pick Up & A Solar Storm Heads Towards Earth Tamitha Skov 18 August 2020.

This week our Sun holds our attention with multiple bright regions flaring and launching solar storms. One of these is partly Earth-directed and should impact Earth late on August 19 or by midday August 20. This storm is the first "fast" solar storm of this new cycle (compared to the slower, weaker storms during solar minimum), and so it could give us our best chance of aurora views yet down to mid-latitudes. On top of that we are managing to stay in the low 70s for solar flux, despite having a spotless Sun, so amateur radio operators should rejoice! Of course radio propagation and GPS reception will be affected once the solar storm hits, but overall the boost in activity lately is a sure sign of Solar Cycle 25 getting underway. Learn the details of the coming storm, how it will affect you, and see what else our Sun has in store this week!

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Solar Forecast 10 August 2020
Three Bright Regions and A Storm Generator

This week our Sun brings on the brightness with three bright regions in Earth view. One of these, region 2770 is the largest new cycle sunspot we have seen in the northern hemisphere yet! It has also fired a C-class flare, along with a bunch f mini-flares. All of this activity is boosting the solar flux up into the mid-70s. With the additional regions on the Sun's farside rotating into view soon, we might see the solar flux move higher than its been in several years! On top of that, one of the farside regions is also a solar storm generator so we might get a chance for another solar storm as well over the next few weeks. Learn the details of these new regions, catch up on the remaining aurora photos I promised to show with Comet Neowise shooting through aurora-filled skies during our last solar storm, and see what else our Sun has in store!

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A Solar Storm Nearly Clips Parker Solar Probe 12 June 2020


This week our Sun gives us more eye-candy as we have two new-cycle, bright regions in Earth view. One is region 2765 and it is the largest new-cycle sunspot we have seen to date. These regions are boosting the solar flux into the low 70s, which means radio propagation on Earth's dayside is staying in the marginal range. Although there arent any Earth-directed solar storms, we did have a far-side launch of a solar storm this week. the intriguing thing is that it nearly clipped the Parker Solar Probe spacecraft, which is just finishing its 5th perihelion pass (closest approach to our Sun was on June 7th). This solar storm is also making news because it is the first strong "Halo CME" to be seen as we rise out of solar minimum. That it was so clearly seen in Earth-based coronagraphs means that these solar storms are once again growing stronger. Learn the details of this near miss of Parker Solar Probe, catch up on aurora photos from recent solar storming, and see what else our Sun has in store this week!

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TamithaSkov propagation forecast 19 March 2020

This week space weather stays relatively calm, however, we do have some nice eye-candy, both at Earth and from our Sun. This eye-candy, which includes some gorgeous views of aurora on Earth from recent solar storms & flare activity from the new bright regions on our Sun, should soothe your mind from the craziness in the world right now due to COVID-19. As for our star, two new bright regions from solar cycle 25 have emerged. One has even fired off the first long-duration flare attributed to the new solar cycle. Although this long-duration flare did not bring us a radio blackout or an Earth-directed solar storm, it nevertheless is noteworthy in that it is heralding even more firsts from the upcoming solar cycle. in addition, we also have pockets of fast solar wind that are keeping us at unsettled conditions and bringing aurora to high latitudes over the next several days. Solar flux is remaining in the low 70s, which means radio propagation will stay in the marginal range for radio propagation over the next week. GPS reception also remains good overall through this next week. Learn the details of the recent solar flare and what it means for the coming solar cycle, see some recent aurora that will ease your mind and soul, and see what else our Sun has in store this week.

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Space Weather News. Orbit Outlook and Meteors
21 February 2019.
Author - Tamitha Skov.
This experimental Space Weather forecast was created by and for members of Patreon. It includes a broader look at our Sun's influence on our space environment, and includes new content tailor made for the show "Space News" on TMRO. Let me know what you think of this new content!

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A Bright and Bumpy Ride: Solar Storm Shortie 8 August 2018

The Sun sends us multiple pockets of fast solar wind that will keep us at unsettled conditions pretty much this entire week. This is good news for GPS users at low latitudes that will appreciate the improved reception. Aurora photographers at high latitudes might also get some sporadic aurora views. The Sun also turns up the brightness for amateur radio operators and emergency responders with the second of two bright regions rotating into Earth-view this week. This means radio propagation has bumped back to marginal levels on Earth's day side and will likely stay this way over the next week. See details on these events and what else the Sun has in store. (This end-of-week forecast shortie is made possible by the members of my Patreon project-- Thank You!)