Low and mid latitude propagation is likely to be normal through Tuesday. High latitude propagation is likely to be normal with a chance of isolated below normal intervals during local night time hours late Tuesday October 10th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
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My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 16 minutes later and sunset is 26 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 148 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, two medium and six tiny active regions containing 59 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 570 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap
There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Tuesday.
Solar wind speed is likely to be at background levels of about 325 km/second through midday Tuesday gradually increasing to less than 400 km/second by late Tuesday.
Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through at midday Tuesday mildly degrading to quiet to unsettled by late Tuesday. There is a slight chance of isolated active geomagnetic conditions late Tuesday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to normal through Tuesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of isolated below normal intervals during local night time hours late Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of isolated below normal intervals during local night time hours late Tuesday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of isolated below normal intervals during local night time hours late Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals during local night time hours through early Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.
We are in the autumnal equinox season when disturbed geomagnetic conditions are much more likely, more severe and longer lasting than during the solstice seasons.
There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 158 through Tuesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot
Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png
Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu
Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net
__________________________________________________ __________________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 16 minutes later and sunset is 26 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 148 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, two medium and six tiny active regions containing 59 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 570 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap
There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Tuesday.
Solar wind speed is likely to be at background levels of about 325 km/second through midday Tuesday gradually increasing to less than 400 km/second by late Tuesday.
Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through at midday Tuesday mildly degrading to quiet to unsettled by late Tuesday. There is a slight chance of isolated active geomagnetic conditions late Tuesday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to normal through Tuesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of isolated below normal intervals during local night time hours late Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of isolated below normal intervals during local night time hours late Tuesday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of isolated below normal intervals during local night time hours late Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals during local night time hours through early Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.
We are in the autumnal equinox season when disturbed geomagnetic conditions are much more likely, more severe and longer lasting than during the solstice seasons.
There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 158 through Tuesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot
Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png
Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu
Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net
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