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    #31
    High latitude propagation is likely to be mildly degraded improving to mostly normal by midday Thursday. Low and mid latitude propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday November 9th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
    __________________________________________________ __________________

    My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

    NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

    SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

    SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

    N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

    KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

    Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 46 minutes later and sunset is 67 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

    There is a chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through at least Thursday.

    The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 145 and is likely to remain unchanged through Thursday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
    https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

    The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 126 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, one medium and three tiny active regions containing 24 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 380 micro-hemispheres (about two times the surface area of the Earth).
    https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

    Solar wind speed is likely to be about 500 km/second or less due to persistent coronal hole high speed streams effects. gradually declining to 400 km/second or less by midday Thursday and further declining to near background levels by late Friday.

    Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance of minor storm intervals improving to quiet to unsettled by midday Thursday as persistent coronal hole high speed stream effects gradually taper to near background levels by late Friday.

    160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

    40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal on Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly below normal improving to mostly normal on Thursday.

    30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded improving to mostly normal by midday Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

    20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded improving to mostly normal by midday Thursday.

    17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to mildly degraded improving to mostly normal by midday Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal on Thursday.

    12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mildly degraded improving to mostly normal by midday Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal on Thursday.

    There is a chance of brief intervals of geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief, isolated and geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, D2, 7Q, V5 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation coupled into oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK) and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

    Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

    Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

    Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
    https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

    Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
    https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

    Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

    Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
    https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

    Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
    73 Al 4L5A

    Comment

    •  

      #32
      High latitude propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Low and mid latitude propagation is likely to be normal through Friday November 10th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
      __________________________________________________ __________________

      My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

      NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

      SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

      SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

      N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

      KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

      Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 48 minutes later and sunset is 67 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

      There is a slight chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Friday.

      The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 143 and is likely to remain unchanged through Friday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
      https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

      The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 114 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, three medium and two tiny active regions containing 32 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 490 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
      https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

      Solar wind speed is likely to be about 500 km/second or less due to persistent coronal hole high speed streams effects, gradually declining to 400 km/second or less by midday Friday and further declining to near background levels by late Friday.

      Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be unsettled to active with a chance of isolated minor storm conditions improving to quiet to unsettled by midday Thursday as persistent coronal hole high speed stream effects gradually taper to near background levels by midday Friday.

      160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

      40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal on Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

      30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

      20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

      17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

      12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

      There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

      Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

      Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
      https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

      Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
      https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

      Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
      https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

      Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
      https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

      Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
      https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

      Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net
      73 Al 4L5A

      Comment

      •  

        #33
        High latitude propagation is likely to be mostly normal degrading to below normal from late Saturday through midday Sunday. Low and mid latitude propagation is likely to be normal degrading to mostly below normal from late Saturday through midday Sunday November 12th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
        __________________________________________________ __________________

        My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

        NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

        SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

        SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

        N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

        KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

        Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 50 minutes later and sunset is 69 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

        There is a slight chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Sunday.

        The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 138 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2200Z at:
        https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

        The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 90 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, two medium and three tiny active regions containing 33 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 480 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
        https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

        Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels of about 400 km/second or less through midday Saturday. CME effects are likely to elevate solar wind speed to about 500 km/second or more from midday Saturday through midday Sunday then gradually declining to 500 km/second and less by late Sunday.

        Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly quiet through midday Saturday. CME effects are likely to produce minor geomagnetic storm conditions by midday Saturday degrading to moderate storm conditions with a chance of a strong storm from late Saturday through early Sunday. Storms are likely to gradually wane by midday Sunday.

        160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through midday Saturday, degrading to mostly below normal from midday Saturday through midday Sunday then gradually improving to mostly normal by midday Sunday,

        40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday, below normal on Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through Saturday and mostly below normal on Sunday.

        30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Saturday, then degrading to mostly below normal through early Sunday and gradually improving to mostly normal after midday Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

        20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Saturday, then degrading to mostly below normal through early Sunday and gradually improving to mostly normal by midday Sunday.

        17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Saturday, then degrading to mostly below normal through early Sunday and gradually improving to mostly normal by midday Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

        12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through midday Saturday, then degrading to mostly below normal through early Sunday and gradually improving to mostly normal by midday Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

        There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

        Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

        Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
        https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

        Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
        https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

        Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
        https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

        Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
        https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

        Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
        https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

        Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
        73 Al 4L5A

        Comment

        •  

          #34
          High latitude propagation is likely to be mostly normal and low and mid latitude propagation is likely to be normal through Tuesday November 14th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
          __________________________________________________ __________________

          My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

          NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

          SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

          SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

          N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

          KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

          Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 53 minutes later and sunset is 69 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

          There is a chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Tuesday.

          The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 135 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
          https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

          The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 89 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has one large and four medium size active regions containing 28 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 710 micro-hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
          https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

          Solar wind speed is likely to be slightly elevated at about 450 km/second or less, declining to 400 km/second or less by Tuesday due to waning coronal hole high speed stream effects.

          Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be quiet to unsettled through Tuesday due to waning CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects.

          160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

          40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

          30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

          20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

          17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

          12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through midday Monday, then degrading to mostly below normal through early Tuesday and gradually improving to mostly normal by midday Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

          There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

          Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

          Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
          https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

          Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
          https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

          Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
          https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

          Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
          https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

          Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
          https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

          Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
          73 Al 4L5A

          Comment

          •  

            #35
            Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal and propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday November 15th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
            __________________________________________________ __________________

            My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

            NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

            SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

            SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

            N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

            KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

            Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 54 minutes later and sunset is 70 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

            There is a chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares on Tuesday improving to only a slight chance on Wednesday.

            The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 133 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
            https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

            The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 73 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, four medium and one tiny active region containing 25 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 560 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
            https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

            Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly enhanced at about 450 km/second or less with a possible moderate increase by late Wednesday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

            Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be quiet to unsettled with a possible moderate degradation by late Wednesday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

            160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

            40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal with possible mild degradation by late Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

            30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradation by late Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

            20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradation by late Wednesday.

            17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradation by late Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

            12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradation by late Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

            There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a slight chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

            Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

            Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
            https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

            Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
            https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

            Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
            https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

            Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
            https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

            Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
            https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

            Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
            73 Al 4L5A

            Comment

            •  

              #36
              Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local night time hours through Thursday November 16th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
              __________________________________________________ __________________

              My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

              NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

              SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

              SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

              N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

              KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

              Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 55 minutes later and sunset is 71 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

              There is a chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Thursday.

              The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 125 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
              https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

              The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 59 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, two medium and three tiny active region containing 26 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 640 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
              https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

              Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly enhanced at about 450 km/second or less through Thursday due to weak CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects.

              Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled improving to mostly quiet after midday Thursday.

              160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.

              40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mildly degraded late Wednesday and mostly normal late Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

              30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation during local night time hours through Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

              20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation during local night time hours through Thursday.

              17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation during local night time hours through Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.

              12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation during local night time hours through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.

              There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a slight chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

              Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

              Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
              https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

              Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
              https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

              Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
              https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

              Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
              https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

              Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
              https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

              Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
              73 Al 4L5A

              Comment

              •  

                #37
                Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through Friday November 17tth by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
                __________________________________________________ _____________

                My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

                NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

                SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

                N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

                KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

                Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 56 minutes later and sunset is 71 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

                There is a slight chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Friday.

                The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 119 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
                https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

                The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 36 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday. The sun’s visible disk has one medium and two tiny active regions containing only eleven sunspots with a total sunspot area of only 210 micro-hemispheres (about the same as the surface area of the Earth).
                https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

                Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly enhanced at about 400 km/second through Friday due to weak coronal hole high speed stream effects.

                Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled improving to quiet before midday Friday.

                160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.

                40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

                30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

                20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

                17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

                12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

                There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a slight chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

                Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

                Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
                https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

                Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
                https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

                Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
                https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

                Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
                https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

                Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
                https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

                Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
                73 Al 4L5A

                Comment

                •  

                  #38
                  Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal until mild degradation commences by midday to late Sunday November 19th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
                  __________________________________________________ _____________

                  My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

                  NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

                  SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                  SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

                  N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

                  KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

                  Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 59 minutes later and sunset is 73 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

                  There is a slight chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Sunday.

                  The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 118 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
                  https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

                  The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 34 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has one medium and one tiny active region containing only eight sunspots with a total sunspot area of only 130 micro-hemispheres (about 65% of surface area of the Earth).
                  https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

                  Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly enhanced at about 400 km/second or less through late Sunday due to weak coronal hole high speed stream effects. A CME is likely to produce moderately elevated solar wind in excess of 450 km/second by late Sunday.

                  Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly quiet. A CME is likely to produce minor geomagnetic storm conditions by late Sunday.

                  160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

                  40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal until late Sunday when a CME is likely to produce mildly degraded propagation. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

                  30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal until late Sunday when a CME is likely to produce mildly degraded propagation. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

                  20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal until late Sunday when a CME is likely to produce mildly degraded propagation.

                  17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal until late Sunday when a CME is likely to produce mildly degraded propagation. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.

                  12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal until late Sunday when a CME is likely to produce mildly degraded propagation. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.

                  There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a slight chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

                  Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

                  Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
                  https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

                  Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
                  https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

                  Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
                  https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

                  Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
                  https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

                  Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
                  https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

                  Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:
                  http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net
                  73 Al 4L5A

                  Comment

                  •  

                    #39

                    Propagation crossing low, mid and high latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded through Tuesday November 21st by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
                    __________________________________________________ _____________

                    My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.


                    NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

                    SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                    SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png

                    N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html


                    KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

                    Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 61 minutes later and sunset is 74 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.


                    There is a chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Tuesday.

                    The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 145 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
                    https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php

                    The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 50 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, one medium and one tiny active region containing 21 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 400 micro-hemispheres (about twice the surface area of the Earth).
                    https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

                    Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly enhanced at about 400 km/second through Tuesday due to mild CME effects on Monday and mild coronal hole high speed stream effects on Tuesday.


                    Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly unsettled to active on Monday due to mild CME effects and quiet to unsettled on Tuesday due to mild coronal hole high speed stream effects.

                    160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

                    40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

                    30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

                    20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.


                    17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and normal on Tuesday.

                    12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and normal on Tuesday.

                    There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a slight chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

                    Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.


                    Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
                    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

                    Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:

                    https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png

                    Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:

                    https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/data/ClassicalRWCproducts/meu

                    Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:

                    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

                    Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:

                    https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

                    Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at:

                    http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net
                    73 Al 4L5A

                    Comment

                    •  

                      #40
                      Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal. Propagation crossing high latitudes us likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday November 22nd by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
                      __________________________________________________ _____________

                      My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.


                      NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

                      SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                      SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png

                      N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html


                      KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

                      Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 62 minutes later and sunset is 75 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.


                      There is a chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Wednesday.

                      The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 155 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
                      https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php

                      The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 140 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has two large, three medium and four tiny active region containing 37 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1000 micro-hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
                      https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap

                      Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly enhanced at about 400 km/second through Wednesday due to weak CME effects and minor coronal hole high speed stream effects.


                      Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly unsettled to active through Wednesday due to weak CME effects and minor coronal hole high speed stream effects.

                      160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

                      40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

                      30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

                      20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.


                      17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

                      12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

                      There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a slight chance of brief geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a slight chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

                      Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.


                      Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
                      https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

                      Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:

                      https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/fileadmin/ruggero/Kp_forecast/forecast_figures/KP_FORECAST_CURRENT.png

                      Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:

                      https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/data/ClassicalRWCproducts/meu

                      Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:

                      https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

                      Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:

                      https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

                      Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
                      73 Al 4L5A

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