High latitude propagation is likely to be mildly degraded improving to mostly normal by midday Thursday. Low and mid latitude propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday November 9th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
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My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 46 minutes later and sunset is 67 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
There is a chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through at least Thursday.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 145 and is likely to remain unchanged through Thursday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php
The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 126 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, one medium and three tiny active regions containing 24 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 380 micro-hemispheres (about two times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to be about 500 km/second or less due to persistent coronal hole high speed streams effects. gradually declining to 400 km/second or less by midday Thursday and further declining to near background levels by late Friday.
Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance of minor storm intervals improving to quiet to unsettled by midday Thursday as persistent coronal hole high speed stream effects gradually taper to near background levels by late Friday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal on Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly below normal improving to mostly normal on Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded improving to mostly normal by midday Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded improving to mostly normal by midday Thursday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to mildly degraded improving to mostly normal by midday Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal on Thursday.
12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mildly degraded improving to mostly normal by midday Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal on Thursday.
There is a chance of brief intervals of geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief, isolated and geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, D2, 7Q, V5 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation coupled into oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK) and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot
Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png
Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu
Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
__________________________________________________ __________________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 46 minutes later and sunset is 67 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
There is a chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through at least Thursday.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 145 and is likely to remain unchanged through Thursday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php
The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 126 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, one medium and three tiny active regions containing 24 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 380 micro-hemispheres (about two times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to be about 500 km/second or less due to persistent coronal hole high speed streams effects. gradually declining to 400 km/second or less by midday Thursday and further declining to near background levels by late Friday.
Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance of minor storm intervals improving to quiet to unsettled by midday Thursday as persistent coronal hole high speed stream effects gradually taper to near background levels by late Friday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal on Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly below normal improving to mostly normal on Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded improving to mostly normal by midday Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded improving to mostly normal by midday Thursday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to mildly degraded improving to mostly normal by midday Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal on Thursday.
12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mildly degraded improving to mostly normal by midday Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal on Thursday.
There is a chance of brief intervals of geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during mid to late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a chance of widespread 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from mid afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief, isolated and geographically focused F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, D2, 7Q, V5 and ZS) from mid morning through early afternoon. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation coupled into oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK) and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot
Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png
Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu
Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
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