W3LPL Propagation forecast

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or
both ends of propagation paths during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal
during Friday, and normal on Saturday and Sunday.

HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal
during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

The 2300Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 147.

The early Friday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 74.

There is a chance of 6 meter TEP propagation from the southern tier of
U.S. states to South America. There is a slight chance of oblique TEP
propagation to the South Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa through mid-May.
There is a chance that unreliable geographically focused sporadic-E
propagation may briefly couple some lucky mid-latitude stations into
TEP and oblique-TEP propagation through mid-May.

40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to
south and southeast east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during
Friday and normal on Saturday and Sunday.


This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The visible solar disk has one decaying very large active region, one stable medium region, one decaying medium region and two small regions. There are 54 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1440 micro-solar hemispheres (approximately nine times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly below 500 km/second until late Friday increasing to above 500 km/second from late Friday through early Saturday, then declining below 500 km/second from early Saturday through late Sunday.

Active geomagnetic conditions are likely from Friday through early Saturday with likely brief minor geomagnetic storm conditions late Friday. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are likely from early Saturday through late Sunday

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday, improving to normal during Saturday and Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday, normal on Saturday and Sunday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or both ends of propagation paths during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or both ends of propagation paths during Friday, Saturday and Sunday,

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or both ends of propagation paths during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday,

12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or both ends of propagation paths during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

There is a very slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 72 minutes earlier and sunset is 50 minutes later than it was on March 20th.

Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with mildly disturbed periods on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be
mostly normal with mildly disturbed periods on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

The 2300Z Monday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 118.

The late Monday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 68.

There is a chance of 6 meter TEP propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America. There is a slight chance of oblique TEP propagation to the South Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa through May. There is a chance that unreliable geographically focused sporadic-E propagation may briefly couple some lucky mid-latitude stations into TEP and oblique-TEP propagation through May.

40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Monday, Wednesday and Wednesday.


This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The visible solar disk has one medium and three small active regions. There are 13 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 330 micro-solar hemispheres (approximately twice the surface area of the Earth).


Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly above 400 km/second through Wednesday.

Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely on Monday, improving to quiet to unsettled on Tuesday and Wednesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal to mildly degraded during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be mildly degraded during Monday and mostly normal to mildly degraded Tuesday and normal during Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal during Monday and Tuesday improving to mostly normal during Wednesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or both ends of propagation paths during Monday,Tuesday and Wednesday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mildly degraded during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal to mildly degraded during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal to mildly degraded during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

There is a very slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 78 minutes earlier and sunset is 57 minutes later than it was on March 20th.

Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal during Friday and Saturday improving to normal during Sunday.

HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

The 2300Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 120.

The early Friday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN)
was 132.

There is a chance of 6 meter TEP propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America. There is a slight chance of oblique TEP propagation to the South Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa through May.
There is a chance that unreliable geographically focused sporadic-E propagation may briefly couple some lucky mid-latitude stations into TEP and oblique-TEP propagation through May.

40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Friday and Saturday and normal on Sunday.

This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The visible solar disk has and two growing small active regions, five stable small regions and one decaying small region. There are 19 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 350 micro-solar hemispheres (approximately twice the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly near 500 km/second during Friday, gradually declining to about 400 km/second or less by Sunday.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions with a chance of active intervals are likely on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

There is a very slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 81 minutes earlier and sunset is 61 minutes later than it was on March 20th.

Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
normal during Tuesday degrading to mostly normal to mildly disturbed
during Wednesday and moistly normal during Thursday.

HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal during
Tuesday degrading to mostly normal during Wednesday and Thursday.

HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday

The 2300Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 134.

The late Sunday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 123

There is a chance of 6 meter TEP propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America. There is a slight chance of oblique TEP propagation to the South Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa through May. There is a chance that unreliable geographically focused sporadic-E propagation may briefly couple some lucky mid-latitude stations into TEP and oblique-TEP propagation through May.

40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia is likely to be normal during Tuesday and mostly normal during Wednesday and Thursday.

This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The visible solar disk has one growing medium active region, two stable medium regions and four small regions. There are 33 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 790 micro-solar hemispheres (approximately five times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.com/regions.htm

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly below 400 km/second during Tuesday then increasing to about 500 km/second during Wednesday and gradually declining below 500 km/second during Thursday.
Minor to moderate radio blackouts with a chance Strong R3 radio blsckoutd are likely during Monday, Tuesday and Thursday.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely during Tuesday, unsettled to minor geomagnetic storm conditions are likely during Wednesday and unsettled to active conditions are likely during Thursday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal during Tuesday, mostly normal to mildly disturbed during Wednesday improving to mostly normal during Thursday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be normal during Tuesday, mostly normal to mildly degraded during Wednesday and mostly normal during Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal during Tuesday and Wednesday and mostly normal during Thursday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
normal during Tuesday, mostly normal to mildly degraded during Wednesday and mostly normal during Thursday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
normal during Tuesday, mostly normal to mildly degraded during Wednesday and mostly normal during Thursday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal during Tuesday, mostly normal to mildly degraded during Wednesday and mostly normal during Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal during Tuesday, mostly normal to mildly degraded during Wednesday and mostly normal during Thursday.

12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal during Tuesday, mostly normal to mildly degraded during Wednesday and mostly normal during Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal during Tuesday, mostly normal to mildly degraded during Wednesday and mostly normal during Thursday.


There is a very slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 82 minutes earlier and sunset is 63 minutes later than it was on March 20th.

Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be moderately degraded during Monday and Tuesday,
possibly slowly improving to mildly degraded by early Wednesday
and mostly normal after midday Wednesday.

HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely
to be moderately degraded during Monday,
possibly slowly improving to mildly degraded during Tuesday
and mostly normal during Wednesday.

The 2300Z Tuesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 148.

The early Monday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 123.

There is a chance of 6 meter TEP propagation from the southern tier of
U.S. states to South America. There is a slight chance of oblique TEP
propagation to the South Pacific and sub-Saharan Africa through May.
There is a chance that unreliable geographically focused sporadic-E
propagation may briefly couple some lucky mid-latitude stations into
TEP and oblique-TEP propagation through May.

40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south
and southeast east Asia is likely to be moderately degraded through
Tuesday, possibly improving to mildly degraded by early Wednesday
and mostly normal after midday Wednesday


This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The visible solar disk has one stable large active region, one stable medium region and three small regions. There are 47 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 780 micro-solar hemispheres (approximately five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly above 700 km/second through at least midday Tuesday then possibly slowly declining to below 600 km/second after midday Wednesday.

Minor to moderate radio blackouts are likely and there is a slight chance of strong radio blackouts during daytime hours during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

S1 minor to S2 moderate solar radiation storm conditions are likely through Wednesday resulting in minor absorption of propagation crossing polar regions.

Active geomagnetic conditions with periods of minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions are likely through midday Tuesday. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely with a chance of periods of minor geomagnetic storms from midday Tuesday through late Wednesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be moderately degraded from Monday through midday Tuesday, possibly slowly improving to mostly normal from midday Tuesday through late Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during Monday, mostly normal to mildly degraded during Tuesday and mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation during Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during Monday, mildly degraded during Tuesday and mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation during Wednesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded during Monday and Tuesday, possibly improving to mildly degraded by early Wednesday and mostly normal after midday Wednesday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
moderately degraded during Monday and Tuesday, possibly improving to mildly degraded by early Wednesday and mostly normal after midday Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded during Monday and Tuesday, possibly improving to mildly degraded by early Wednesday and mostly normal after midday Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be moderately degraded during Monday and Tuesday,, possibly improving to mildly degraded by early Wednesday and mostly normal after midday Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded during Monday and Tuesday, possibly improving to mildly degraded by early Wednesday and mostly normal after midday Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be moderately degraded during Monday and Tuesday, possibly improving to mildly degraded by early Wednesday and mostly normal after midday Wednesday.

There is a very slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 85 minutes earlier and sunset is 68 minutes later than it was on March 20th.

Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal, mild degradations are possible during local nighttime hours
during Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal
during Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal
during Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

The 2300Z Tuesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 132.

The early Wednesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN)
was 150.


There is a chance of 6 meter long distance sporadic-E propagation from
North America to Europe and Japan.
.
There is a chance of 6 meter TEP propagation from the southern tier of
U.S. states to South America. There is a slight chance of oblique TEP
propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the South Pacific
and sub-Saharan Africa through mid-June. There is a chance that
geographically focused sporadic-E propagation may couple some
lucky mid-latitude stations into TEP and oblique-TEP propagation
through mid-June.

We are in the summer solstice season when disturbed geomagnetic
conditions and geomagnetic storms are about half as likely and
less severe than during the equinox seasons.

40 through 15 meter long path propagation from North America to
south and southeast east Asia is likely to be mostly normal
during Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.


This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The visible solar disk has two growing medium active regions and four small active regions. There are 45 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 370 micro-solar hemispheres (approximately twice the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.com/regions.htm

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly between 400 and 500 km/second during Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

There is a chance of minor to moderate radio blackouts during daytime hours during Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely during Wednesday, mostly quiet conditions are likely during Thursday and unsettled to active conditions are likely during Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal during Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be mostly normal during Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal during Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal during Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

There is a very slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 86 minutes earlier and sunset is 72 minutes later than it was on March 20th.

Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mildly degraded during Thursday,
moderately degraded during Friday
and mostly normal during Saturday.

HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be
mostly normal during Thursday.
mildly degraded during Friday
and normal during Saturday.

HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal
during Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

The 2300Z Wednesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 136.

The early Thursday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN)
was 150.

We are in the summer solstice season when disturbed geomagnetic conditions
and geomagnetic storms are about half as likely, shorter in duration and
about half as strong as during the equinox seasons.

30, 20, 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to
south and southeast east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday,
mildly degraded during Friday
and normal during Saturday.

There is a chance of 6 meter long distance sporadic-E propagation from
North America to Europe and Japan during North American daytime hours.

This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, one stable medium active region and four small active regions.
There are 60 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 660 micro-solar hemispheres (approximately four times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.com/regions.htm

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly between 400 and 500 km/second during Thursday and Friday
and possibly below 400 km/second during Saturday.

Minor to moderate radio blackouts are expected during Thursday, Friday and Saturday daytime hours.
There is a chance of a strong radio blackout during Thursday, Friday and Saturday daytime hours.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions with a chance of brief minor geomagnetic storms are likely during Thursday.
Quiet to active conditions with a possible minor geomagnetic storm are likely during Friday.
Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely during Saturday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday, mildly degraded during Friday and normal during Saturday.
160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday, mildly degraded during Friday and mostly normal during Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday, mildly degraded during Friday and normal during Saturday..

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday, mildly degraded during Friday and normal during Saturday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal during Thursday, mildly degraded during Friday and normal during Saturday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday, mildly degraded during Friday and normal during Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday, mildly degraded during Friday and normal during Saturday.

12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday, mildly degraded during Friday and normal during Saturday.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 86 minutes earlier and sunset is 76 minutes later than it was on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mildly to moderately degraded during Thursday, Friday and Saturday
particularly during nighttime hours.

HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be
mostly normal during Thursday and
mildly degraded during Friday and Saturday particularly during nighttime hours.

HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be
mostly normal during Thursday and
mildly degraded during Friday and Saturday particularly during nighttime hours

The 2300Z Wednesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 118.
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php

The late Wednesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN)
was 91.
www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

We are in the summer solstice season when disturbed geomagnetic
conditions and geomagnetic storms are about half as likely,
shorter in duration and not as strong as during the equinox seasons.

30, 20, 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America
to south and southeast Asia is likely to be mildly degraded
during Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

There is a chance of 6 meter long distance sporadic-E propagation from
North America to Europe during North American daytime hours.
There is a slight chance of long distance sporadic-E propagation to the
Middle East and Central Asia during North American morning daytime hours.
There is a slight chance of long distance sporadic-E propagation to Japan
and nearby countries during North American late afternoon and early evening
hours.

This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The visible solar disk has one decaying medium active region and four small active regions.
There are 40 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 330 micro-solar hemispheres (approximately twice the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.com/regions.htm

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain above 500 km/second during Thursday and Friday declining below 500 km/second during Saturday.

There is a chance of minor to moderate radio blackouts during Thursday, Friday and Saturday daytime hours.
There is a slight chance of a strong radio blackout during Thursday, Friday and Saturday daytime hours.

.Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely during Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
Periods of mostly minor geomagnetic storms with a chance of moderate storms are likely from late Thursday through early Friday

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday and Friday and mildly degraded during Saturday.
160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be mildly degraded during Thursday, improving to mostly normal during Friday and Saturday.
Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mildly degraded during Thursday, improving to mostly normal during Friday and Saturday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during Thursday, Friday and Saturday particularly during nighttime hours.
30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mildly to moderately degraded during Thursday, Friday and Saturday particularly during nighttime hours.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during Thursday, Friday and Saturday particularly during nighttime hours.
Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during Thursday, Friday and Saturday

There is a slight chance of 12 and 10 meter long distance sporadic-E propagation crossing the northern hemisphere auroral oval and sub-auroral regions during Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms.
Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more
for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms
may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours
or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is two minutes later and sunset is one minute later than it was on June 20th.
Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region.
Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.