W3LPL Propagation forecast

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly to moderately degraded

during local nighttime hours during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be

mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



The 2200Z Sunday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 158 .


The early Tuesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 100.

6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south

and southeast east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours

and mildly degraded during local nighttime hours during Tuesday, Wednesday

and Thursday,


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning.


The visible solar disk has one growing medium active region, three stable medium active regions and three small active regions. There are 24 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 840 micro-solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain elevated mostly above 500 km/second through late Thursday.



Unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on Tuesday with isolated active intervals late in the day. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on Wednesday with isolated active intervals late in the day. Mostly unsettled conditions are likely on Thursday with possible active to minor geomagnetic storm conditions late in the day.




There is a slight chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may slightly degrade propagation crossing polar regions on Tuesday.


M-class solar flares are likely to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mildly degraded Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly degraded during local nighttime hours during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly degraded during local nighttime hours during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 20 minutes earlier and sunset is 53 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly to moderately degraded

during local nighttime hours during Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be

mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



The 2200Z Wednesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 169 .

The late Wednesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 87.

6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly degraded during local nighttime hours during Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning.


The visible solar disk has two growing medium active regions, two stable medium active regions and two small active regions. There are 28 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 800 micro-solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be mostly above 400 km/second on Thursday, above 500 km/second on Friday and near 500 km/second on Saturday.



Mostly unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on Thursday with active conditions before the likely arrival of a brief minor geomagnetic storm late in the day. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on Friday with isolated active intervals and a chance minor geomagnetic storm late in the day. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on Saturday with possible unsettled conditions late in the day.




No S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms are expected.

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. It is unlikely that X-class solar flares will cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be moderately degraded on Thursday, mildly degraded on Friday and mostly normal on Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours during Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours during Thursday, Friday and Saturday



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours during Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly degraded during local nighttime hours during Thursday, Friday and Saturday



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours during Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly degraded during local nighttime hours during Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 22 minutes earlier and sunset is 55 minutes later than it was on December 21st.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.


SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z at

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar region

is likely to be moderately degraded during Friday daytime hours,

improving to mildly degraded during Friday night and further improving

to mostly normal during Saturday and Sunday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded

on Friday, improving to mostly normal on Saturday and further

improving to normal on Sunday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal on Friday,

Saturday and Sunday.



The 2200Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 177 .

The late Thursday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 107.

6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south

and southeast east Asia is likely to be moderately degraded during

Friday daytime hours, improving to mildly degraded during Friday

local nighttime hours, then further improving to mostly normal

during Saturday and Sunday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning.


The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, three growing medium active regions, one decaying medium active region and three small active regions. There are 32 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1200 micro-solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be near or above 500 km/second on Friday and Saturday then declining to about 400 km/second or more on Sunday.



Mostly active geomagnetic conditions are likely on Friday until arrival of minor geomagnetic storms after midday. Unsettled to active conditions are likely during early Saturday hours. Mostly quiet conditions are likely during midday Saturday, then degrading to unsettled to active from late Saturday through early Sunday. Mostly quiet conditions are likely from before midday through late Sunday with possible unsettled conditions developing late in the day.




No S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms are expected.


There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. It is unlikely that X-class solar flares will cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday, mildly degraded on Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded during Friday daytime hours improving to mildly degraded during Friday local nighttime hours. Propagation is likely to improve to mostly normal during Saturday and Sunday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded during Friday daytime hours improving to mildly degraded during Friday local nighttime hours. Propagation is likely to improve to mostly normal during Saturday and Sunday.



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded during Friday daytime hours improving to mildly degraded during Friday local nighttime hours. Propagation is likely to improve to mostly normal during Saturday and Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be moderately degraded during Friday daytime hours improving to mildly degraded during Friday local nighttime hours then further improving to mostly normal during Saturday and Sunday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded during Friday daytime hours improving to mildly degraded during Friday local nighttime hours. Propagation is likely to improve to mostly normal during Saturday and Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be moderately degraded during Friday daytime hours improving to mildly degraded during Friday local nighttime hours then further improving to mostly normal during Saturday and Sunday..



6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 24 minutes earlier and sunset is 57 minutes later than it was on December 21st.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely

to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during

local nighttime hours during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal

on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



The 2200Z Sunday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 185 .

The early Monday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 214.

There is a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP season

improves in March.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south

and southeast east Asia is likely to be normal during local daytime hours

and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



There is a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP season improves in March. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning any time from local late morning to evening hours.


The visible solar disk has one growing medium active region, two stable medium active regions, one decaying medium active region and eight small active regions. There are 151 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1270 micro-solar hemispheres (about eight times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be near or above 500 km/second from Monday through midday Tuesday then gradually declining to near 400 km/second or less from late Tuesday through late Wednesday.



Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely through late Monday. Unsettled to active conditions are likely from early through midday Tuesday, then returning to quiet to unsettled conditions through late Wednesday.




No S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms are expected.

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. It is unlikely that X-class solar flares will cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, mildly degraded on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



There is a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP season improves in March. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 27 minutes earlier and sunset is 59 minutes later than it was on December 21st.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Some of the best HF propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely on Thursday

and Friday



HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely

to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during

local nighttime hours during Wednesday, and normal during both

day and night on Thursday and Friday.



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal

on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



The 2200Z Monday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 175 .

The late Monday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 155.

There is only a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until

TEP propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during

the March and April equinox season.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America t

south and southeast east Asia is likely to be normal during local daytime

hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Wednesday,

and normal during both day and night on Thursday and Friday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



There is only a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during the March and April equinox season. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning any time from local late morning to evening hours.


The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, two growing medium active regions, one stable medium active region, one decaying medium active region and four small active regions. There are 87 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1465 micro-solar hemispheres (about nine times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be below 500 km/second early Wednesday then gradually declining to about 400 km/second or less on Thursday and Friday.



Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely through early Thursday. Quiet conditions are likely from midday Wednesday through late Friday.




No S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms are expected.


There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares will cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday and Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday and Friday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Wednesday, and normal during both day and night on Thursday and Friday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Wednesday, and normal during both day and night on Thursday and Friday.



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Wednesday, and normal during both day and night on Thursday and Friday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Wednesday, and normal during both day and night on Thursday and Friday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Wednesday, and normal during both day and night on Thursday and Friday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Wednesday, and normal during both day and night on Thursday and Friday..



There is only a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during the March and April equinox season. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 30 minutes earlier and sunset is 62 minutes later than it was on December 21st.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Some of the best HF propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely on Monday,

Tuesday and Wednesday but with a chance of brief intervals of slight

degradation of propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions

during late Monday and late Tuesday local nighttime hours.



HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

normal during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance of brief

intervals of slight degradation during late Monday and late Tuesday

local nighttime hours



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal on

Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



The 2200Z Sunday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 209 .


The late Sunday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 180.

There is only a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during the March and April equinox season.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia is likely to be normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday but with a chance of brief intervals of slight degradation of propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions during late Monday and late Tuesday local nighttime hours.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



There is only a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during the March and April equinox season. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning any time from local late morning to evening hours.


The visible solar disk has three growing medium active regions, three decaying medium active regions and five small active regions. There are 76 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1230 micro-solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be below 400 km/second on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.




There is a slight chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may slightly degrade propagation crossing polar regions.

M-class solar flares are likely to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares will cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



There is only a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during the March and April equinox season. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 36 minutes earlier and sunset is 67 minutes later than it was on December 21st.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Some of the best HF propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely on Tuesday,

Wednesday and Thursday but with a chance of brief intervals of

slightly degraded propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions

during local nighttime hours.



HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

normal during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with a chance of

brief intervals of slightly degraded propagation during local nighttime hours



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal on

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



The 2200Z Monday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 205 .

The early Tuesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 177.

There is only a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until

TEP propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during the

March and April equinox season.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south

and southeast east Asia is likely to be normal on Tuesday, Wednesday

and Thursday but with a chance of brief intervals of slightly degraded

propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions during local

nighttime hours.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



There is only a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during the March and April equinox season. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning any time from local late morning to evening hours.


The visible solar disk has two growing large active regions, one stable medium active region, two decaying medium active regions and four small active regions. There are 82 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1410 micro-solar hemispheres (about eight times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be below 400 km/second on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions with isolated brief unsettled intervals are likely on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.




S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms are expected that may slightly degrade propagation crossing the south polar region. There is a chance of S2 moderate solar energetic particle radiation storms that moderately affect propagation crossing mainly crossing the south polar region.


M-class solar flares are likely to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares will cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



There is only a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during the March and April equinox season. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 37 minutes earlier and sunset is 68 minutes later than it was on December 21st.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

moderately degraded during local nighttime hours from late Friday through

early Saturday. Mild degradation is likely during local nighttime hours

from late Saturday through early Sunday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mildly to moderately

degraded from Friday through midday Saturday improving to mostly normal

from midday Saturday through late Sunday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded from

Friday through midday Saturday improving to mostly normal from midday

Saturday through late Sunday.



The 2200Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 177 .


The early Friday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 108.

There is only a very slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP

propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during the mid-Marc

to early April equinox season. Mid latitude stations need a sporadic-E hop

to connect into TEP.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south and

southeast east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded from Friday through midday

Saturday improving to mostly normal from midday Saturday through late Sunday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



There is only a very slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during the mid-March to early April equinox season. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until late March but could occur without warning any time from local late morning to evening hours.

The visible solar disk has one stable large active region, one decaying large active region, one stable medium active region and four small active regions. There are 59 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 830 micro-solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be above 500 km/second from Friday through midday Saturday and gradually declining below 500 km/second from midday Saturday through late Sunday.



Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely from Friday through midday Saturday with minor geomagnetic storm conditions likely and a chance of a moderate geomagnetic storm. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely from midday Saturday through late Sunday with a chance of minor geomagnetic storm conditions.




S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms are likely to slightly degrade propagation crossing the south polar region.

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. X-class solar flares will cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are not expected during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mildly degraded from Friday through midday Saturday improving to mostly normal from midday Saturday through late Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Friday and mostly normal on Saturday and Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Friday and Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded from Friday through midday Saturday improving to mostly normal from midday Saturday through late Sunday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded from Friday through midday Saturday improving to mostly normal from midday Saturday through late Sunday.



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded from Friday through midday Saturday improving to mostly normal from midday Saturday through late Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded from Friday through midday Saturday improving to mostly normal from midday Saturday through late Sunday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded from Friday through midday Saturday improving to mostly normal from midday Saturday through late Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded from Friday through midday Saturday improving to mostly normal from midday Saturday through late Sunday.



There is only a very slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during the mid-March to early April equinox season. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 43 minutes earlier and sunset is 74 minutes later than it was on December 21st.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday then degrading

slightly by late Saturday.



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal

on Thursday, Friday and Saturday



The 2200Z Tuesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 156


The late Monday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 145

There is a chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until it becomes

more frequent and long lasting during the mid-March through early April

equinox season. Sporadic-E propagation is likely to more frequently

couple mid-latitude stations into TEP propagation by mid to late March.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south

and southeast east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday

and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, two stable medium regions and seven small active regions. There are 47 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 730 micro-solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).


Solar wind velocity is likely to gradually decline below 400 km/second through midday Saturday then increasing to 400 km/second or more by late Saturday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then becoming slightly degraded by late Saturday.






S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that degrade propagation crossing the south polar region are unlikely on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.


There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. No X-class solar flares that typically cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are likely on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday . 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday

.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday.



There is a slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at:


There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. No X-class solar flares that typically cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are likely on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday . 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday

.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday.



There is a slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at:

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

mildly to moderately degraded mostly during local nighttime hours on

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal on

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal on

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



The 2200Z Monday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 151 .


The early Tuesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 117.

There is a chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until it becomes

more frequent and long lasting during the mid-March through early April

equinox season. Sporadic-E propagation is likely to more frequently coupl

mid-latitude stations into TEP propagation by mid to late March.



Disturbed geomagnetic conditions and geomagnetic storms are about twice

as likely during the late March early April equinox season and more severe

than during the summer and winter solstice seasons.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south and

southeast east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



The visible solar disk has one growing medium active region, one stable medium active region, one decaying medium active region and two small active regions. There are 24 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 500 micro-solar hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).


Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly near 500 km/second on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



Mostly unsettled geomagnetic conditions with brief active periods are likely on Tuesday, improving to mostly quiet to unsettled on Wednesday, then degrading to mostly unsettled to active on Thursday.




S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that degrade propagation crossing the south polar region are unlikely on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. No X-class solar flares that typically cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are likely on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded mostly during local nighttime hours on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be moderately degraded on Tuesday, mildly degraded on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded mostly during local nighttime hours on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday . 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded mostly during local nighttime hours on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday

.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded mostly during local nighttime hours on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded mostly during local nighttime hours on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday



There is a slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 58 minutes earlier and sunset is 83 minutes later than it was on December 21st.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.