W3LPL Propagation forecast

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

mildly to moderately degraded mostly during local nighttime hours on

Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal on

Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal on

Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



The 2200Z Tuesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 162


The late Tuesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 141

There is a chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until it becomes more

frequent and long lasting during the mid-March through early April equinox

season. Sporadic-E propagation is likely to more frequently couple mid-latitude

stations into TEP propagation by mid to late March.



Disturbed geomagnetic conditions and geomagnetic storms are now about

twice as likely and more severe and long lasting than during the summer

and winter solstice seasons.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south

and southeast east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded on Wednesday,

Thursday and Friday.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



The visible solar disk has one growing medium active region, one stable medium active region, one decaying medium active region and three small active regions. There are 48 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 610 micro-solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).


Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly near 500 km/second on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on Wednesday, degrading to mostly unsettled with isolated active periods on Thursday and Friday.




S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that degrade propagation crossing the south polar region are unlikely on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.


There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause isolated periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. No X-class solar flares that typically cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are likely on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday and Thursday and mildly degraded on Friday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded mostly during local nighttime hours on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday . 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded mostly during local nighttime hours on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday

.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded mostly during local nighttime hours on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded during Wednesday, Thursday and Friday



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded mostly during local nighttime hours on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded during Wednesday, Thursday and Friday



There is a slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 59 minutes earlier and sunset is 84 minutes later than it was on December 21st.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours on Thursday

and Friday gradually improving to mostly normal after early Saturday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded

on Thursday and mostly normal on Friday and Saturday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded

on Thursday and normal on Friday and Saturday.



The 2200Z Tuesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 160 .


The late Tuesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 158.

There is a chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until it becomes more

frequent and long lasting during the mid-March through early April equinox

season. Sporadic-E propagation is likely to more frequently couple

mid-latitude stations into TEP propagation by mid to late March.



Disturbed geomagnetic conditions and geomagnetic storms are now about

twice as likely and more severe and long lasting than during the summer

and winter solstice seasons.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south

and southeast east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded mostly during

local nighttime hours on Thursday and Friday nights improving to

mostly normal after early Saturday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



The visible solar disk has two growing medium active regions, one stable medium active region, and seven small active regions. There are 60 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 640 micro-solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).


Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly near 500 km/second on Thursday and Friday then gradually declining by midday Saturday.



Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely on Thursday, improving to mostly unsettled with isolated active periods on Friday then further improving to quiet to unsettled after early Saturday.




S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that degrade propagation crossing the south polar region are unlikely on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.


There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause isolated periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. No X-class solar flares that typically cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are likely on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded early Thursday and Friday improving to mostly normal during early Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Thursday improving to mostly normal on Friday and Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Thursday and Friday improving to mostly normal on Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours on Thursday and Friday gradually improving to mostly normal after early Saturday . 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours on Thursday and Friday gradually improving to mostly normal after early Saturday.

.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours on Thursday and Friday gradually improving to mostly normal after early Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded during local nighttime hours on Thursday and Friday gradually improving to mostly normal after early Saturday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours on Thursday and Friday gradually improving to mostly normal after early Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded during local nighttime hours on Thursday and Friday gradually improving to mostly normal after early Saturday.



There is a slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 61 minutes earlier and sunset is 85 minutes later than it was on December 21st.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Some of the best HF propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely

from early Friday through at least midday Saturday.



HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions

is likely to be normal from Friday through late Saturday,

mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Saturday

through early Sunday then improving to mostly normal after

midday Sunday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal from

Friday through late Saturday, mildly degraded during local nighttime

hours from late Saturday until early Sunday then improving to

mostly normal after midday Sunday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal on

Friday, Saturday and Sunday.



The 2300Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 168 .


The early Friday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 171.

There is a chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until it becomes

more frequent and long lasting during the late-March through early April

equinox season. Sporadic-E propagation is likely to more frequently

couple mid-latitude stations into TEP propagation from late March through

April.



Disturbed geomagnetic conditions and geomagnetic storms are now

about twice as likely and more severe and long lasting than during th

summer and winter solstice seasons.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south

and southeast east Asia is likely to be normal from Friday through late

Saturday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Saturday

until early Sunday then improving to mostly normal after midday Sunday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



The visible solar disk has one decaying medium active region and eight small active regions. There are 49 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 530 micro-solar hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).


Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly near 400 km/second from Friday until late Saturday then increasing to about 500 km/second from late Saturday until early Sunday then declining to below 500 km/second by midday Sunday.



Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely from Friday through at least midday Saturday, degrading to unsettled to active from late Saturday until midday Sunday then improving to mostly quiet from midday through late Sunday.




S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that degrade propagation crossing the south polar region are unlikely on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.


There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause isolated periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. No X-class solar flares that typically cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are likely on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2330Z is likely to be normal on Friday, mildly degraded on Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal on Friday and Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal from Friday through late Saturday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Saturday until early Sunday then improving to mostly normal after midday Sunday . 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal from Friday through late Saturday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Saturday until early Sunday then improving to mostly normal after midday Sunday.




17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal from Friday through late Saturday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Saturday until early Sunday then improving to mostly normal after midday Sunday.. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal from Friday through late Saturday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Saturday through early Sunday then improving to mostly normal after midday Sunday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal from Friday through late Saturday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Saturday until early Sunday then improving to mostly normal after midday Sunday... Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal from Friday through late Saturday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Saturday until early Sunday then improving to mostly normal after midday Sunday.



There is a slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is two minutes earlier and sunset is one minutes later than it was on March 20th.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be

normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



The 2300Z Sunday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 165 .


The early Monday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 81.

There is a chance of 6 meter TEP propagation for at least the next few weeks.

Geographically focused sporadic-E propagation is likely to couple some luck

mid-latitude stations into TEP propagation for at least the next few weeks.



Disturbed geomagnetic conditions and geomagnetic storms are about

twice as likely, more severe and longer lasting during the late March

and early April equinox season than during the summer and winter solstice

seasons.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to

south and southeast east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Monday,

Tuesday and Wednesday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



The visible solar disk has one decaying medium active region and several small active regions. There are 30 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 430 micro-solar hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly near 400 km/second from Monday until midday Tuesday then possibly increasing to about 500 km/second from late Tuesday until early Wednesday, then declining to below 500 km/second by midday Wednesday.



Mostly active geomagnetic conditions are likely through at least midday Monday, improving to mostly unsettled from midday Monday until late Wednesday. There is a chance of minor to moderate geomagnetic storm activity through midday Wednesday due to possible coronal hole high speed stream effects




S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that degrade propagation crossing the south polar region are unlikely on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.


There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause isolated periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. No X-class solar flares that typically cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are likely on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2330Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Monday through late Tuesday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Tuesday until early Wednesday then improving to mostly normal after midday Wednesday . 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



There is a slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is six minutes earlier and sunset is four minutes later than it was on March 20th.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

mostly normal on Wednesday, moderately degraded on Thursday and

mildly degraded on Friday. Possible periods of geomagnetic storming

may moderately degrade propagation during local nighttime hours

from late Wednesday through midday Thursday



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal on Wednesday,

mostly normal on Thursday and Friday with possible mildly degraded

periods during local nighttime hours from late Wednesday through

midday Thursday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal on Wednesday

and Thursday and mostly normal on Friday.



The 2300Z Tuesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 153 .


The early Wednesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 76.

There is an improved chance of 6 meter TEP propagation from the southern

tier of U.S. states to South America and chance of oblique TEP propagation

to the South Pacific for at least the next few weeks. There is a chance that

geographically focused sporadic-E propagation may couple some lucky

mid-latitude stations into TEP propagation for at least the next few weeks.



Disturbed geomagnetic conditions and geomagnetic storms are about twice

as likely, more severe and longer lasting during the equinox season through

mid-April than during the usually geomagnetically quiet summer and winter

solstice seasons.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south and

southeast east Asia is likely to be normal on Wednesday, mostly normal on

Thursday and mildly degraded on Friday with possible mildly degraded periods

from during local nighttime hours from late Wednesday through midday Thursday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



The visible solar disk has one growing medium active region and three small active regions. There are 18 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 440 micro-solar hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly at 400 km/second or less until midday Wednesday then possibly increasing to about 500 km/second from late Wednesday until late Thursday, then declining to below 500 km/second by midday Friday.



Mostly active geomagnetic conditions are likely through at least late Thursday, improving to mostly unsettled during Friday. There is a chance of minor to moderate geomagnetic storms from midday Wednesday through late Thursday due to expected coronal hole high speed stream effects.




S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that degrade propagation crossing the south polar region are unlikely on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause isolated periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. No X-class solar flares that typically cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are likely on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal during Wednesday and Thursday and mostly normal on Friday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2330Z is likely to be moderately degraded on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday and Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday, mildly degraded on Thursday and mostly normal on Friday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday, moderately degraded on Thursday and mildly degraded on Friday . 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

mostly normal on Wednesday, moderately degraded on Thursday and mildly degraded on Friday



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday, moderately degraded on Thursday and mildly degraded on Friday . Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday, moderately degraded on Thursday and mildly degraded on Friday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday, moderately degraded on Thursday and mildly degraded on Friday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday, moderately degraded on Thursday and mildly degraded on Friday.



There is a slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is eight minutes earlier and sunset is four minutes later than it was on March 20th.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

moderately degraded on Thursday, mildly degraded on Friday and

mostly normal on Saturday. There is a chance that isolated periods

of geomagnetic storming may moderately degrade propagation during

local nighttime hours until midday Friday,



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mildly disturbed

on Thursday and Friday and mostly normal on Saturday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be mostly normal

on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



The 2300Z Wednesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 155 .


The early Thursday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 95.


There is an improved chance of 6 meter TEP propagation from the southern

tier of U.S. states to South America and chance of oblique TEP propagation

to the South Pacific for at least the next few weeks. There is a chance that

geographically focused sporadic-E propagation may couple some lucky

mid-latitude stations into TEP propagation for at least the next few weeks.



Disturbed geomagnetic conditions and geomagnetic storms are about twic

as likely, more severe and longer lasting during the equinox season through

mid-April than during the usually geomagnetically quiet summer and winter

solstice seasons.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south and

southeast east Asia is likely to be moderately degraded normal on

Thursday, mildly degraded on Friday and mostly normal on Saturday.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



The visible solar disk has one stable medium active region and three small active regions. There are 29 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 415 micro-solar hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly above 600 km/second on Thursday declining to about 500 km/second on Friday, then further declining to below 500 km/second on Saturday.



Active geomagnetic conditions are likely through late Friday, improving to quiet to unsettled during Saturday. There is a chance of minor geomagnetic storms through Friday due to expected coronal hole high speed stream effects.




S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that degrade propagation crossing the south polar region are unlikely on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause isolated periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. No X-class solar flares that typically cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are likely on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2330Z is likely to be moderately degraded on Thursday and Friday mostly normal on Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Thursday and Friday and mostly normal on Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded on Thursday, mildly degraded on Friday and mostly normal on Saturday . 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

moderately degraded on Thursday, mildly degraded on Friday and mostly normal on Saturday.



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded on Thursday, mildly degraded on Friday and mostly normal on Saturday . Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be moderately degraded on Thursday, mildly degraded on Friday and mostly normal on Saturday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded on Thursday, mildly degraded on Friday and mostly normal on Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be moderately degraded on Thursday, mildly degraded on Friday and mostly normal on Saturday.



There is a slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is ten minutes earlier and sunset is six minutes later than it was on March 20th.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.