HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mildly to moderately degraded especially during local nighttime hours
through midday Wednesday, improving to mildly degraded through
midday Thursday then becoming mostly normal after midday Thursday.
HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal
to mildly degraded on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be mostly normal
on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
The 2300Z Sunday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 159.
There is a chance of 6 meter TEP propagation from the southern tier of
U.S. states to South America. There is a slight chance of oblique TEP
propagation to the South Pacific through late April. There is a chance
that unreliable geographically focused sporadic-E propagation may
briefly couple some lucky mid-latitude stations into TEP propagation
through late-April.
40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south
and southeast east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded during local
nighttime hours through late Thursday.
This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .
All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The visible solar disk has one decaying large active region, one decaying medium active region, and four small active regions. There are 57 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 800 micro-solar hemispheres (approximately five times the surface area of the Earth).
Solar wind velocity is likely to remain at about 600 km/second through midday Thursday, then steadily declining to about 450 km/second or less from midday through late Thursday.
Brief periods of minor geomagnetic storm conditions are likely from early Tuesday through early Wednesday; otherwise, unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely from early Tuesday through midday Thursday.
There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. 1 60 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2330Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Tuesday then mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Tuesday and mildly degraded on Wednesday and Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours through early Wednesday, then becoming mildly degraded during local nighttime hours through midday Thursday. Mostly normal propagation is likely after midday Thursday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours through early Wednesday, then becoming mildly degraded during local nighttime hours through midday Thursday. Mostly normal propagation is likely after midday Thursday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours through early Wednesday, then becoming mildly degraded during local nighttime hours through midday Thursday. Mostly normal propagation is likely after midday Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours through early Wednesday, then becoming mildly degraded during local nighttime hours through midday Thursday. Mostly normal propagation is likely after midday Thursday.
12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours through early Wednesday, then becoming mildly degraded during local nighttime hours through midday Thursday. Mostly normal propagation is likely after midday Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours through early Wednesday, then becoming mildly degraded during local nighttime hours through midday Thursday. Mostly normal propagation is likely after midday Thursday.
There is a slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 50 minutes earlier and sunset is 33 minutes later than it was on March 20th.
Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.
mildly to moderately degraded especially during local nighttime hours
through midday Wednesday, improving to mildly degraded through
midday Thursday then becoming mostly normal after midday Thursday.
HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal
to mildly degraded on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be mostly normal
on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
The 2300Z Sunday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 159.
There is a chance of 6 meter TEP propagation from the southern tier of
U.S. states to South America. There is a slight chance of oblique TEP
propagation to the South Pacific through late April. There is a chance
that unreliable geographically focused sporadic-E propagation may
briefly couple some lucky mid-latitude stations into TEP propagation
through late-April.
40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south
and southeast east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded during local
nighttime hours through late Thursday.
This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .
All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The visible solar disk has one decaying large active region, one decaying medium active region, and four small active regions. There are 57 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 800 micro-solar hemispheres (approximately five times the surface area of the Earth).
Solar wind velocity is likely to remain at about 600 km/second through midday Thursday, then steadily declining to about 450 km/second or less from midday through late Thursday.
Brief periods of minor geomagnetic storm conditions are likely from early Tuesday through early Wednesday; otherwise, unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely from early Tuesday through midday Thursday.
There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. 1 60 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2330Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Tuesday then mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Tuesday and mildly degraded on Wednesday and Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours through early Wednesday, then becoming mildly degraded during local nighttime hours through midday Thursday. Mostly normal propagation is likely after midday Thursday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours through early Wednesday, then becoming mildly degraded during local nighttime hours through midday Thursday. Mostly normal propagation is likely after midday Thursday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours through early Wednesday, then becoming mildly degraded during local nighttime hours through midday Thursday. Mostly normal propagation is likely after midday Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours through early Wednesday, then becoming mildly degraded during local nighttime hours through midday Thursday. Mostly normal propagation is likely after midday Thursday.
12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours through early Wednesday, then becoming mildly degraded during local nighttime hours through midday Thursday. Mostly normal propagation is likely after midday Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours through early Wednesday, then becoming mildly degraded during local nighttime hours through midday Thursday. Mostly normal propagation is likely after midday Thursday.
There is a slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 50 minutes earlier and sunset is 33 minutes later than it was on March 20th.
Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.
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