W3LPL Propagation forecast

[4L5A]

The solar flux index declined slightly to 216 during Wednesday while SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number rose significantly to 204 during early Thursday. Slightly more reliable 6 meter F2 propagation is likely through midday Wednesday. Unsettled to minor geomagnetic storm conditions are likely to degrade the reliability of 6 meter F2 propagation from about midday Thursday through early Saturday. Slightly improved F2 propagation is possible by about midday Saturday.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal through about midday Thursday. Mild to moderately degraded MUFs are likely mainly during local nighttime hours from about midday Thursday through about midday Friday. Improved propagation is likely by midday Saturday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal through about midday Friday. Mildly degraded MUFs are likely mainly during local nighttime hours from midday Friday through midday Saturday. Improved propagation is likely by midday Saturday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through at least Saturday.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Slightly more widespread, slightly more reliable and slightly longer duration global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely through about midday Thursday and during Saturday if geomagnetic activity remains mostly quiet. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 216 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number rose significantly to 204 early Thursday and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, one decaying large active region and one stable medium active region. The remaining six active regions are small and mostly stable. There are 63 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1130 micro solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain near background levels below 400 km/second through about midday Thursday, increasing above 400 km/second from about midday Thursday through early Saturday then gradually waning to about 400 km/second or less after about midday Saturday.



Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through about midday Thursday. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely from about midday Thursday through about midday Saturday, with a chance of minor geomagnetic storm conditions from about late Friday through about early Saturday. We are entering the winter solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through about midday Thursday. MUFs are likely to be mildly to degraded mainly during local nighttime hours from about midday Thursday through early Saturday but periods of moderate degradation are possible if the north-south (Bz) component of the interplanetary magnetic field is oriented southwards for several hours.

M-class solar flares are likely to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday.


There is a chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may cause slightly increased polar absorption through at least Saturday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Friday improving to mostly normal on Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday and mildly degraded from before midday Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Thursday, mildly to moderately degraded during Friday then gradually improving by early to midday Saturday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Thursday, mildly to moderately degraded during Friday then gradually improving by early to midday Saturday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through late November due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Thursday, mildly to moderately degraded during Friday then gradually improving by early to midday Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday then degrading to mildly to moderately degraded on Friday and Saturday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through about midday Friday, mildly to moderately degraded from about midday Friday though about midday Saturday then improving to mostly normal after about midday Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday then degrading to mildly to moderately degraded on Friday and Saturday.



There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z. Significant improvement is possible if the solar flux index significantly exceeds 200 for several days. There is a chance enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 69 minutes later and sunset is 77 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

The observed solar flux index declined slightly to 187 during Monday.

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) increased to 155 during early Tuesday.

These are excellent numbers for reliable HF F2 DX propagation but too low for reliable 6 meter F2 DX.




Unreliable 6 meter F2 propagation is likely over the next seven days.

There is a chance of slightly more reliable 6 meter F2 propagation later next week.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal through at least Thursday.



HF propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through at least Thursday

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Unreliable, short duration, geographically focused global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely through at least Thursday if geomagnetic activity remains well below 200. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is unreliable and unlikely.


The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 187 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday.

The latest SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 155 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday.

The visible solar disk has one decaying large active region, two stable medium active regions and one decaying medium active regions. The remaining two active regions are stable and small. There are 43 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 910 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to gradually decline to near background levels of less than 400 km/second during Tuesday. Solar wind velocity is likely to persist at background levels well below 400 km/second during Wednesday and Thursday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through late Tuesday. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely during Wednesday and Thursday. We are in the winter solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely be mildly degraded by brief periods of unsettled geomagnetic during local nighttime hours through late Tuesday, then improving to mostly normal through at least late Thursday

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Thursday. X-class solar flares that may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are unlikely through Thursday.

S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that slightly increase polar absorption are unlikely through Thursday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Thursday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through at least Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through at least Thursday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through at least Thursday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through at least Thursday.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through at least Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through at least Thursday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through at least Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through at least Thursday.



There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z. Moderate improvement is possible if the solar flux index significantly exceeds 200 for several days. There is a chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 73 minutes later and sunset is 77 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

The observed solar flux index was 180 at 2200Z Tuesday.

The latest SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 123 during early Thursday.




Unreliable 6 meter F2 propagation is likely for at least the next seven days.

There is a chance of slightly more reliable 6 meter F2 propagation late next week.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be normal on Thursday and mostly normal on Friday and Saturday.



HF propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal from Thursday through Saturday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Unreliable, short duration, geographically focused global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely for at least the next week if the solar flux index remains well below 200. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km remains unreliable and unlikely.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 180 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

The latest SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 123 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

The visible solar disk has one growing medium active region and two decaying medium active regions. The remaining active regions are stable and small. There are 35 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 690 micro solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to gradually decline to near background levels of 400 km/second or less during Thursday. Solar wind velocity is likely to increase to slightly elevated levels above 400 km/second during Friday and Saturday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on Thursday. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on Friday and Saturday. We are in the winter solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely be mostly normal on Thursday, then mildly degraded by brief periods of unsettled geomagnetic during local nighttime hours on Friday and Saturday.


Solar wind velocity is likely to gradually decline to near background levels of 400 km/second or less during Thursday. Solar wind velocity is likely to increase to slightly elevated levels above 400 km/second during Friday and Saturday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on Thursday. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on Friday and Saturday. We are in the winter solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely be mostly normal on Thursday, then mildly degraded by brief periods of unsettled geomagnetic during local nighttime hours on Friday and Saturday.


S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that slightly increase polar absorption are unlikely through Saturday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be normal on Thursday, mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal from Thursday through Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday and mostly normal on Friday and Saturday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday and mostly normal on Friday and Saturday.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday, and mostly normal on Friday and Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Thursday and Friday and mostly normal on Saturday



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday and mostly normal on Friday and Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Thursday and Friday and mostly normal on Saturday



There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z. Moderate improvement is possible if the solar flux index significantly exceeds 200 for several days. There is a chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 75 minutes later and sunset is 77 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

The Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 178 at 2200Z Sunday.

The latest SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 134 during early Monday.




Unreliable 6 meter F2 propagation is likely for at least the next seven days.

There is a chance of slightly improved 6 meter F2 propagation late next week.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal from Monday through Wednesday.



HF propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal from Monday through Wednesday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Unreliable, short duration, geographically focused global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely for at least the next week if the solar flux index remains well below 200. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km remains unreliable and unlikely.


The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 178 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.

The latest SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 134 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.

The visible solar disk has three growing medium active regions, one stable medium active region and two small active regions. There are 43 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 870 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain at slightly elevated levels above 400 km/second from Monday through Wednesday.



Mostly geomagnetic conditions with brief unsettled intervals are likely from Monday through Wednesday. We are in the winter solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Monday through Wednesday.


There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth during Monday. X-class solar flares that may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are unlikely from Monday through Wednesday.

S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that slightly increase polar absorption are unlikely from Monday through Wednesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal from Monday through Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal from Monday through Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal from Monday through Wednesday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Monday through Wednesday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Monday through Wednesday.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Monday through Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal from Monday through Wednesday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Monday through Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal from Monday through Wednesday.



There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z. here is a chance of mild improvement if the solar flux index significantly exceeds 200 for several days. There is a chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 77 minutes later and sunset is 77 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 158.

The early Friday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 114.



6 meter F2 propagation is likely to remain unreliable for at least the next six weeks.

There is little chance of improved 6 meter F2 propagation until one or more large sunspots emerge.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal from Friday through at least Sunday.

Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia on 80 through 10 meters is likely to be mostly normal from Friday through at least Sunday.



HF propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal from Friday through at least Sunday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to remain unreliable, short duration and geographically focused for at least the next six weeks or until one or more large sunspots emerge. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km remains unreliable but could occur without warning for at least the next three weeks.


The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 158 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday.

The early Friday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 114 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday.

The visible solar disk has one growing medium active region, one stable medium active region and three small active regions. There are 41 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 610 micro solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be slightly elevated at about 400 km/second from Friday through Sunday due to mild coronal hole high speed stream effects.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely from Friday through Sunday due to mild coronal hole high speed stream effects. We are in the winter solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with mild degradation during local nighttime hours from Friday through Sunday.


There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth during Friday. X-class solar flares that can cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are unlikely from Friday through Sunday.

S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that slightly increase absorption of propagation crossing the polar region are likely from Friday through Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal from Friday through Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal from Friday through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal from Friday through Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Friday through Sunday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Friday through Sunday.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Friday through Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal from Friday through Sunday from about 1200Z to 1400Z.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Friday through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal from Friday through Sunday from about 1200Z to 1400Z.



There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z. There is a chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at:


Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 81 minutes later and sunset is 77 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 175.

The early Monday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 109.



6 meter F2 propagation is likely to remain unreliable for at least the next six weeks.

There is little chance of improved 6 meter F2 propagation until one or more large sunspots emerge.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday,

mildly degraded during local nighttime hours on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.



Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia on 80 through 10 meters

is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours on Tuesday

and mostly normal on Wednesday.

.

HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal on Monday

mostly normal on Tuesday and normal on Wednesday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal from Monday through at least Wednesday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to remain unreliable, short duration and geographically focused for at least the next six weeks or until one or more large sunspots emerge. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km remains unreliable but could occur without warning for the next three weeks.


The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 175 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.

The early Monday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 109 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.

The visible solar disk has one decaying medium active region and five small active regions. There are 31 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 760 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be mildly elevated to about 400 km/second on Monday, further elevated to above 400 km/second on Tuesday then gradually declining to nominal levels below 400 km/second on Wednesday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through early Tuesday. Mostly unsettled with periods of active geomagnetic conditions with a chance of minor geomagnetic storms is likely on Tuesday. We are in the solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.


There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth during Monday. X-class solar flares that can cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are unlikely from Monday through Wednesday

S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that slightly increase absorption of propagation crossing the polar region are likely from Monday through Wednesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal from Monday through Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, mildly degraded on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, mildly degraded on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to mostly normal on Monday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal from Monday through Wednesday from about 1200Z to 1400Z.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal from Monday through Wednesday from about 1200Z to 1400Z.



There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z. There is a chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 84 minutes later and sunset is 77 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 170.

The early Tuesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 122.



6 meter F2 propagation is likely to remain unreliable for at least the next six weeks.

There is little chance of improved 6 meter F2 propagation until one or more large sunspots emerge.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be moderately degraded on Tuesday,

mildly degraded during local nighttime hours on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday.



Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia on

80 through 10 meters is likely to be moderately degraded on Tuesday,

mildly degraded during local nighttime hours on Wednesday and mostly normal

on Thursday.

.

HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded on Tuesday

mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to remain unreliable, short duration and geographically focused for at least the next six weeks or until one or more large sunspots emerge. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km remains unreliable but could occur without warning during the next three weeks.


The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 170 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday.

The early Tuesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 122 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday.

The visible solar disk has one growing medium active region and three small active regions. There are 40 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 750 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be mildly elevated to about 400 km/second on Tuesday, declining slightly below 400 km/second on Wednesday then further declining to nominal levels well below 400 km/second on Thursday.



Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions with periods of active conditions are likely on Tuesday. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on Wednesday. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on Thursday. We are in the solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during Tuesday local nighttime hours, improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday.

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth from Tuesday through Thursday. X-class solar flares that can cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are unlikely from Tuesday through Thursday.

S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that slightly increase absorption of propagation crossing the polar region are not likely from Tuesday through Thursday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Tuesday, mildly degraded on Wednesday and mostly normal normal on Thursday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Tuesday, mildly degraded on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, mildly degraded on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded on Tuesday, mildly degraded on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded on Tuesday, mildly degraded on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded on Tuesday, mildly degraded on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be moderately degraded on Tuesday, mildly degraded on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be moderately degraded on Tuesday, mildly degraded on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday.



There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z. There is a chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 85 minutes later and sunset is 77 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 174. The early Thursday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 154.



6 meter F2 propagation is likely to remain unreliable for at least the next six weeks. There is little chance of improved 6 meter F2 propagation until one or more large sunspots emerge.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be slightly degraded on Thursday, mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday.



Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia on 80 through 10 meters is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, improving to normal on Friday and Saturday.



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday improving to normal on Friday and Saturday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to remain unreliable, short duration and geographically focused for at least the next six weeks or until one or more large sunspots emerge. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km remains unreliable but could occur without warning during the next three weeks.


The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 174 and is likely to gradually rise through at least Saturday

The early Thursday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 154 and is likely to gradually rise through at least Saturday.

The visible solar disk has three growing medium active regions, one decaying medium active region, and two small active regions. There are 22 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 860 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be mildly elevated to about 400 km/second or during Thursday then gradually declining to background levels well below 400 km/second during Friday and Saturday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on Thursday. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on Friday and Saturday. We are in the solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be slightly degraded during Thursday local nighttime hours, improving to mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday.


There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth from Thursday through Saturday. X-class solar flares that can cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are unlikely from Thursday through Saturday.

S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that slightly increase absorption of propagation crossing the polar region are not likely from Thursday through Saturday.


160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday improving to normal on Friday and Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, improving to normal on Friday and Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Thursday, mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be slightly degraded on Thursday, mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be slightly degraded on Thursday, mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be slightly degraded on Thursday, mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be slightly degraded on Thursday, mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be slightly degraded on Thursday, mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be slightly degraded on Thursday, mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday.



There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z. There is a chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 87 minutes later and sunset is 77 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

The 2200Z Tuesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 246.

he early Thursday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 232.



6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be more frequent and more reliable

through late December due to three large sunspots on the visible disk.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mildly degraded

during local nighttime hours from midday Thursday through early Friday,

improving to mostly normal from before midday Friday through late Saturday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal

on Thursday improving to normal on Friday and Saturday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal

on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia

on 80 through 10 meters is likely to be mildly degraded on Thursday,

improving to mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday.







This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be more frequent and more reliable, with mostly short duration and geographically focused propagation through late December due to three large sunspots on the visible disk . 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km remains infrequent and unreliable but could occur without warning during the next two weeks.

The 2200Z Tuesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 246 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

The early Thursday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 232 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, one stable large active region, one decaying large active region, one growing medium active region, two stable medium active regions and five small active regions. There are 108 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1950 micro-solar hemispheres (about 12 times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be elevated well above 400 km/second from about midday Thursday through early Friday, gradually declining to about 400 km/second or less from midday Friday through late Saturday.



Unsettled to minor geomagnetic storm conditions are likely from about midday Thursday through early Friday. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely from before midday Friday through early Saturday improving to mostly quiet from before midday through late Saturday. We are in the solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be mildly disturbed during local nighttime hours from midday Thursday through early Friday improving to mostly normal from before midday Friday through late Saturday.


There is a slight chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may slightly increase absorption of HF propagation crossing the polar regions on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

M-class solar flares are likely to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.




160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mildly disturbed on Thursday and mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday and Friday and normal on Saturday,


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly disturbed on Thursday, improving to mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly disturbed on Thursday, improving to mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly disturbed on Thursday, improving to mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly disturbed on Thursday, improving to mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday,



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to mildly disturbed on Thursday, improving to mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly disturbed on Thursday, improving to mostly normal on Friday and normal on Saturday,



There is a chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z and from the more westerly US states to the South Pacific from about 2100Z to 0200Z. There is a chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is two minutes later and sunset is three minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Some of the best HF propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely to continue through

about midday Tuesday but coming to an end by midday Tuesday or earlier.



The 2200Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 252.

The early Monday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 266.



6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be more frequent and more reliable

through about midday Tuesday due to a large sunspot on the visible disk,

but coming to an end by midday Tuesday or earlier.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal

through about midday Tuesday, moderately degraded after about midday Tuesday

then gradually improving to mostly normal by about midday Wednesday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal through

about midday Tuesday, becoming mildly degraded by about midday Tuesday,

then gradually improving to mostly normal by about midday Wednesday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia

on 80 through 10 meters is likely to be normal through about midday Tuesday

, becoming mildly degraded by about midday Tuesday and gradually improving

to mostly normal by about midday Wednesday.







This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be more frequent and more reliable, with mostly short duration and geographically focused propagation through about midday Tuesday due to a large sunspot on the visible disk, but coming to an end by about midday Tuesday due to geomagnetic storm conditions . 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km remains infrequent and unreliable but could occur without warning during the next two weeks.


The 2200Z Tuesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 252 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.

The early Monday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 266 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.

The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, two growing medium active regions, one decaying medium active region and six small active regions. There are 99 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1090 micro-solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain well below 400 km/second on Monday, increasing to above 500 km/second by about midday Tuesday then gradually declining to about 400 km/second by about midday Wednesday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through about midday Tuesday. Moderate to strong geomagnetic storm conditions are expected by midday Tuesday, gradually subsiding to quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions by midday Wednesday. We are in the solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, moderately degraded on Tuesday then gradually improving to mostly normal by about midday Wednesday.


There is a slight chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may slightly increase absorption of HF propagation crossing the polar regions on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.


M-class solar flares are likely to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Tuesday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, moderately degraded on Tuesday then gradually improving to mostly normal by on Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, mildly to moderately degraded on Tuesday then gradually improving on Wednesday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, moderately degraded on Tuesday then gradually improving to mostly normal by about midday Wednesday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through about midday Tuesday, becoming moderately degraded by about midday Tuesday then gradually improving to mostly normal by about midday Wednesday.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through about midday Tuesday, becoming moderately degraded by about midday Tuesday then gradually improving to mostly normal by about midday Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal through about midday Tuesday, mildly degraded after about midday Tuesday then gradually improving to mostly normal by about midday Wednesday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through about midday Tuesday, becoming moderately degraded by about midday Tuesday then gradually improving to mostly normal by about midday Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal through about midday Tuesday, mildly degraded after about midday Tuesday then gradually improving to mostly normal by about midday Wednesday.



There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z Monday and Tuesday and from the more westerly US states to the South Pacific from about 2100Z to 0200Z Monday. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is three minutes later and sunset is six minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.