Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded until late Tuesday. Periods of mild to moderate degradation are likely from late Tuesday through late Wednesday.
Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .
All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely for just a few days in late in October and early November but only if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days . 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states in late in October and early November. More northerly mid-latitude locations need an additional above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop or an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 193 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 193 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 132 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.
The visible solar disk has two decaying large active regions, one growing medium active region, one decaying medium active region and one decaying small active region. The are 38 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area is 1270 micro solar hemispheres (about eight times the surface area of the Earth).
Solar wind speed is likely to be mostly less than 400 km/second during until late Tuesday, increasing to mostly 500 km/second or more from late Tuesday during until late Wednesday.
We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days occur about twice as often as during the solstice seasons . Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected during Monday. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely until late Tuesday. Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely during most of Wednesday with a chance of a brief weak geomagnetic storm early Wednesday.
Isolated M-class solar flares are likely to cause occasional periods of a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Wednesday.
There is a slight chance that X1-class or stronger solar flares may cause strong to severe radio blackouts of several hours hour duration on propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Wednesday
S1 class solar energetic particle radiation storms may cause minor degradation of propagation crossing the northern polar region from Monday through Wednesday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be moderately to be normal through Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2300Z is likely to be mildly degraded through Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and Tuesday and mildly degraded during Wednesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded until late Tuesday. Mild to moderate degradation is likely from late Tuesday through late Wednesday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded until late Tuesday. Mild to moderate degradation is likely from late Tuesday through late Wednesday.
. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded until late Tuesday. Mild to moderate degradation is likely from late Tuesday through late Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal during Monday and Tuesday, and mildly degraded during Wednesday.
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mildly degraded until late Tuesday. Mild to moderate degradation is likely from late Tuesday through late Wednesday. . 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal during Monday and Tuesday, and mildly degraded during Wednesday
There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via brief intervals of above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 21 minutes later and sunset is 34 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.
Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .
All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely for just a few days in late in October and early November but only if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days . 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states in late in October and early November. More northerly mid-latitude locations need an additional above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop or an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 193 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 193 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 132 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.
The visible solar disk has two decaying large active regions, one growing medium active region, one decaying medium active region and one decaying small active region. The are 38 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area is 1270 micro solar hemispheres (about eight times the surface area of the Earth).
Solar wind speed is likely to be mostly less than 400 km/second during until late Tuesday, increasing to mostly 500 km/second or more from late Tuesday during until late Wednesday.
We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days occur about twice as often as during the solstice seasons . Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected during Monday. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely until late Tuesday. Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely during most of Wednesday with a chance of a brief weak geomagnetic storm early Wednesday.
Isolated M-class solar flares are likely to cause occasional periods of a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Wednesday.
There is a slight chance that X1-class or stronger solar flares may cause strong to severe radio blackouts of several hours hour duration on propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Wednesday
S1 class solar energetic particle radiation storms may cause minor degradation of propagation crossing the northern polar region from Monday through Wednesday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be moderately to be normal through Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2300Z is likely to be mildly degraded through Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and Tuesday and mildly degraded during Wednesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded until late Tuesday. Mild to moderate degradation is likely from late Tuesday through late Wednesday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded until late Tuesday. Mild to moderate degradation is likely from late Tuesday through late Wednesday.
. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded until late Tuesday. Mild to moderate degradation is likely from late Tuesday through late Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal during Monday and Tuesday, and mildly degraded during Wednesday.
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mildly degraded until late Tuesday. Mild to moderate degradation is likely from late Tuesday through late Wednesday. . 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal during Monday and Tuesday, and mildly degraded during Wednesday
There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via brief intervals of above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 21 minutes later and sunset is 34 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.
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