HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or
both ends of propagation paths during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal
during Friday, and normal on Saturday and Sunday.
HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal
during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
The 2300Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 147.
The early Friday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 74.
There is a chance of 6 meter TEP propagation from the southern tier of
U.S. states to South America. There is a slight chance of oblique TEP
propagation to the South Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa through mid-May.
There is a chance that unreliable geographically focused sporadic-E
propagation may briefly couple some lucky mid-latitude stations into
TEP and oblique-TEP propagation through mid-May.
40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to
south and southeast east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during
Friday and normal on Saturday and Sunday.
This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.
All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The visible solar disk has one decaying very large active region, one stable medium region, one decaying medium region and two small regions. There are 54 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1440 micro-solar hemispheres (approximately nine times the surface area of the Earth).
Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly below 500 km/second until late Friday increasing to above 500 km/second from late Friday through early Saturday, then declining below 500 km/second from early Saturday through late Sunday.
Active geomagnetic conditions are likely from Friday through early Saturday with likely brief minor geomagnetic storm conditions late Friday. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are likely from early Saturday through late Sunday
There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday, improving to normal during Saturday and Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday, normal on Saturday and Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or both ends of propagation paths during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or both ends of propagation paths during Friday, Saturday and Sunday,
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or both ends of propagation paths during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday,
12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or both ends of propagation paths during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
There is a very slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 72 minutes earlier and sunset is 50 minutes later than it was on March 20th.
Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.
mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or
both ends of propagation paths during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal
during Friday, and normal on Saturday and Sunday.
HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal
during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
The 2300Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 147.
The early Friday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 74.
There is a chance of 6 meter TEP propagation from the southern tier of
U.S. states to South America. There is a slight chance of oblique TEP
propagation to the South Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa through mid-May.
There is a chance that unreliable geographically focused sporadic-E
propagation may briefly couple some lucky mid-latitude stations into
TEP and oblique-TEP propagation through mid-May.
40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to
south and southeast east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during
Friday and normal on Saturday and Sunday.
This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.
All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The visible solar disk has one decaying very large active region, one stable medium region, one decaying medium region and two small regions. There are 54 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1440 micro-solar hemispheres (approximately nine times the surface area of the Earth).
Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly below 500 km/second until late Friday increasing to above 500 km/second from late Friday through early Saturday, then declining below 500 km/second from early Saturday through late Sunday.
Active geomagnetic conditions are likely from Friday through early Saturday with likely brief minor geomagnetic storm conditions late Friday. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are likely from early Saturday through late Sunday
There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday, improving to normal during Saturday and Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday, normal on Saturday and Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or both ends of propagation paths during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or both ends of propagation paths during Friday, Saturday and Sunday,
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or both ends of propagation paths during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday,
12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or both ends of propagation paths during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
There is a very slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 72 minutes earlier and sunset is 50 minutes later than it was on March 20th.
Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.
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