Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance that propagation crossing high latitudes may be mildly degraded during Saturday December 23rd by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
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My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 88 minutes later and sunset is 76 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Saturday.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 195 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 160 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday. The solar visible disk has one very large, one large, five medium and two tiny active regions containing 43 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1285 micro-hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to return to a slow solar wind regime at 400 km/second or less through late Friday due to waning coronal hole high speed stream effects. Coronal hole high speed stream effects are likely to weakly enhance the solar wind through midday Saturday.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled through Thursday improving to mostly quiet on Friday. Coronal hole high speed stream effects are likely to produce unsettled to active geomagnetic activity through midday Saturday, declining to quiet to unsettled after midday Saturday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Saturday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday.
We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons and geomagnetically quiet periods are much more frequent than during the equinox seasons.
There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL from about 2200-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
__________________________________________________ _____________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 88 minutes later and sunset is 76 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Saturday.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 195 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 160 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday. The solar visible disk has one very large, one large, five medium and two tiny active regions containing 43 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1285 micro-hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to return to a slow solar wind regime at 400 km/second or less through late Friday due to waning coronal hole high speed stream effects. Coronal hole high speed stream effects are likely to weakly enhance the solar wind through midday Saturday.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled through Thursday improving to mostly quiet on Friday. Coronal hole high speed stream effects are likely to produce unsettled to active geomagnetic activity through midday Saturday, declining to quiet to unsettled after midday Saturday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Saturday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation on Saturday.
We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons and geomagnetically quiet periods are much more frequent than during the equinox seasons.
There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL from about 2200-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
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