Mostly normal propagation with below normal periods is likely through Wednesday but propagation crossing auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Wednesday February 14th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
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My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 211 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 116 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one very large, one large, two medium and three tiny active regions containing 83 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 910 micro-hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to be moderately elevated at about 500 km/second or more through Wednesday.
At least one mild to moderate geomagnetic storm is likely before midday Tuesday and again early Wednesday due to the potential for multiple CME arrivals. Otherwise, mostly active geomagnetic conditions are likely from early Tuesday through midday Wednesday, then improving to mostly unsettled through late Wednesday.
Minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares are expected through Wednesday. There is a chance of isolated strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Wednesday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2230Z is likely to be mildly degraded through Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be mostly below normal through Wednesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Wednesday, then improving to mildly degraded through late Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Wednesday, then improving to mildly degraded through late Wednesday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Wednesday, then improving to mildly degraded through late Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday and mildly degraded on Wednesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Wednesday, then improving to mildly degraded through late Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday and mildly degraded on Wednesday.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 21 minutes earlier and sunset is 54 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
SWPC’s four day solar wind prediction is updated about every five days at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ws...ind-prediction
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
__________________________________________________ _____________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 211 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 116 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one very large, one large, two medium and three tiny active regions containing 83 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 910 micro-hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to be moderately elevated at about 500 km/second or more through Wednesday.
At least one mild to moderate geomagnetic storm is likely before midday Tuesday and again early Wednesday due to the potential for multiple CME arrivals. Otherwise, mostly active geomagnetic conditions are likely from early Tuesday through midday Wednesday, then improving to mostly unsettled through late Wednesday.
Minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares are expected through Wednesday. There is a chance of isolated strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Wednesday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2230Z is likely to be mildly degraded through Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be mostly below normal through Wednesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Wednesday, then improving to mildly degraded through late Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Wednesday, then improving to mildly degraded through late Wednesday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Wednesday, then improving to mildly degraded through late Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday and mildly degraded on Wednesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Wednesday, then improving to mildly degraded through late Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday and mildly degraded on Wednesday.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 21 minutes earlier and sunset is 54 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
SWPC’s four day solar wind prediction is updated about every five days at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ws...ind-prediction
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
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