Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours from late Thursday through early Friday.
__________________________________________________ _____________
The Thursday May 2nd W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 136 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 104 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.
www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one large and five small active regions containing 44 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 640 micro solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated at about 450 km/second through Friday.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled to active through Friday. There is a chance of a minor geomagnetic storm from late Thursday through early Friday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
Minor to moderate radio blackouts are likely on Thursday declining to a chance on Friday caused by M-class solar flares affecting propagation crossing the sunlit side of the Earth. There is a slight chance of strong radio blackouts through Friday caused by X-class solar flares affecting propagation crossing the sunlit side of the Earth.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts
Solar radiation storms degrading HF propagation crossing polar regions are not expected through Friday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be mildly degraded after 0000Z Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal on Thursday with possible mild degradations on Friday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours from late Thursday to early Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours from late Thursday until early Friday. Propagation crossing northern high latitude regions is enhanced by the very brief hours of darkness in the northern high latitude F2 region from May through July.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours from late Thursday to early Friday. Propagation crossing northern high latitude regions is enhanced by the very brief hours of darkness in the northern high latitude F2 region from May through July. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours from late Thursday to early Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen atoms available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0200Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 63 minutes earlier and sunset is 44 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s Space Weather News is published on Wednesdays at
www.patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.com
__________________________________________________ _____________
The Thursday May 2nd W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 136 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 104 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.
www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one large and five small active regions containing 44 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 640 micro solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated at about 450 km/second through Friday.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled to active through Friday. There is a chance of a minor geomagnetic storm from late Thursday through early Friday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
Minor to moderate radio blackouts are likely on Thursday declining to a chance on Friday caused by M-class solar flares affecting propagation crossing the sunlit side of the Earth. There is a slight chance of strong radio blackouts through Friday caused by X-class solar flares affecting propagation crossing the sunlit side of the Earth.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts
Solar radiation storms degrading HF propagation crossing polar regions are not expected through Friday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be mildly degraded after 0000Z Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal on Thursday with possible mild degradations on Friday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours from late Thursday to early Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours from late Thursday until early Friday. Propagation crossing northern high latitude regions is enhanced by the very brief hours of darkness in the northern high latitude F2 region from May through July.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours from late Thursday to early Friday. Propagation crossing northern high latitude regions is enhanced by the very brief hours of darkness in the northern high latitude F2 region from May through July. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours from late Thursday to early Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen atoms available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0200Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 63 minutes earlier and sunset is 44 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s Space Weather News is published on Wednesdays at
www.patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.com
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