W3LPL Propagation forecast

[4L5A]

Geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely from June through mid-July compared to their more frequent occurrence during the equinox seasons.



We are in the prime northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season from June through mid-to-late July.

Solar wind speed is likely to remain slightly elevated at about 450 km/second or more through midday Thursday, declining to about 400 km/second or less through Friday, increasing to 450 km/second or more early Saturday and gradually declining to 450 km/second after midday Saturday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic activity is likely on Thursday, degrading to unsettled to active after midday Friday then improving to quiet to unsettled by midday Saturday.
M-class solar flares are likely to cause minor to moderate radio blackouts through Saturday. There is a chance that isolated strong solar flares caused by X-Class solar flares may cause moderate radio blackouts through Saturday. There is a slight chance that S1-Class weak solar radiation storms may cause isolated minor impacts on propagation crossing polar regions through Saturday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be normal on Friday and mostly normal on Saturday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. Midday 20 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday .



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday .



Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen atoms available for ionizing the F2 region during daytime hours, degrading 10 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from early June through late September and degrading 12 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from mid-June through mid-September.



There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1200-2000Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

[4L5A]

Geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely from June through mid-July compared to their more frequent occurrence during the equinox seasons.



We are in the prime northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season from June through mid-to-late July.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 206 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.


The visible solar disk has two very large, one large, two small and one very small active regions containing 111 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 2370 micro solar hemispheres (about 14 times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to remain slightly elevated at about 450 km/second through midday Friday, increasing to 450 km/second or more through early Saturday and gradually declining to 450 km/second from midday Saturday through Sunday.



Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic activity is likely on Friday, degrading to unsettled to active through early Saturday then improving to mostly quiet from midday Saturday through Sunday


M-class solar flares are likely to cause minor to moderate radio blackouts through Sunday. There is a chance that isolated strong solar flares caused by X-Class solar flares may cause moderate radio blackouts through Sunday.

There is a slight chance that S1-Class weak solar radiation storms may cause isolated minor impacts on propagation crossing polar regions through Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. Midday 20 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday .



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday .



Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen atoms available for ionizing the F2 region during daytime hours, degrading 10 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from early June through late September and degrading 12 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from mid-June through mid-September.



There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1200-2000Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

[4L5A]

Geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely from June through mid-July compared to their more frequent occurrence during the equinox seasons.



We are in the prime northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season from June through mid-to-late July.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 190 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 129 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.

The visible solar disk has one large, six medium, three small and one very small active region containing 66 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1750 micro solar hemispheres (about ten times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to nominal at about 350 km/second through Wednesday.



Quiet geomagnetic activity is likely through Wednesday.

M-class solar flares are likely to cause minor to moderate radio blackouts through Wednesday. There is a slight chance that isolated strong solar flares caused by X-Class solar flares may cause moderate radio blackouts through Wednesday.


There is a slight chance that S1-Class weak solar radiation storms may cause isolated minor impacts on propagation crossing polar regions through Wednesday.


160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Wednesday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Wednesday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. Midday 20 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Wednesday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday .



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be normal through Wednesday with possible mild degradations during local nighttime hours. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday .



Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen atoms available for ionizing the F2 region during daytime hours, degrading 10 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from early June through late September and degrading 12 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from mid-June through mid-September.



There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1100-2200Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 1 minuts later and sunset is 0 minutes later than it was on June 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely from June through mid-July compared to their more frequent occurrence during the equinox seasons.



We are in the prime northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season from June through mid-to-late July.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 194 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.


SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 117 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.

The visible solar disk has one large, five medium, two small and one very small active region containing 51 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1340 micro solar hemispheres (about eight times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to nominal at about 350 km/second or less through Thursday.



Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet through Thursday.


M-class solar flares are likely to cause minor to moderate radio blackouts through Thursday. There is a slight chance that isolated strong solar flares caused by X-Class solar flares may cause moderate radio blackouts through Thursday.

There is a slight chance that S1-Class weak solar radiation storms may cause isolated minor impacts on propagation crossing polar regions through Thursday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be normal through Thursday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Thursday with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Thursday with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours. Midday 20 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Thursday with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday .



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be normal through Thursday with with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday .



Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen atoms available for ionizing the F2 region during daytime hours, degrading 10 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from early June through late September and degrading 12 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from mid-June through mid-September.



There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1100-2200Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

[4L5A]

Geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely from June through mid-July compared to their more frequent occurrence during the equinox seasons.



We are in the prime northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season through at least mid- July.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 197 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.


SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 166 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.

The visible solar disk has four medium, three small and one very small active region containing 49 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 780 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be at near ambient levels of about 350 km/second or less through midday Friday.



Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet through midday Friday.


M-class solar flares are likely to cause minor to moderate radio blackouts through Friday. There is a slight chance that isolated strong solar flares caused by X-Class solar flares may cause moderate radio blackouts through Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be normal through Friday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal through Friday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Friday with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Friday with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours. Midday 20 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Friday with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday .



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be normal through Friday with with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday .



Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen atoms available for ionizing the F2 region during daytime hours, degrading 10 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from early June through late September and degrading 12 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere from mid-June through mid-September.



There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1100-2200Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

[4L5A]

Geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely from June through mid-July compared to their more frequent occurrence during the equinox seasons.



We are in the prime northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season through at least mid-July.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 183 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 140 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday.

The visible solar disk has five medium, three small and one very small active region containing 45 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 850 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be near ambient levels of about 350 km/second or less through midday Friday. Weak CME arrival after midday Friday is likely to increase solar wind speed to 400 km/seconds or more through early Saturday. Solar wind speed is likely to decline to about 400 km/second or less after midday Saturday.



Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet through midday Friday. Weak CME arrival after midday Friday is likely to cause unsettled to minor geomagnetic storm levels through midday Saturday. Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet after midday Saturday

M-class solar flares are likely to cause minor to moderate radio blackouts through Saturday. There is a slight chance that isolated strong solar flares caused by X-Class solar flares may cause moderate radio blackouts through Saturday.
No S-class solar radiation storms are expected through Saturday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be normal through Friday and mildly degraded on Saturday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal but mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Friday through early Saturday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal but mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Friday through early Saturday.

Midday 20 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal but mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Friday through early Saturday.

17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday .



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal but mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Friday through early Saturday

12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday .



Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen atoms available for ionizing the F2 region during daytime hours, degrading 10 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere through late September and degrading 12 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere through mid-September.



There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1100-2200Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

[4L5A]

The Friday June 28th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely from June through mid-July compared to their more frequent occurrence during the equinox seasons.



We are in the prime northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season through at least mid-July.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 183 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 168 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.

The visible solar disk has four medium, four small and two very small active region containing 46 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 820 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be near ambient levels of about 350 km/second or less through at least midday Friday. Weak CME arrivals after midday Friday are likely to increase solar wind speed to 400 km/seconds or more through early Saturday. Solar wind speed is likely to decline to about 400 km/second or less from midday Saturday through late Sunday.



Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet through at least midday Friday. Weak CME arrival after midday Friday is likely to cause unsettled to minor geomagnetic storm levels through midday Saturday. Geomagnetic activity is then likely to improve to mostly quiet through late Sunday.


M-class solar flares are likely to cause minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday. There is a slight chance that isolated strong solar flares caused by X-Class solar flares may cause moderate radio blackouts through Sunday.

No S-class solar radiation storms are expected through Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Friday and Sunday and mildly degraded on Saturday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal but mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Friday through early Saturday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday but mildly degraded from late Friday through early Saturday. Midday 20 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday but mildly degraded from late Friday through early Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Sunday .



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday but mildly degraded from late Friday through early Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Sunday .



Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen atoms available for ionizing the F2 region during daytime hours, degrading 10 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere through late September and degrading 12 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere through mid-September.



There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1100-2200Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

[4L5A]

Geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely through mid-July compared to their more frequent occurrence during the equinox seasons.



We are in the prime northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season through mid-July.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 176 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.


SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 213 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.

The visible solar disk has three medium, seven small and five very small active region containing 49 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1150 micro solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be elevated at about 500 km/second through least Wednesday due to glancing blows by multiple CMEs.



Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled to active on Monday slightly improving to mostly quiet to unsettled through Wednesday. There is a slight chance of G1 minor geomagnetic storm activity through Wednesday.


There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Wednesday.

No S-class solar radiation storms are expected through Wednesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation during local nighttime hours through Wednesday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation during local nighttime hours through Wednesday. Midday 20 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation during local nighttime hours through Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday .



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation during local nighttime hours through Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday .



Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen atoms available for ionizing the F2 region during daytime hours, degrading 12 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere through mid- September and degrading 10 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere through late-September.



There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1100-2200Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP,
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is three minutes later and sunset is one minute later than it was on June 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely through mid-July compared to their more frequent occurrence during the equinox seasons.

We are in the prime northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season through mid-July.

The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 169 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 195 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.

The visible solar disk has two medium, eight small and two very small active region containing 62 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 880 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels elevated at about 400 km/second through Monday, then slightly increasing to about 500 km/second through Thursday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled on Tuesday slightly degrading to mostly unsettled to active through Wednesday and mostly quiet to active through Thursday. There is a slight chance of G1 minor geomagnetic storm activity through Thursday.

M-class solar flares are likely to cause minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Thursday.

No S-class solar radiation storms are expected through Wednesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through Thursday, Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation during local nighttime hours through Thursday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation during local nighttime hours through Thursday. Midday 20 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation during local nighttime hours through Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation during local nighttime hours through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.

Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blow from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reducing the volume of neutral oxygen atoms available for ionizing the F2 region during daytime hours, degrading 12 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere through mid-September and degrading 10 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere through late-September.

There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1100-2200Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is four minutes later and sunset is one minute later than it was on June 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Geomagnetic storms and active geomagnetic conditions are about half as likely through mid-July compared to their more frequent occurrence during the equinox seasons.



We are in the prime northern hemisphere 6 meter sporadic-E season through mid-July.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 165 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 196 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.

The visible solar disk has two medium, four small and six very small active region containing 72 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 690 micro solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels of less than 400 km/second through midday Wednesday, increasing to about 450 km/second through early Thursday due to coronal mass ejection influence, returning to near background levels of less than 400 km/second by early Friday.



Geomagnetic activity is likely to be unsettled to active with a chance of a geomagnetic storm late Wednesday. Lingering geomagnetic storm influence is likely to continue through early Thursday. Mostly quiet geomagnetic activity is likely from midday Thursday through late Friday.

M-class solar flares are likely to cause minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Friday.

No S-class solar radiation storms are expected through Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be moderately degraded on Thursday and mildly degraded on Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal but moderately degraded during local nighttime hours from late Wednesday through early Thursday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal but moderately degraded during local nighttime hours from late Wednesday through early Thursday. Midday 20 meter long distance propagation from June through September in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal but moderately degraded during local nighttime hours from late Wednesday through early Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday .



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal but moderately degraded during local nighttime hours from late Wednesday through early Thursday.



Thermally driven high velocity thermospheric winds at the altitude of the F2 region blow from the high temperature dayside hemisphere to the low temperature nightside hemisphere reducing the volume of neutral atomic oxygen available for ionizing the F2 region during daytime hours, lowering the MUF of 12 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere through mid-September and lowering the MUF of 10 meter F2 propagation crossing the northern hemisphere through late-September.



There is a slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation from about 1100-2200Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, VP6, ZL and ZL7) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is four minutes later and sunset is one minute later than it was on June 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.