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    HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday then normal through Thursday. HF propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday, mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday
    __________________________________________________ _____________

    The March 26th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

    The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 190 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday.

    SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 166 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday.
    https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

    The visible solar disk has one very large, two large, three small and two very small active regions containing 83 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1540 micro solar hemispheres (about eight times the surface area of the Earth).
    http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

    Solar wind speed is likely to steadily decline below 600 km/second on Tuesday, below 500 km/second by early Wednesday and below 400 km/second by late Wednesday due to steadily waning CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects.

    Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled to active through late Tuesday, quiet to unsettled through early Wednesday, mostly quiet through late Wednesday and quiet during Thursday.

    We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days and auroras are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
    earthsky.org/sun/aurora-season-auroras-equinox-connection

    Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are expected through Thursday. There is a chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Thursday.

    There is a chance that highly energetic charged particles radiating from very large solar region 3615 may produce solar radiation storms causing mostly below normal propagation crossing polar regions through Tuesday and a slight risk of below normal propagation crossing polar regions through Thursday.

    160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday then improving to normal through Thursday.

    40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday then improving to normal on Wednesday and Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday improving to normal on Wednesday and Thursday.

    30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday, improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

    20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday, improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday.

    17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday, improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, improving to normal on Wednesday and Thursday.

    12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to mostly normal on Tuesday, improving to normal on Wednesday and Thursday.

    There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

    Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

    Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is ten minutes earlier and sunset is six minutes later than it was on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.

    The EarthSky Sun News is published daily at
    earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates

    Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
    https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

    SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

    The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2100 and 2300Z at:
    http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

    SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

    The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422

    The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
    https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated

    The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
    https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated

    N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
    www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

    KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
    https://prop.kc2g.com

    SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

    SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

    GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
    https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index

    SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
    www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

    The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
    www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

    Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
    http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
    73 Al 4L5A

    Comment

    •  

      HF Propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal through Friday while propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday, normal on Thursday and mostly normal on Friday.
      __________________________________________________ _____________

      The March 27th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

      The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 177 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Friday.
      https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-emissions

      SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 142 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday.
      https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

      The visible solar disk has one very large, one large, two small and four very small active regions containing 69 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1480 micro solar hemispheres (about eight times the surface area of the Earth).
      https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/sunspotssolar-cycle

      Solar wind speed is likely to decline to less than 500 km/second before midday Wednesday and less than 400 km/second on Thursday and Friday as CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects wane.
      https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind

      Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet on Wednesday, quiet on Thursday and mostly quiet on Friday as CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects wane.
      https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
      https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes

      We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days and auroras are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
      earthsky.org/sun/aurora-season-auroras-equinox-connection

      Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are expected through Thursday. There is a chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Thursday.
      https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts

      There is a chance that minor solar radiation storms accelerated from very large solar region 3615 by solar flares and their associated CMEs may cause mostly below normal propagation crossing polar regions through Friday.
      https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm

      160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.

      40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2330Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday and Thursday and mostly normal on Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

      30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday and Thursday and mostly normal on Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

      20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday and Thursday and mostly normal on Friday.

      17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday and Thursday and mostly normal on Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

      12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to normal on Wednesday and Thursday and mostly normal on Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to mostly normal through Friday.

      There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

      Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

      Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 12 minutes earlier and sunset is 7 minutes later than they were on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.

      The EarthSky Sun News is published daily at
      earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates

      Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
      https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

      SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

      The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2100 and 2300Z at:
      http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

      SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

      The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422

      The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
      https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
      The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
      https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated

      N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
      www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

      KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
      https://prop.kc2g.com

      SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
      http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

      SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

      GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
      https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index

      SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
      www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

      The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
      www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

      Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
      http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
      73 Al 4L5A

      Comment

      •  

        HF Propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal through Saturday while propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be normal on Thursday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Saturday.
        __________________________________________________ _____________

        The March 28th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

        The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 174 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Friday.
        https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-emissions

        SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 111 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Friday.
        https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

        The visible solar disk has one very large, one large, one small and three very small active regions containing 54 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1270 micro solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).
        https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/sunspotssolar-cycle

        Solar wind speed is likely to steadily decline to less than 500 km/second on Thursday and to background levels less than 400 km/second on Friday and Saturday as CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects continue to wane.
        https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind

        Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet on Thursday with isolated unsettled intervals on Friday and Saturday due to minor coronal hole high speed stream effects.
        https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
        https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes

        We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days and auroras are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
        earthsky.org/sun/aurora-season-auroras-equinox-connection

        Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are expected through Friday. There is a chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Friday.
        https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts

        There is a chance that minor solar radiation storms accelerated from very large solar region 3615 by solar flares and their associated CMEs may cause mostly below normal propagation crossing polar regions through Saturday.
        https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm

        160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Saturday.

        40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2330Z is likely to be normal on Thursday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.

        30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Saturday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

        20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Saturday.

        17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.

        12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to normal on Thursday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to normal through Saturday.

        There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

        Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

        Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 13 minutes earlier and sunset is 8 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.

        The EarthSky Sun News is published daily at
        earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates

        Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
        https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

        SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

        The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
        http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

        SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

        The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422

        The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
        https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated

        The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
        https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated

        N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
        www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

        KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
        https://prop.kc2g.com

        SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
        http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

        SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

        GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
        https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index

        SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
        www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

        The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
        www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

        Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
        http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
        73 Al 4L5A

        Comment

        •  

          HF Propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal through Sunday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with periods of minor degradation mostly during local nighttime hours through Sunday.
          __________________________________________________ _____________

          The March 29th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

          The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 171 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged on Friday and Saturday declining to about 155 on Sunday.
          https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-emissions

          SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 100 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged on Friday and Saturday declining to about 90 on Sunday.
          https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

          The visible solar disk has one very large, two small and two very small active regions containing 51 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1150 micro solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).
          https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/sunspotssolar-cycle

          Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels at about 400 km/second or less with periods of weak enhancement through Sunday.
          https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind

          Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet with isolated unsettled intervals through Sunday.
          https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
          https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes

          We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days and auroras are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
          earthsky.org/sun/aurora-season-auroras-equinox-connection

          Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are expected on Friday and Saturday. There is a chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares on Friday and Saturday,
          https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts

          There is a chance that minor solar radiation storms accelerated from very large solar region 3615 by solar flares and their associated CMEs may cause mostly below normal propagation crossing polar regions on Friday and Saturday.
          https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm

          160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

          40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2330Z is likely to be normal through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.

          30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

          20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

          17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Friday and Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday.

          12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Friday and Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday.

          There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

          Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

          Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 16 minutes earlier and sunset is 10 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.

          The EarthSky Sun News is published daily at
          earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates

          Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
          https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

          SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

          The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
          http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

          SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

          The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422

          The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
          https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated

          The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
          https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated

          N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
          www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

          KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
          https://prop.kc2g.com

          SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
          http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

          SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

          GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
          https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index

          SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
          www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

          The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
          www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

          Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
          http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
          73 Al 4L5A

          Comment

          •  

            HF Propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal through Thursday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation during local nighttime hours late Thursday.
            __________________________________________________ _____________

            The April 2nd W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.


            The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 119 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday.
            www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-4-en.php

            SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 63 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday.
            https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

            The visible solar disk has one small and three very small active regions containing ten sunspots with a total sunspot area of 112 micro solar hemispheres (about 2/3 the surface area of the Earth).
            www.solarham.net/regions.htm


            Solar wind speed is likely to be moderately enhanced at up to about 500 km/second due to coronal hole high speed stream effects through Thursday.
            https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind

            Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled with a chance of active geomagnetic activity due to coronal hole high speed stream effects through Thursday. There is a slight chance of a minor geomagnetic storm late Thursday.
            https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections
            https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes

            We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days and auroras are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
            earthsky.org/sun/aurora-season-auroras-equinox-connection

            There is a slight chance of weak or minor radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth caused by M-class solar flares through Thursday. No strong radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares are likely through Thursday.
            https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-flares-radio-blackouts

            No solar radiation storms affecting radio propagation crossing polar regions are likely through Thursday.
            https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-radiation-storm

            160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.

            40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2330Z is likely to be normal on Tuesday degrading to mostly normal on Wednesday with a chance of mild degradation on Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostlynormal through Thursday.

            30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation with a chance of minor degradation during local nighttime hours late Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

            20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation during local nighttime hours late Thursday.


            17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation during local nighttime hours late Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

            12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation during local nighttime hours late Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

            There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

            Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.


            Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 20 minutes earlier and sunset is 13 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.

            73 Al 4L5A

            Comment

            •  

              HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal through Friday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation during local nighttime hours late Thursday through early Friday.
              __________________________________________________ _____________

              The April 3rd W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

              The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 119 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Friday.
              http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php

              SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 49 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Friday.
              https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

              The visible solar disk has one small and two very small active regions containing five sunspots with a total sunspot area of 76 micro solar hemispheres (about half of the surface area of the Earth).
              www.solarham.net/regions.htm

              Solar wind speed is likely to be moderately enhanced at up to about 500 km/second due to coronal hole high speed stream effects from late Wednesday through Friday.
              https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind

              Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled with a chance of active geomagnetic conditions from late Wednesday through early Friday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects through Friday. There is a chance of a minor geomagnetic storm from late Thursday through early Friday.
              https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
              https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes

              We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days and auroras are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
              earthsky.org/sun/aurora-season-auroras-equinox-connection

              There is a slight chance of weak or minor radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth caused by M-class solar flares through Friday. No strong radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares are likely through Friday.
              https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts

              No solar radiation storms affecting radio propagation crossing polar regions are likely through Friday.
              https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm

              160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.

              40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2330Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation on Wednesday and Thursday improving to mostly normal on Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

              30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation during local nighttime hours from late Thursday through early Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

              20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation during local nighttime hours from late Thursday through early Friday.

              17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation during local nighttime hours from late Thursday through early Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

              12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation during local nighttime hours from late Thursday through early Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

              There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

              Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

              Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 22 minutes earlier and sunset is 14 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.

              EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
              earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates

              Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
              https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

              SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

              The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
              http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

              SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

              UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422

              UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
              https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated

              UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
              https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated

              N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
              www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

              KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
              https://prop.kc2g.com

              SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
              http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

              SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

              GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
              https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index

              SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
              www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

              Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
              www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

              Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
              http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
              73 Al 4L5A

              Comment

              •  

                HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal through Sunday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of moderate degradation between about 0600Z and 1200Z Sunday.
                __________________________________________________ _____________

                The April 3rd W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

                The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 150 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Sunday.
                http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php

                SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 89 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Sunday.
                https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                The visible solar disk has five medium size active regions containing 31 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 560 micro solar hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
                www.solarham.net/regions.htm

                Solar wind speed is likely to be weakly enhanced at about 400 km/second through midday Saturday, then slightly increasing to about 450 km/second through about 0600Z Sunday due to weak coronal hole high speed stream effects. There is a chance that a glancing blow by a CME may mildly enhance solar wind speed to about 500 km/second or more between about 0600Z and 1200Z Sunday, then gradually weakening through late Sunday.
                https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind

                Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet through midday Saturday then slightly degrading to mostly quiet conditions through about 0600Z Sunday due to weak coronal hole high speed stream effects. Active conditions are likely from about 0600Z to 1200Z Sunday due to a possible glancing blow by a CME. There is a slight chance of an isolated weak geomagnetic storm between about 0600Z to 1200Z Sunday due to a possible glancing blow by a CME.
                https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
                https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes

                There is a slight chance of weak or minor radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth caused by M-class solar flares through Sunday. No strong radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares are expected through Sunday.
                https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts

                No solar radiation storms affecting HF propagation crossing polar regions are expected through Sunday.
                https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm

                160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

                40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday and Saturday and moderately degraded on Sunday.

                30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of moderate degradation during local nighttime house from about 0600Z to 1200Z Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

                20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of moderate degradation during local nighttime hours from about 0600Z to 1200Z Sunday.

                17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of moderate degradation during local nighttime hours from about 0600Z to 1200Z Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Friday and Saturday and moderately degraded on Sunday.

                12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of moderate degradation during local nighttime hours from about 0600Z to 1200Z Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Friday and Saturday and moderately degraded on Sunday. Late spring and summer high altitude winds in the daytime ionosphere will increasingly degrade daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation through late summer.

                There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

                Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

                Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 38 minutes earlier and sunset is 31 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.

                EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
                earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates

                Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
                https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

                SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
                http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

                SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

                UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422

                UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
                https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated

                UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
                https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated

                N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
                www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

                KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
                https://prop.kc2g.com

                SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
                http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

                SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

                GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
                https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index

                SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
                www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

                Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
                www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

                Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
                http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
                73 Al 4L5A

                Comment

                •  

                  HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal. Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal on Tuesday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded improving to mostly normal after midday Monday.
                  __________________________________________________ _____________

                  The April 3rd W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

                  The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 184 remaining mostly unchanged through Tuesday.
                  http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php

                  SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 166 remaining mostly unchanged through Tuesday.
                  https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                  The visible solar disk has two medium, six small and two very small active regions containing 52 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 770 micro solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
                  www.solarham.net/regions.htm

                  Solar wind speed is likely to be weakly enhanced at 400 km/second or more through midday Monday due to CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects, gradually declining to less than 400 km/second after midday Monday.
                  https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind

                  Geomagnetic activity is likely to reach active to minor storm conditions through midday Monday due to coronal hole high speed stream and CME effects, improving to quiet to unsettled conditions through early Tuesday, further improving to quiet conditions through late Tuesday,
                  https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
                  https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes

                  There is a chance of weak or minor radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth caused by M-class solar flares through Tuesday. No strong radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares are expected through Tuesday.
                  https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts

                  No solar radiation storms affecting HF propagation crossing polar regions are expected through Tuesday.
                  https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm

                  160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

                  40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be mostly normal after 0000Z Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday.

                  30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded during local nighttime hours through midday Monday, improving to mostly normal through midday Tuesday and improving to normal after midday Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

                  20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded during local nighttime hours through midday Monday, improving to mostly normal through midday Tuesday and improving to normal after midday Tuesday.

                  17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded during local nighttime hours through midday Monday, improving to mostly normal through midday Tuesday and improving to normal after midday Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

                  12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mildly degraded during local nighttime hours through midday Monday, improving to mostly normal through midday Tuesday and improving to normal after midday Tuesday.. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. Spring and summer winds blowing from the dayside to the nightside ionosphere reduce the volume of molecular oxygen available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation from May through September.

                  There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

                  Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

                  Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 41 minutes earlier and sunset is 33 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.

                  EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
                  earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates

                  Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
                  https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

                  SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                  The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
                  http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

                  SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

                  UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422

                  UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
                  https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
                  UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
                  https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated

                  N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
                  www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

                  KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
                  https://prop.kc2g.com

                  SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
                  http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

                  SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

                  GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
                  https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index

                  SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
                  www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

                  Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
                  www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

                  Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
                  http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net

                  73 Al 4L5A

                  Comment

                  •  

                    HF propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through Wednesday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours through Wednesday.
                    __________________________________________________ _____________

                    The Tuesday April 16th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.
                    All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

                    The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 191 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Wednesday.
                    http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php

                    SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was unavailable.
                    https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                    The visible solar disk has one large, two medium, five small and three very small active regions containing 83 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1070 micro solar hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth).
                    www.solarham.net/regions.htm

                    Solar wind speed is likely to be weakly enhanced at about 400 km/second or more through Wednesday due to effects of multiple weak CMEs.
                    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind

                    Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled to active through Wednesday due to effects of multiple weak CMEs. There is a chance of a minor geomagnetic storm late Wednesday due to CME effects.
                    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
                    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes

                    Minor to moderate radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth caused by M-class solar flares are likely through Wednesday. No strong radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares are expected through Wednesday.
                    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts

                    There is a very slight chance of minor solar radiation storms that may affect HF propagation crossing polar regions through Wednesday.
                    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm

                    160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

                    40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be normal after 0000Z Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations through Wednesday.

                    30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours through Wednesday, 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

                    20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours through Wednesday.

                    17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours through Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

                    12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours through Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. High altitude spring and summer winds blowing from the dayside to the nightside F2 region of the ionosphere reduce the volume of molecular oxygen available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation from May through September.

                    There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

                    Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

                    Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 41 minutes earlier and sunset is 30 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.

                    EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
                    earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates

                    Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
                    https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

                    SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                    The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
                    http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

                    SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

                    UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422

                    UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
                    https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
                    UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
                    https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated

                    N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
                    www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

                    KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
                    https://prop.kc2g.com

                    SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
                    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

                    SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

                    GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
                    https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index

                    SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
                    www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

                    Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
                    www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

                    Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
                    http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
                    73 Al 4L5A

                    Comment

                    •  

                      HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Thursday. HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. HF propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours through Thursday
                      __________________________________________________ _____________

                      The Thursday April 17th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

                      The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 198 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday.
                      http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php

                      SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 182 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday.
                      https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                      The visible solar disk has two large, two medium, four small and three very small active regions containing 66 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1200 micro solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).
                      www.solarham.net/regions.htm

                      Solar wind speed is likely to be slightly enhanced at about 400 km/second or less through Thursday due to effects of multiple weak CMEs.
                      https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind

                      Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled to active through Thursday due to effects of multiple weak CMEs. There is a chance of a minor geomagnetic storm before midday Thursday due to CME effects.
                      https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
                      https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes

                      Minor to moderate radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth caused by M-class solar flares are likely through Thursday. There is a slight chance of strong radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Thursday.
                      https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts

                      There is a very slight chance of minor solar radiation storms that may affect HF propagation crossing polar regions through Thursday.
                      https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm

                      160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.

                      40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be mildly degraded after 0000Z Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday and mildly degraded on Thursday.

                      30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours through Thursday, 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

                      20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours through Thursday.

                      17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours through Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday with possible mild degradation on Thursday.

                      12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday with possible mild degradation on Thursday. High altitude thermally driven summer winds blowing from the dayside to the nightside F2 region of the ionosphere reduce the volume of neutral molecular oxygen available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation from late spring through late summer.

                      There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

                      Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

                      Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 43 minutes earlier and sunset is 31 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.

                      EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
                      earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates

                      Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
                      https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

                      SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                      The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
                      http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

                      SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

                      UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422

                      UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
                      https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated

                      UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
                      https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated

                      N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
                      www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

                      KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
                      https://prop.kc2g.com

                      SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
                      http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

                      SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

                      GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
                      https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index

                      SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
                      www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

                      Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
                      www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

                      Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
                      http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
                      73 Al 4L5A

                      Comment

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