HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday then normal through Thursday. HF propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday, mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday
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The March 26th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 190 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 166 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one very large, two large, three small and two very small active regions containing 83 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1540 micro solar hemispheres (about eight times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to steadily decline below 600 km/second on Tuesday, below 500 km/second by early Wednesday and below 400 km/second by late Wednesday due to steadily waning CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled to active through late Tuesday, quiet to unsettled through early Wednesday, mostly quiet through late Wednesday and quiet during Thursday.
We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days and auroras are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
earthsky.org/sun/aurora-season-auroras-equinox-connection
Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are expected through Thursday. There is a chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Thursday.
There is a chance that highly energetic charged particles radiating from very large solar region 3615 may produce solar radiation storms causing mostly below normal propagation crossing polar regions through Tuesday and a slight risk of below normal propagation crossing polar regions through Thursday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday then improving to normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday then improving to normal on Wednesday and Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday improving to normal on Wednesday and Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday, improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday, improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday, improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, improving to normal on Wednesday and Thursday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to mostly normal on Tuesday, improving to normal on Wednesday and Thursday.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is ten minutes earlier and sunset is six minutes later than it was on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
The EarthSky Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2100 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
__________________________________________________ _____________
The March 26th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 190 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 166 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one very large, two large, three small and two very small active regions containing 83 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1540 micro solar hemispheres (about eight times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to steadily decline below 600 km/second on Tuesday, below 500 km/second by early Wednesday and below 400 km/second by late Wednesday due to steadily waning CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled to active through late Tuesday, quiet to unsettled through early Wednesday, mostly quiet through late Wednesday and quiet during Thursday.
We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days and auroras are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
earthsky.org/sun/aurora-season-auroras-equinox-connection
Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are expected through Thursday. There is a chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Thursday.
There is a chance that highly energetic charged particles radiating from very large solar region 3615 may produce solar radiation storms causing mostly below normal propagation crossing polar regions through Tuesday and a slight risk of below normal propagation crossing polar regions through Thursday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday then improving to normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday then improving to normal on Wednesday and Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday improving to normal on Wednesday and Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday, improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday, improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday, improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, improving to normal on Wednesday and Thursday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to mostly normal on Tuesday, improving to normal on Wednesday and Thursday.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is ten minutes earlier and sunset is six minutes later than it was on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
The EarthSky Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2100 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
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