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    HF propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday February 28th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
    __________________________________________________ _____________

    My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

    The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 166 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.

    SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 137 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.
    https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

    The visible solar disk has one very large and six medium active regions containing 63 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1420 micro-hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).
    http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

    Solar wind speed is likely to remain mildly elevated at about 400 km/second through Tuesday declining to about 350 km/second or less through Wednesday due to declining negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream effects.

    Geomagnetic conditions are likely to be quiet to unsettled through Tuesday and mostly quiet on Wednesday due to declining negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream effects.

    Minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares are likely, with a chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Wednesday.

    160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

    40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and normal on Wednesday.

    30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

    20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

    17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

    12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

    There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

    Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

    Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 38 minutes earlier and sunset is 71 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.

    Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

    SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

    The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
    http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

    SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

    The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422

    The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
    https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated

    N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
    www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

    KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
    https://prop.kc2g.com

    SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

    SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

    GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
    https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

    SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

    The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

    Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
    73 Al 4L5A

    Comment

    •  

      Normal HF propagation is likely to continue through the ARRL SSB DX Contest weekend by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
      __________________________________________________ _____________

      My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

      The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 167 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Friday.

      SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 95 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Friday.
      https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

      The visible solar disk has one very large, three medium and two tiny active regions containing 63 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1130 micro-hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth).
      http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

      Solar wind speed is likely to remain mildly elevated at about 400 km/second or less through Wednesday due to declining negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream effects declining to background levels of about 350 km/second or less through at least Friday.

      Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet through Wednesday due to declining negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream effects, further improving to quiet geomagnetic activity through at least Friday.

      Minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares are likely, with a slight chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through at least Friday.

      160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

      40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

      30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

      20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

      17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

      12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through at least Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

      There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

      Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

      Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 40 minutes earlier and sunset is 71 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.

      Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

      SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

      The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
      http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

      SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

      The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422

      The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
      https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated

      N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
      www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

      KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
      https://prop.kc2g.com

      SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
      http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

      SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

      GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
      https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

      SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

      The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

      Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
      73 Al 4L5A

      Comment

      •  

        HF propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Mostly normal to fair propagation is likely during the ARRL SSB DX Contest due to the chance of a weak glancing blow by a CME during Saturday March 2nd by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
        __________________________________________________ _____________

        My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 16 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.


        The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 167 and is likely to remain about the same during the ARRL SSB DX Contest.

        SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 103 and is likely to remain about the same during the ARRL SSB DX Contest.
        https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

        The visible solar disk has one very large, three medium and three tiny active regions containing 57 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1340 micro-hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).
        www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap


        Solar wind speed is likely to remain at about 400 km/second or more through Friday due to declining negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream effects, There is a chance that solar wind speed may increase to 400 km/second or more during Saturday of the ARRL SSB DX Contest due to a weak glancing blow by a CME.

        Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet with isolated unsettled intervals through Friday due to declining negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream effects. There is a chance that geomagnetic activity may increase to unsettled to active levels during Saturday of the ARRL SSB DX activity due to a weak glancing blow by a CME.

        Minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares are likely, with a slight chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through at least Friday.

        160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday degrading slightly during Saturday of the ARRL SSB DX Contest.


        40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday degrading slightly during Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday degrading slightly during Saturday of the ARRL SSB DX Contest.

        30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday degrading slightly during Saturday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

        20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday degrading slightly during Saturday of the ARRL SSB DX Contest


        17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday degrading slightly during Saturday of the ARRL SSB DX Contest. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday degrading slightly during Saturday of the ARRL SSB DX Contest.

        12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Friday degrading slightly during Saturday of the ARRL SSB DX Contest. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday degrading slightly during Saturday of the ARRL SSB DX Contest.

        There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

        Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.


        Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 42 minutes earlier and sunset is 72 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.

        Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

        SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

        The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
        www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php

        SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png


        The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_images/uk_ral_euhforia_earth.mp4#1708014964422

        The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
        https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated

        The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at: https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated

        N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
        www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

        KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
        https://prop.kc2g.com

        SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at

        www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot

        SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/managed/services/archive/product/meu/latest

        GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
        https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/products-data/forecasts/kp-index-forecast

        SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

        The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

        Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net

        73 Al 4L5A

        Comment

        •  

          Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through midday Saturday, becoming mildly degraded at mid and high latitudes through midday Sunday, then improving to mostly normal through late Sunday March 3rd by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
          __________________________________________________ _____________

          My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

          The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 165 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.

          SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 128 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.
          https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

          The visible solar disk has one very large, two large, one small and three very small active regions containing 57 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1560 micro-hemispheres (about eight times the surface area of the Earth).
          http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

          Solar wind speed is likely to remain at about 400 km/second or less through midday Saturday due to declining negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream effects. Solar wind speed is then likely to increase to 450 km/second or more through midday Sunday due to a weak glancing blow by a CME, then declining to about 400 km/second after midday Sunday.

          Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet to unsettled through midday Saturday due to declining negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream effects. Geomagnetic activity is likely to increase to unsettled to active from midday Saturday through midday Sunday due to a weak glancing blow by a CME, then improving to mostly quiet after midday Sunday as CME effects decline.

          Minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares are likely through Sunday, with a slight chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Friday.

          160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through midday Saturday, then slightly degraded through midday Sunday, then improving to normal through late Sunday.

          40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday, mildly degraded on Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday and mildly degraded on Sunday.

          30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be likely to be mostly normal through midday Saturday, then becoming mildly degraded through midday Sunday and improving to mostly normal after midday Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

          20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Saturday, then becoming mildly degraded through midday Sunday and improving to mostly normal after midday Sunday.

          17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Saturday, then becoming mildly degraded through midday Sunday and improving to mostly normal after midday Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

          12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through midday Saturday, then becoming mildly degraded through midday Sunday and improving to mostly normal after midday Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

          There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

          Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

          Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 46 minutes earlier and sunset is 75 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region. We are approaching the equinox season when active and geomagnetic storm conditions are about twice as likely and longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.

          Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

          SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at
          www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
          The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
          http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

          SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at
          https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

          The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at
          https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422

          The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
          https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated

          The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
          https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated

          N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
          www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

          KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
          https://prop.kc2g.com

          SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
          http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

          SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at
          http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

          GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
          https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

          SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
          www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

          The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
          www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

          Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
          http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
          73 Al 4L5A

          Comment

          •  

            Propagation is likely to be mostly poor at high latitudes and mostly fair at mid-latitudes through midday Monday. Propagation is likely to improve to mostly normal through late Monday then improving to normal through at least Wednesday March 6th. by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
            __________________________________________________ _____________

            My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

            The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 145 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.

            SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 105 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.
            https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

            The visible solar disk has two large, two small and three very small active regions containing 20 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 530 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
            http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

            Solar wind speed is likely to remain at 400 km/second or less through at least Wednesday due recent CME effects gradually declining to near background levels through at least Wednesday.

            Geomagnetic activity is likely to be unsettled to active with minor geomagnetic storm intervals through midday Monday due to negative polarity (-Bz) interplanetary magnetic field caused by CME activity. Geomagnetic activity is likely to improve to quiet to unsettled after midday Monday and further improving to quiet from Tuesday through at least Wednesday.

            Minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares are likely through at least Wednesday

            160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Wednesday.

            40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday then improving to normal through at least Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday then improving to normal from Tuesday through at least Wednesday.

            30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Monday then improving to mostly normal through late Monday and further improving to normal from Tuesday through at least Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

            20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Monday then improving to mostly normal through late Monday and further improving to normal from Tuesday through at least Wednesday.

            17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Monday then improving to mostly normal through late Monday and further improving to normal from Tuesday through at least Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday improving to normal from Tuesday through at least Wednesday.

            12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Monday then improving to mostly normal through late Monday and further improving to normal from Tuesday through at least Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday improving to normal from Tuesday through at least Wednesday.

            There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

            Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

            Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 48 minutes earlier and sunset is 77 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.

            We are in the equinox season when active and geomagnetic storm conditions are about twice as likely and longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.

            Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

            SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

            The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
            http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

            SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

            The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
            The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
            https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated

            The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at: https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated

            N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
            www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

            KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
            https://prop.kc2g.com

            SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
            http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

            SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

            GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
            https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

            SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

            The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

            Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
            73 Al 4L5A

            Comment

            •  

              Some of the best HF propagation of the Solar Maximum phase of Solar Cycle 25 is likely through at least Friday March 8th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
              __________________________________________________ _____________

              My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

              The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 143 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Friday.

              SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 105 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Friday.
              https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

              The visible solar disk has two large, one small and six very small active regions containing 23 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 480 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
              http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

              Solar wind speed is likely remain near background levels below 400 km/second through at least Friday.

              Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet through at least Friday.

              There is a chance of minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares through at least Friday.

              160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

              40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

              30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

              20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

              17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

              12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through at least Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

              There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

              Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

              Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 50 minutes earlier and sunset is 78 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.

              We are in the equinox season when active and geomagnetic storm conditions are about twice as likely and longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.

              Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

              SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

              The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
              http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

              SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

              The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422

              The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
              https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated

              The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at: https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated

              N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
              www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

              KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
              https://prop.kc2g.com

              SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
              http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

              SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

              GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
              https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

              SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

              The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

              Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
              73 Al 4L5A

              Comment

              •  

                Some of the best HF propagation of the Solar Maximum phase of Solar Cycle 25 is likely through Friday March 8th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
                __________________________________________________ _____________

                My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.


                The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 144 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.

                SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 110 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.
                https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                The visible solar disk has one large, six small and three very small active regions containing 26 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 560 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
                www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservices/applications/solarmap


                Solar wind speed is likely to remain near background levels of about 400 km/second or less through Friday.

                Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet through Friday.

                There is a chance of minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares through Friday.

                160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.

                40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

                30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

                20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Friday.


                17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

                12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

                There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

                Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.


                Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 52 minutes earlier and sunset is 79 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.

                We are in the equinox season when active and geomagnetic storm conditions are about twice as likely and longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.

                Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

                SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
                www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php

                SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/station-k-index.png


                The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_images/uk_ral_euhforia_earth.mp4#1708014964422

                The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
                https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
                The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at: https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated

                N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
                www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

                KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
                https://prop.kc2g.com

                SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at

                www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/geospace-geomagnetic-activity-plot
                73 Al 4L5A

                Comment

                •  

                  Some of the best HF propagation of the Solar Maximum phase of Solar Cycle 25 is likely through midday Friday slowly degrading to mostly normal through late Friday March 8th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
                  __________________________________________________ _____________

                  My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

                  The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 136 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.

                  SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 100 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.
                  https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                  The visible solar disk has two large, four small and two very small active regions containing 25 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 510 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
                  http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

                  Solar wind speed is likely to remain near background levels of about 400 km/second or less through Friday.

                  Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet through midday Friday degrading to unsettled to active through late Friday.

                  There is a chance of minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares through Friday.

                  160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.

                  40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal on Thursday and mostly normal on Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

                  30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Friday gradually degrading to mostly normal through late Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

                  20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Friday gradually degrading to mostly normal through late Friday.

                  17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Friday gradually degrading to mostly normal through late Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

                  12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through midday Friday gradually degrading to mostly normal through late Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

                  There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

                  Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

                  Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 53 minutes earlier and sunset is 80 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.

                  We are in the equinox season when active and geomagnetic storm conditions are about twice as likely and longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.

                  Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

                  SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
                  The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
                  http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

                  SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

                  The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422

                  The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
                  https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated

                  The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at: https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated

                  N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
                  www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

                  KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
                  https://prop.kc2g.com

                  SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
                  http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

                  SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

                  GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
                  https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

                  SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

                  The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

                  Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
                  73 Al 4L5A

                  Comment

                  •  

                    Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal, degrading to mostly normal from midday Friday through late Saturday, then improving to normal through late Sunday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations from midday Friday through early Sunday March 10th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
                    __________________________________________________ _____________

                    My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

                    The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 136 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.

                    SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 95 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.
                    https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                    The visible solar disk has one large, two small and four very small active regions containing 29 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 370 micro-hemispheres (about two times the surface area of the Earth).
                    http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

                    Solar wind speed is likely to remain mildly elevated at about 500 km/second or less through late Saturday then gradually declining to about 400 km/second or less through late Sunday.

                    Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet through midday Friday, degrading to unsettled to active with a possible minor geomagnetic storm through midday Saturday due to weak coronal hole high speed stream and grazing CME effects. Geomagnetic activity
                    is likely to be mostly unsettled through late Saturday, gradually improving to mostly quiet through late Sunday.

                    There is a chance of minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares through Sunday.

                    160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

                    40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be normal on Friday, mildly degraded on Saturday, improving to normal on Sunday.

                    30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations from midday Friday through late Saturday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

                    20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations from midday Friday through late Saturday.

                    17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations from midday Friday through late Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be normal on Friday, mostly normal on Saturday and normal on Sunday.

                    12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradations from midday Friday through late Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be normal on Friday, mostly normal on Saturday and normal on Sunday.

                    There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

                    Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

                    Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 55 minutes earlier and sunset is 81 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.

                    We are in the equinox season when active and geomagnetic storm conditions are about twice as likely and longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.

                    Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

                    SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                    The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
                    http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

                    SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
                    The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422

                    The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
                    https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated

                    The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at: https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated

                    N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
                    www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

                    KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
                    https://prop.kc2g.com

                    SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
                    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

                    SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

                    GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
                    https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

                    SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

                    The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

                    Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net

                    73 Al 4L5A

                    Comment

                    •  

                      HF propagation is likely to be mostly normal on Monday improving to near normal on Tuesday March 12th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
                      __________________________________________________ _____________

                      My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

                      The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 127 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday.

                      SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 80 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday.
                      https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                      The visible solar disk has one large and four very small active regions containing 27 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 280 micro-hemispheres (about 1.5 times the surface area of the Earth).
                      http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

                      Solar wind speed is likely to decline to less than 400 km/second on Tuesday, steadily declining to about 350 km/second or less by Tuesday.

                      Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled on Monday and mostly quiet on Tuesday.

                      There is a chance of minor daytime radio blackouts caused by occasional M-class solar flares through Tuesday.

                      160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

                      40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and near normal on Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0830Z is likely to be normal on Monday and near normal on Tuesday.

                      30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and near normal on Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

                      20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and near normal on Tuesday.

                      17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and near normal on Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and near normal on Tuesday.

                      12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and near normal on Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1300Z to 1500Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and near normal on Tuesday.

                      There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

                      Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

                      Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 57 minutes earlier and sunset is 83 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.

                      We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days are almost twice as likely and longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.

                      Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

                      SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                      The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
                      http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

                      SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

                      The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422

                      The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
                      https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated

                      The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at: https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated

                      N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
                      www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

                      KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
                      https://prop.kc2g.com

                      SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
                      http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

                      SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

                      GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
                      https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

                      SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

                      The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

                      Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
                      73 Al 4L5A

                      Comment

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