W3LPL Propagation forecast

[4L5A]

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation may begin by late October if solar flux values continue to persist well above 200. 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely to occur regularly from September through November. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 240 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 230 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday.

The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, one stable large region, two growing medium active regions, one stable medium active region, two stable small active regions, one decaying small active region and two decaying very small active regions containing 90 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 2240 micro solar hemispheres (about 13 times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be about 400 km/second or less through at least Saturday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through Saturday.


M-class solar flares are likely to cause a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of widespread blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday.

There is a slight chance that S1-class solar radiation storms may cause brief, minor degradation of propagation crossing the northern hemisphere polar region through Saturday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Saturday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be normal through Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Saturday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Saturday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the northern hemisphere from June through September is always moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be normal through Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.



Thermally driven high velocity seasonal thermospheric winds at F2 region altitude blow from the high temperature dayside hemisphere to the lower temperature nightside hemisphere reducing the volume of neutral atomic oxygen available to be ionized in the F2 region during daytime hours, lowering the MUF for F2 propagation crossing high latitudes to mostly less than 28 MHz through about mid-September.



Brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation is extremely unlikely from about 1100-2200Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) is extremely unlikely from about 1400-1800Z. F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America is extremely unlikely from about 2000-0200Z. Above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) is extremely unlikely from about 1900-0300Z. It is extremely unlikely that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 43 minutes later and sunset is 42 minutes earlier than it was on June 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing all latitudes is likely to be normal through Sunday.



40 and 30 meter DX propagation is likely from early evening until after sunrise.

20, 17 and 15 meter DX propagation is likely 24 hours per day.

12 meter DX propagation is likely from early morning until late night.

10 meter DX propagation is likely from mid-morning through evening hours.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation may begin by late October if solar flux values continue to persist well above 200. 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely to occur regularly from the southern tier of US states from September through November. More northerly locations need an additional sporadic-E or F2 hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 233 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.


SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 192 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.

The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, one stable large region, two growing medium active regions, one stable medium active region, one growing small active region, two stable small active regions, and one stable very small active region containing 75 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 2240 micro solar hemispheres (about ten times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be 400 km/second or less through at least Sunday.



Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through Sunday.


M-class solar flares are likely to cause a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of widespread blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday.

No S1-class or stronger solar radiation storms are expected through Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be normal through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Sunday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Sunday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the northern hemisphere from June through September is always moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.



Thermally driven high velocity seasonal thermospheric winds at F2 region altitude blow from the high temperature dayside hemisphere to the lower temperature nightside hemisphere reducing the volume of neutral atomic oxygen available to be ionized in the F2 region during daytime hours, lowering the MUF for F2 propagation crossing high latitudes to mostly less than 28 MHz through about mid-September.



Brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation is extremely unlikely from about 1100-2200Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) is extremely unlikely from about 1400-1800Z. F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America is extremely unlikely from about 2000-0200Z. Above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) is extremely unlikely from about 1900-0300Z. It is extremely unlikely that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 45 minutes later and sunset is 45 minutes earlier than it was on June 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal through Wednesday except for mild degradation from late Tuesday through early Wednesday

Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be normal through Wednesday except for mild to moderate degradation from late Tuesday through early Wednesday



40 and 30 meter DX propagation is likely from early evening until after sunrise.

20, 17 and 15 meter DX propagation is likely 24 hours per day.

12 meter DX propagation is likely from early morning through late night.

10 meter DX propagation is likely from mid-morning through early night.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation may begin by late October if solar flux values continue to persist well above 200. 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely to occur regularly from the southern tier of US states from September through November. More northerly locations need an additional sporadic-E or F2 hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 230 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.


SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 201 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.

The visible solar disk has one stable large solar active region, one decaying large solar active region, one growing medium solar active region, two decaying medium solar active regions, two growing small active regions, one growing small solar active regions and two growing very small active regions containing 78 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1640 micro solar hemispheres (about ten times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be 400 km/second or less through at least Wednesday.



Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through Wednesday except for a brief period of unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions from late Tuesday through early Wednesday.


M-class solar flares are likely to cause a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Wednesday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of widespread blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Wednesday.

There is a slight chance of S1-class solar energetic particle radiation storms through Wednesday that might cause slight degradation of trans-polar propagation

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and normal on Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal on Monday, mostly normal on Tuesday ands normal on Wednesday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Wednesday except for a brief period on mild to moderate degradation from late Tuesday through early Wednesday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Wednesday except for a brief period of mild to moderate degradation from late Tuesday through early Wednesday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the northern hemisphere from June through September is likely to be moderately degraded within several hours of local noon especially at more southerly locations by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Wednesday except for a brief period of mild to moderate degradation from late Tuesday through early Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be normal through Wednesday except for a brief period of mild to moderate degradation from late Tuesday through early Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.



Thermally driven high velocity seasonal thermospheric winds at F2 region altitude blow from the high temperature dayside hemisphere to the lower temperature nightside hemisphere reducing the volume of neutral atomic oxygen available to be ionized in the F2 region during daytime hours, lowering the MUF for F2 propagation crossing high latitudes to mostly less than 28 MHz and degrading the duration and reliability of 10 meter DX propagation crossing high latitudes through about mid-September,



Brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic sporadic-E propagation is extremely unlikely from about 1100-2200Z between mid-latitude U.S states and Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) is extremely unlikely from about 1400-1800Z. F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America is extremely unlikely from about 2000-0200Z. Above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) is extremely unlikely from about 1900-0300Z. It is extremely unlikely that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 47 minutes later and sunset is 48 minutes earlier than it was on June 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Thursday.

Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal through Thursday except for brief mild degradation from late Tuesday through early Wednesday

Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be normal through Thursday except for brief mild to moderate degradation from late Tuesday through early Wednesday.



40 and 30 meter DX propagation is likely from early evening until after sunrise.

20, 17 and 15 meter DX propagation is likely 24 hours per day.

12 meter DX propagation is likely from early morning until late night hours,

10 meter DX propagation is likely from mid-morning through early night hours.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation may begin by late October if solar flux values continue to persist well above 200. 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely to occur regularly from the southern tier of US states from September through November. More northerly locations need an additional sporadic-E or F2 hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 230 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 165 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.

The visible solar disk has two growing large solar active regions, one stable large solar active region, one decaying large solar active region, two growing medium solar active regions, three stable small active regions, one decaying small solar active region and one stable very small active regions containing 92 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1950 micro solar hemispheres (about 12 times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be 400 km/second or less through at least Thursday.



Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through Thursday except for brief periods of unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions from late Tuesday through early Wednesday.


M-class solar flares are likely to cause a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Thursday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of widespread blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Thursday.

There is a slight chance of S1-class solar energetic particle radiation storms through Thursday having a slight effect on trans-polar propagation

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal on Monday, mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Thursday except for a brief period on mild to moderate degradation from late Tuesday through early Wednesday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Thursday except for a brief period of mild to moderate degradation from late Tuesday through early Wednesday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the northern hemisphere from June through September is likely to be moderately degraded within several hours of local noon especially at more southerly locations by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Thursday except for a brief period of mild to moderate degradation from late Tuesday through early Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be normal through Thursday except for a brief period of mild to moderate degradation from late Tuesday through early Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.



Thermally driven high velocity seasonal thermospheric winds at F2 region altitude blow from the high temperature dayside hemisphere to the lower temperature nightside hemisphere reducing the volume of neutral atomic oxygen available to be ionized in the F2 region during daytime hours, lowering the MUF for F2 propagation crossing high latitudes to mostly less than 28 MHz and degrading the duration and reliability of 10 meter DX propagation crossing high latitudes through about mid-September.



Brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) is extremely unlikely from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. Above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) is extremely unlikely from about 1900-0300Z. It is extremely unlikely that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 47 minutes later and sunset is 50 minutes earlier than it was on June 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Friday.

Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal through Friday except for ongoing mild degradation through midday Wednesday.

Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be normal through Friday except for ongoing mild to moderate degradation through midday Wednesday.



40 and 30 meter DX propagation is likely from early evening until after sunrise.

20, 17 and 15 meter DX propagation is likely 24 hours per day.

12 meter DX propagation is likely from early morning until late night hours,

10 meter DX propagation is likely from mid-morning through early night hours.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation may begin by late October if solar flux values continue to persist well above 200. 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely to occur regularly from the southern tier of US states from September through November. More northerly locations need an additional sporadic-E or F2 hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 214 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 183 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.

The visible solar disk has two stable large solar active regions, one decaying large solar active region, one growing medium solar active region, one stable medium active region, one decaying medium solar active region and four stable small active regions containing 70 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1950 micro solar hemispheres (about 12 times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be 400 km/second or less through at least Friday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through Friday except for ongoing brief periods of unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions through midday Wednesday.


M-class solar flares are likely to cause a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Friday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of widespread blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Friday.

There is a slight chance of S1-class solar energetic particle radiation storms through Friday having a slight effect on trans-polar propagation

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be normal through Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday and Friday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Friday except for ongoing brief periods of mild to moderate degradation through midday Wednesday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Friday except for ongoing brief periods of mild to moderate degradation through midday Wednesday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the northern hemisphere through September is likely to be moderately degraded within several hours of local noon especially at more southerly latitudes by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Friday except for ongoing brief periods of mild to moderate degradation through midday Wednesday, 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be normal through Friday except for ongoing brief periods of mild to moderate degradation through midday Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday.



Thermally driven high velocity seasonal thermospheric winds at F2 region altitude blow from the high temperature dayside hemisphere to the lower temperature nightside hemisphere reducing the volume of neutral atomic oxygen available to be ionized in the F2 region during daytime hours, lowering the MUF for F2 propagation crossing high latitudes to mostly less than 28 MHz and degrading the duration and reliability of 10 meter DX propagation crossing high latitudes through about mid-September.



Brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) is extremely unlikely from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. Above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) is extremely unlikely from about 1900-0300Z. It is extremely unlikely that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 48 minutes later and sunset is 51 minutes earlier than it was on June 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Some of the best summer solar maximum propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely to continue through at least Saturday, except for ongoing mild degradation of high latitude propagation paths likely to end by midday Thursday.



Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Saturday.

Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal through Saturday.

Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be normal through Saturday except for ongoing mild degradation likely to end by midday Thursday.



40 meter DX propagation is likely from early evening until after sunrise.

30 meter DX propagation is likely from late afternoon until a few hours after sunrise.

20, 17 and 15 meter DX propagation is likely 24 hours per day.

12 meter DX propagation is likely from early morning until late night hours,

10 meter DX propagation is likely from mid-morning through early night hours.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation may begin by late October if solar flux values continue to persist well above 200. 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely to occur regularly from the southern tier of US states from September through November. More northerly locations need an unlikely additional sporadic-E or F2 hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 208 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday.


SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 180 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday.

The visible solar disk has one stable large solar active region, one decaying large solar active region, two stable medium solar active regions, two decaying medium solar active regions, one growing small solar active region, one stable small active region, one stable very small solar active region and one decaying very small solar active region containing 53 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1520 micro solar hemispheres (about nine times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be 400 km/second or less through at least Saturday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through Saturday except for an ongoing brief period of unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions likely to end by midday Thursday.

M-class solar flares are likely to cause a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of widespread blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday.

There is a slight chance of S1-class solar energetic particle radiation storms through Saturday having a slight effect on trans-polar propagation

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Saturday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be normal through Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Saturday except for ongoing mild degradation likely to end by midday Thursday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Saturday except for ongoing mild degradation likely to end by midday Thursday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded through mid-September within several hours of local noon at more northerly mid latitudes, moderately degraded through late September at mid- latitudes and more severely degraded through October at more southerly mid-latitudes by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Saturday except for ongoing mild degradation likely to end by midday Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be normal through Saturday except for ongoing mild degradation likely to end by midday Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.



Thermally driven high velocity seasonal thermospheric winds at F2 region altitude blow from the high temperature dayside hemisphere to the lower temperature nightside hemisphere reducing the volume of neutral atomic oxygen available to be ionized in the F2 region during daytime hours, lowering the MUF for F2 propagation crossing high latitudes to mostly less than 28 MHz and degrading the duration and reliability of 10 meter DX propagation crossing high latitudes through about mid-September.



Brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) is extremely unlikely from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. Above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) is extremely unlikely from about 1900-0300Z. It is extremely unlikely that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 48 minutes later and sunset is 51 minutes earlier than it was on June 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Some of the best summer solar maximum propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely to continue through at least Sunday.



Propagation crossing all latitudes is likely to be normal through at least Sunday.



40 meter DX propagation is likely from early evening until after sunrise.

30 meter DX propagation is likely from late afternoon until a few hours after sunrise.

20, 17 and 15 meter DX propagation is likely 24 hours per day.

12 meter DX propagation is likely from early morning until late night hours,

10 meter DX propagation is likely from mid-morning through early night hours.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation may begin by late October if solar flux values continue to persist well above 200. 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely to occur regularly from the southern tier of US states from September through November. More northerly locations need an unlikely additional sporadic-E or F2 hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 203 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.


SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 141 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.


The visible solar disk has two growing large solar active regions, one stable large solar active region, two growing medium solar active regions and two growing small solar active regions containing 44 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1530 micro solar hemispheres (about nine times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be 400 km/second or less through at least Sunday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through at least Sunday.

M-class solar flares are likely to cause a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of widespread blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday.

There is a slight chance of S1-class solar energetic particle radiation storms through Sunday having a slight effect on trans-polar propagation

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Sunday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be normal through at least Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Sunday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Sunday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded through mid-September within several hours of local noon at more northerly mid latitudes, moderately degraded through late September at mid- latitudes and more severely degraded through October at more southerly mid-latitudes by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least Sunday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be normal through at least Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least Sunday.



Thermally driven high velocity seasonal thermospheric winds at F2 region altitude blow from the high temperature dayside hemisphere to the lower temperature nightside hemisphere reducing the volume of neutral atomic oxygen available to be ionized in the F2 region during daytime hours, lowering the MUF for F2 propagation crossing high latitudes to mostly less than 28 MHz and degrading the duration and reliability of 10 meter DX propagation crossing high latitudes through about mid-September.



Brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) is extremely unlikely from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. Above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) is extremely unlikely from about 1900-0300Z. It is extremely unlikely that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 50 minutes later and sunset is 54 minutes earlier than it was on June 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Some of the best summer solar maximum propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely to continue through at least Wednesday.



Propagation crossing all latitudes is likely to be normal through at least Wednesday.



40 meter DX propagation is likely from early evening until after sunrise.

30 meter DX propagation is likely from late afternoon until a few hours after sunrise.

20, 17 and 15 meter DX propagation is likely 24 hours per day.

12 meter DX propagation is likely from early morning until late night hours,

10 meter DX propagation is likely from mid-morning through early night hours.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation may begin by late October if solar flux values continue to persist well above 200. 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely to occur regularly from the southern tier of US states from September through November. More northerly locations need an unlikely additional sporadic-E or F2 hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 227 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.


SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 200 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.

The visible solar disk has one growing large solar active region, one decaying large solar region, one growing medium solar active region, one growing small solar active region, one decaying small solar active region and two very small decaying solar active regions containing 56 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1560 micro solar hemispheres (about nine times the surface area of the Earth). Four solar active regions will be rotating onto the visible solar disk over the next several days.

Solar wind speed is likely to be 400 km/second or less through at least Wednesday.



Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through at least Wednesday.


M-class solar flares are likely to cause a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Wednesday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of widespread blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Wednesday.

There is a slight chance of S1-class solar energetic particle radiation storms through Wednesday having a slight effect on propagation crossing the northern polar region.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Wednesday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be normal through at least Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal through at least Wednesday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Wednesday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Wednesday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded through mid-September within several hours of local noon at more northerly mid latitudes, moderately degraded through late September at mid- latitudes , more severely degraded through October at more southerly mid-latitudes and severely degraded at low latitudes through at least October by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least Wednesday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be normal through at least Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least Wednesday.



Thermally driven high velocity seasonal thermospheric winds at F2 region altitude blow from the high temperature dayside hemisphere to the lower temperature nightside hemisphere reducing the volume of neutral atomic oxygen available to be ionized in the F2 region during daytime hours, lowering the MUF for F2 propagation crossing high latitudes to mostly less than 28 MHz and degrading the duration and reliability of 10 meter DX propagation crossing high latitudes through about mid-September.



Brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) is extremely unlikely from about 1400-1800Z. There is a slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. Above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) is extremely unlikely from about 1900-0300Z. It is extremely unlikely that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 52 minutes later and sunset is 57 minutes earlier than it was on June 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Some of the best summer solar maximum propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely to continue through at least Thursday.



Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through at least Thursday



Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded through Wednesday improving to normal through at least Thursday



40 meter DX propagation is likely from early evening until after sunrise.

30 meter DX propagation is likely from late afternoon until a few hours after sunrise.

20, 17 and 15 meter DX propagation is likely 24 hours per day.

12 meter DX propagation is likely from early morning until late night hours,

10 meter DX propagation is likely from mid-morning through early night hours.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation may begin by late October if solar flux values continue to persist well above 200. 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely to occur regularly from the southern tier of US states from September through November. More northerly locations need an unlikely additional sporadic-E or F2 hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 236 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 172 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.

The visible solar disk has one growing large solar active region, one decaying large solar region, one growing medium solar active region, one stable medium solar active region, one decaying small solar active region, one stable very small solar active region and two decaying very small solar active regions containing 100 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1500 micro solar hemispheres (about nine times the surface area of the Earth). Three solar active regions will be rotating onto the visible solar disk over the next several days.

Solar wind speed is likely to be 500 km/second or less through Wednesday improving to 400 km/second or less through at least Thursday.



Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely through Wednesday improving to quiet conditions through at least Thursday.


M-class solar flares are likely to cause a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Thursday. There is a chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of widespread blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Thursday.

There is a chance of S1-class solar energetic particle radiation storms through Thursday having a slight effect on propagation crossing the northern polar region.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Thursday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday improving to normal through at least Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday improving to normal through at least Thursday,


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday improving to normal through at least Thursday . Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday improving to normal through at least Thursday . 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded through mid-September within several hours of local noon at more northerly mid latitudes, moderately degraded through late September at mid- latitudes , more severely degraded through October at more southerly mid-latitudes and severely degraded at low latitudes through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday improving to normal through at least Thursday . 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday improving to normal through at least Thursday



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday improving to normal through at least Thursday . 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday improving to normal through at least Thursday.



Thermally driven high velocity seasonal thermospheric winds at F2 region altitude blow from the high temperature dayside hemisphere to the lower temperature nightside hemisphere reducing the volume of neutral atomic oxygen available to be ionized in the F2 region during daytime hours, lowering the MUF for F2 propagation crossing high latitudes to mostly less than 28 MHz and degrading the duration and reliability of 10 meter DX propagation crossing high latitudes through about mid-September.



There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E or above-the-MUF F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 53 minutes later and sunset is 59 minutes earlier than it was on June 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Some of the best summer solar maximum propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely to continue through at least Friday.



Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through at least Friday



Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday then improving to normal through least Friday.



40 meter DX propagation is likely from early evening until after sunrise.

30 meter DX propagation is likely from late afternoon until a few hours after sunrise.

20, 17 and 15 meter DX propagation is likely 24 hours per day.

12 meter DX propagation is likely from sunrise through late night hours.

10 meter DX propagation is likely from mid-morning through early night hours.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation may begin by late October if solar flux values continue to persist well above 200. 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely to occur regularly from the southern tier of US states from September through November. More northerly mid-latitude locations need an unlikely additional sporadic-E or a more likely an F2 hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 238 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.


SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 177 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.

The visible solar disk has one growing large solar active region, one growing medium solar active region, one stable medium solar active region, one decaying medium solar active region, one decaying small solar active region and two decaying very small solar active regions containing 100 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1500 micro solar hemispheres (about nine times the surface area of the Earth). solar active regions will be rotating onto the visible solar disk over the next several days.

Solar wind speed is likely to be 450 km/second or less on Wednesday then improving to 400 km/second or less through at least Friday.



Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on Wednesday then improving to quiet conditions through at least Friday.

M-class solar flares are likely to cause a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Friday. There is a chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of widespread blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Friday.

S1-class solar energetic particle radiation storms are likely on Wednesday having a slight effect on propagation crossing the northern polar region. There is a slight chance of S1-class solar energetic particle radiation storms on Thursday and Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Friday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 0030Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday improving to normal through at least Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday then improving to normal through at least Friday,


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday then improving to normal through at least Friday . Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday then improving to normal through at least Friday . 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded through mid-September within several hours of local noon at more northerly mid latitudes, moderately degraded through late September at mid- latitudes , more severely degraded through October at more southerly mid-latitudes and severely degraded at low latitudes through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday then improving to normal through at least Friday . 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday then improving to normal through at least Friday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday then improving to normal through at least Friday . 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday then improving to normal through at least Friday



Thermally driven high velocity seasonal thermospheric winds at F2 region altitude blow from the high temperature dayside hemisphere to the lower temperature nightside hemisphere reducing the volume of neutral atomic oxygen available to be ionized in the F2 region during daytime hours, lowering the MUF for F2 propagation crossing high latitudes to mostly less than 28 MHz and degrading the duration and reliability of 10 meter DX propagation crossing high latitudes until about mid-September.



There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E or above-the-MUF F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 54 minutes later and sunset is 61 minutes earlier than it was on June 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.