W3LPL Propagation forecast

[4L5A]

Some of the best HF and 6 meter F2 propagation of Solar Cycle 24 is likely to continue for the next week



Propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal through at least late Sunday



Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through at least late Sunday.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



More frequent, longer duration and more geographically widespread global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely through this weekend and continuing through next week and again during late November if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days . 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states during the next week. More northerly mid-latitude locations need a less reliable additional above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop or an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 297 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday.

The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 297 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday.

The visible solar disk has two growing large active regions, two growing medium active regions, one stable medium active region and two decaying medium active regions. There are 77 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area is 2320 micro solar hemispheres (about 14 times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to remain above 400 km/second through Sunday.

Frequent M-class solar flares are expected to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday. There is a chance that X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday.

The ongoing S1 minor solar energetic particle radiation storm and associated minor polar cap absorption is likely to end during Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday . Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday . 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday . 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday . 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.



There is a chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z during early and late November. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via brief intervals of above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 40 minutes later and sunset is 58 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded through Thursday then improving to mostly normal through late Saturday.



Propagation crossing auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal through late Saturday.



Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through late Saturday.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



More frequent, longer duration and more geographically widespread global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely from late October through early November and again during late November if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days . 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states in late October and early November. More northerly mid-latitude locations need a less reliable additional above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop or an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.

The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 278 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 201 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

The visible solar disk has two growing large active regions, one stable large active region, one decaying large active region, one growing medium active region, one stable medium active region and one decaying medium active region. There are 100 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area is 2120 micro solar hemispheres (about 13 times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to remain above 400 km/second through early Saturday then declining below 400 km/second through late Saturday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through at least late Saturday.

Frequent M-class solar flares are expected to cause brief periods of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday. There is a chance that X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday.

The ongoing S1 minor solar energetic particle radiation storm and associated minor polar cap absorption is likely to continue through Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday . Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday . 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday . 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday . 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday.



There is a chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z from late October through early November and again during late November. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via brief intervals of above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 39 minutes later and sunset is 57 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded through midday Wednesday gradually improving to mildly degraded through early Thursday.



Propagation crossing auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal through late Friday.



Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through late Friday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



More frequent, longer duration and more geographically widespread global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely during late October, early November and late November if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days . 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states in late October and early November. More northerly mid-latitude locations need a less reliable additional above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop or an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 263 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Friday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 228 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Friday.

The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, one decaying large active region, four growing medium active regions, one stable medium active region and one decaying medium active region. There are 110 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area is 2130 micro solar hemispheres (about 13 times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to remain above 400 km/second through midday Thursday then gradually declining below 400 km/second through late Friday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through at least late Friday.


Frequent M-class solar flares are expected to cause brief periods of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Friday. There is a chance that X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Friday.

The ongoing S1 minor solar energetic particle radiation storm and associated minor polar cap absorption is likely to continue through late Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday . Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday . 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday . 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday . 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.



There is a chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z during late October, early November and late November. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via brief intervals of above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 38 minutes later and sunset is 56 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly poor through midday Tuesday.

Propagation is likely to remain mildly degraded through early Wednesday local nighttime hours,

gradually improving to mostly normal from early Wednesday through late Thursday.



Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through late Thursday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



More frequent, longer duration and more geographically widespread global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely during late October and early November and late November if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days . 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states in late October and early November. More northerly mid-latitude locations need a less reliable additional above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop or an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 255 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 249 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday.

The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, three growing medium active regions, one stable medium active region and one decaying medium active region. There are 76 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area is 1670 micro solar hemispheres (about ten times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to remain above 500 km/second through midday Tuesday, remaining above 400 km/second through midday Wednesday then gradually declining to 400 km/second or less through Thursday.



Unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely through midday Tuesday, improving the quiet to unsettled through midday Wednesday then mostly quiet through late Thursday.


Frequent M-class solar flares are expected to cause brief periods of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Thursday. There is a chance that X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Thursday.

The ongoing S2 moderate solar energetic particle radiation storm and associated polar cap absorption is likely to continue through late Tuesday, then declining to an S1 minor radiation storm and minor polar cap absorption through Thursday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be moderately degraded on Tuesday, mildly degraded on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded on Tuesday, mildly degraded on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday . Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded on Tuesday, mildly degraded on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday . 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded on Tuesday, mildly degraded on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday . 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Tuesday improving to mostly normal through Thursday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded on Tuesday, mildly degraded on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday . 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Tuesday improving to mostly normal through Thursday.



There is a chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z during late October and early and late November. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via brief intervals of above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 37 minutes later and sunset is 50 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through late Saturday.

Mild degradation is likely during early Friday local nighttime hours.



Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through late Saturday.

Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through late Saturday.

Mild degradation is likely during early Friday local nighttime hours.



Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through late Saturday.

The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 183 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 119 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

The visible solar disk has two stable medium active regions and one decaying medium active region. The are 34 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area is 610 micro solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be mostly below 400 km/second but is expected to exceed 400 km/second during early Friday hours.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions with brief unsettled intervals are likely through late Saturday. Several hours of active geomagnetic conditions are likely early Friday.

Brief M-class solar flares are likely to cause occasional brief periods of minor radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday. There is a chance that X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday.

No solar energetic particle radiation storms and associated polar cap absorption events are expected through Saturday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday improving to normal on Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through late Saturday. Mild degradation is likely during early Friday local nighttime hours. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through late Saturday. Mild degradation is likely during early Friday local nighttime hours. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through late Saturday. Mild degradation is likely during early Friday local nighttime hours. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation during local nighttime hours early Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday.



There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z during late October and early November. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via brief intervals of geographically focused above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 32 minutes later and sunset is 48 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 32 minutes later and sunset is 48 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 32 minutes later and sunset is 48 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with a chance on mild degradation during local nighttime hours early Wednesday and early Thursday.




Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



There is a chance of global 6 meter F2 propagation in late October, early November and late November if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days . 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states in late in October and early November. More northerly mid-latitude locations need an additional above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop or an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 165 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 135 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday.

The visible solar disk has two growing medium active regions and one declining medium active region. The are 58 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area is 880 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be mostly below 400 km/second but is likely reach about 400 km/second or more during early Wednesday and early Thursday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected through Thursday.


Brief M-class solar flares are likely to cause occasional brief periods of minor radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Thursday.

No solar energetic particle radiation storms and associated polar cap absorption events are expected through Thursday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2200Z is likely to be normal through Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday and normal on Thursday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation during local nighttime hours early Wednesday and early Thursday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation during local nighttime hours early Wednesday and early Thursday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation during local nighttime hours early Wednesday and early Thursday. . 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday and normal on Thursday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be likely to be mostly normal but is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradation during local nighttime hours early Wednesday and early Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Tuesday, mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday.



There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z during late October and early November. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via brief intervals of geographically focused above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 30 minutes later and sunset is 46 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal but is likely to be mildly degraded during local nighttime hours early Tuesday.



Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal but is likely to be mildly degraded during local nighttime hours during early Tuesday.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely in late October, early November and late November if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days . 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states in late in October and early November. More northerly mid-latitude locations need an additional above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop or an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 162 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 156 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.

The visible solar disk has two growing medium active regions and one stable medium active region. The are 33 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area is 610 micro solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be mostly below 400 km/second but is likely reach about 400 km/second or more during early Tuesday.



We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days occur about twice as often as during the solstice seasons . Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected during Monday. Mostly unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on Tuesday after a brief period of active geomagnetic conditions and a slight chance of a minor geomagnetic storm early Tuesday. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely during Wednesday after a brief period of unsettled conditions early Wednesday.


Brief M-class solar flares are likely to cause occasional brief periods of minor radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Wednesday.

No solar energetic particle radiation storms and associated polar cap absorption events are expected through Wednesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2300Z is likely to be normal on Monday. mostly normal on Tuesday and normal on Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal on Monday. mostly normal on Tuesday and normal on Wednesday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal but is likely to be mildly degraded during local nighttime hours early Tuesday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal but is likely to be mildly degraded during local nighttime hours early Tuesday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal but is likely to be mildly degraded during local nighttime hours early Tuesday . 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Monday, mostly normal on Tuesday and normal on Wednesday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be likely to be mostly normal but is likely to be mildly degraded during local nighttime hours early Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Monday, mostly normal on Tuesday and normal on Wednesday.



There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via brief intervals of geographically focused above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 29 minutes later and sunset is 44 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through midday Friday then becoming mildly degraded mainly during local nighttime hours late Friday, early Saturday and early Sunday.



Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. There is a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours late Friday, early Saturday and early Sunday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely in late October, early November and late November if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days . 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states in late in October and early November. More northerly mid-latitude locations need an additional above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop or an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 173 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 155 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday.

The visible solar disk has one stable large active region, one stable medium active region, three growing medium active regions, one decaying medium active region and one growing small active region. The are 66 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area is 1020 micro solar hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be mostly below 400 km/second but is likely reach about 400 km/second or more late Friday, early Saturday and early Sunday.



We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days occur about twice as often as during the solstice seasons . Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through midday Friday, Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are likely from midday Friday through early Sunday. There is a slight chance of a minor geomagnetic storm early Saturday. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely from early through midday Sunday. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely after midday Sunday.


Brief M-class solar flares are likely to cause occasional brief periods of minor radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday.



There is a slight chance that X1-class or stronger solar flares may cause strong to severe radio blackouts of several hours hour duration on propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday.


There is a slight chance that S1 class solar energetic particle radiation storms may cause brief minor degradation of propagation crossing the northern polar region through Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2300Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Friday, mostly normal on Saturday and normal on Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal on Friday improving to mostly normal on Saturday and Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Friday then becoming mildly degraded mainly during local nighttime hours late Friday, early Saturday and early Sunday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Friday then becoming mildly degraded mainly during local nighttime hours late Friday, early Saturday and early Sunday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Friday then becoming mildly degraded mainly during local nighttime hours late Friday, early Saturday and early Sunday . 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be likely to be mostly normal through midday Friday then becoming mildly degraded mainly during local nighttime hours late Friday, early Saturday and early Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be to be mildly degraded during Friday then improving to mostly normal during Saturday and Sunday



There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via brief intervals of geographically focused above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 26 minutes later and sunset is 41 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through late Thursday then becoming mildly degraded mainly during local nighttime hours late Friday and early Saturday.



Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday. There is a chance of mildl degradations during local nighttime hours late Friday and early Saturday

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely in late October, early November and late November if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days . 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states in late in October and early November. More northerly mid-latitude locations need an additional above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop or an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 168 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 124 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

The visible solar disk has one decaying large active region, one stable medium active region, two growing medium active regions, one decaying medium active region and one growing small active region. The are 65 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area is 900 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to remain mostly above 400 km/second through Saturday due to coronal hole high stream effects.



We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days occur about twice as often as during the solstice seasons . Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely during Thursday. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected through midday Friday, degrading to active geomagnetic conditions with a chance of a weak geomagnetic storm early Saturday. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely from before midday through late Saturday.


Brief M-class solar flares are likely to cause occasional brief periods of minor radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday.



There is a very slight chance that X1-class or stronger solar flares may cause strong to severe radio blackouts of several hours hour duration on propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday


There is a slight chance that S1 class solar energetic particle radiation storms may cause brief minor degradation of propagation crossing the northern polar region through Saturday.


160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday and mildly degraded on Friday and mostly normal on Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal on Thursday and Friday and mostly normal on Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday and Friday and mildly degraded during Saturday local nighttime hours. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through late Thursday then becoming mildly degraded mainly during local nighttime hours late Friday and early Saturday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through late Thursday then becoming mildly degraded mainly during local nighttime hours late Friday and early Saturday . 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly degraded during Thursday then improving to mostly normal during Friday and Saturday



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal through late Thursday then becoming mildly degraded mainly during local nighttime hours late Friday and early Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be to be mildly degraded during Thursday then improving to mostly normal during Friday and Saturday



There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via brief intervals of above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 24 minutes later and sunset is 39 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded during Wednesday improving to mostly normal during Thursday and Friday.



Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely in late October and early November but only if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days . 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states in late in October and early November. More northerly mid-latitude locations need an additional above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop or an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 171 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Friday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 119 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Friday.

The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, one decaying large active region, one stable medium active region and two growing small active regions. The are 51 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area is 1290 micro solar hemispheres (about eight times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be increase to more than than 400 km/second during Wednesday declining to less than 400 km/second during Thursday and Friday.



We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days occur about twice as often as during the solstice seasons . Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected through late Wednesday. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely during Wednesday and Thursday.


Brief M-class solar flares are likely to cause occasional brief periods of minor radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Friday.



There is a very slight chance that X1-class or stronger solar flares may cause strong to severe radio blackouts of several hours hour duration on propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Friday

There is a slight chance that S1 class solar energetic particle radiation storms may cause brief minor degradation of propagation crossing the northern polar region from Wednesday through Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be moderately to be normal through Friday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2300Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday and Friday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Wednesday and mostly normal during Thursday and Friday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded during Wednesday then improving to mostly normal during Thursday and Friday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded during Wednesday then improving to mostly normal during Thursday and Friday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded during Wednesday then improving to mostly normal during Thursday and Friday.. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly degraded during Wednesday then improving to mostly normal during Thursday and Friday



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mildly degraded during Wednesday then improving to mostly normal during Thursday and Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be to be mildly degraded during Wednesday then improving to mostly normal during Thursday and Friday



There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via brief intervals of above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 23 minutes later and sunset is 37 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.