W3LPL Propagation forecast

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
normal during Tuesday degrading to mostly normal to mildly disturbed
during Wednesday and moistly normal during Thursday.

HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal during
Tuesday degrading to mostly normal during Wednesday and Thursday.

HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday

The 2300Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 134.

The late Sunday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 123

There is a chance of 6 meter TEP propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America. There is a slight chance of oblique TEP propagation to the South Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa through May. There is a chance that unreliable geographically focused sporadic-E propagation may briefly couple some lucky mid-latitude stations into TEP and oblique-TEP propagation through May.

40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia is likely to be normal during Tuesday and mostly normal during Wednesday and Thursday.

This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The visible solar disk has one growing medium active region, two stable medium regions and four small regions. There are 33 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 790 micro-solar hemispheres (approximately five times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.com/regions.htm

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly below 400 km/second during Tuesday then increasing to about 500 km/second during Wednesday and gradually declining below 500 km/second during Thursday.
Minor to moderate radio blackouts with a chance Strong R3 radio blsckoutd are likely during Monday, Tuesday and Thursday.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely during Tuesday, unsettled to minor geomagnetic storm conditions are likely during Wednesday and unsettled to active conditions are likely during Thursday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal during Tuesday, mostly normal to mildly disturbed during Wednesday improving to mostly normal during Thursday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be normal during Tuesday, mostly normal to mildly degraded during Wednesday and mostly normal during Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal during Tuesday and Wednesday and mostly normal during Thursday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
normal during Tuesday, mostly normal to mildly degraded during Wednesday and mostly normal during Thursday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
normal during Tuesday, mostly normal to mildly degraded during Wednesday and mostly normal during Thursday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal during Tuesday, mostly normal to mildly degraded during Wednesday and mostly normal during Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal during Tuesday, mostly normal to mildly degraded during Wednesday and mostly normal during Thursday.

12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal during Tuesday, mostly normal to mildly degraded during Wednesday and mostly normal during Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal during Tuesday, mostly normal to mildly degraded during Wednesday and mostly normal during Thursday.


There is a very slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 82 minutes earlier and sunset is 63 minutes later than it was on March 20th.

Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal during Friday and Saturday improving to normal during Sunday.

HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

The 2300Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 120.

The early Friday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN)
was 132.

There is a chance of 6 meter TEP propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America. There is a slight chance of oblique TEP propagation to the South Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa through May.
There is a chance that unreliable geographically focused sporadic-E propagation may briefly couple some lucky mid-latitude stations into TEP and oblique-TEP propagation through May.

40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Friday and Saturday and normal on Sunday.

This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The visible solar disk has and two growing small active regions, five stable small regions and one decaying small region. There are 19 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 350 micro-solar hemispheres (approximately twice the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly near 500 km/second during Friday, gradually declining to about 400 km/second or less by Sunday.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions with a chance of active intervals are likely on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

There is a very slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 81 minutes earlier and sunset is 61 minutes later than it was on March 20th.

Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with mildly disturbed periods on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be
mostly normal with mildly disturbed periods on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

The 2300Z Monday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 118.

The late Monday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 68.

There is a chance of 6 meter TEP propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America. There is a slight chance of oblique TEP propagation to the South Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa through May. There is a chance that unreliable geographically focused sporadic-E propagation may briefly couple some lucky mid-latitude stations into TEP and oblique-TEP propagation through May.

40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Monday, Wednesday and Wednesday.


This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The visible solar disk has one medium and three small active regions. There are 13 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 330 micro-solar hemispheres (approximately twice the surface area of the Earth).


Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly above 400 km/second through Wednesday.

Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely on Monday, improving to quiet to unsettled on Tuesday and Wednesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal to mildly degraded during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be mildly degraded during Monday and mostly normal to mildly degraded Tuesday and normal during Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal during Monday and Tuesday improving to mostly normal during Wednesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or both ends of propagation paths during Monday,Tuesday and Wednesday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mildly degraded during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal to mildly degraded during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal to mildly degraded during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

There is a very slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 78 minutes earlier and sunset is 57 minutes later than it was on March 20th.

Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or
both ends of propagation paths during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal
during Friday, and normal on Saturday and Sunday.

HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal
during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

The 2300Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 147.

The early Friday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 74.

There is a chance of 6 meter TEP propagation from the southern tier of
U.S. states to South America. There is a slight chance of oblique TEP
propagation to the South Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa through mid-May.
There is a chance that unreliable geographically focused sporadic-E
propagation may briefly couple some lucky mid-latitude stations into
TEP and oblique-TEP propagation through mid-May.

40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to
south and southeast east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during
Friday and normal on Saturday and Sunday.


This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The visible solar disk has one decaying very large active region, one stable medium region, one decaying medium region and two small regions. There are 54 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1440 micro-solar hemispheres (approximately nine times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly below 500 km/second until late Friday increasing to above 500 km/second from late Friday through early Saturday, then declining below 500 km/second from early Saturday through late Sunday.

Active geomagnetic conditions are likely from Friday through early Saturday with likely brief minor geomagnetic storm conditions late Friday. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are likely from early Saturday through late Sunday

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday, improving to normal during Saturday and Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday, normal on Saturday and Sunday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or both ends of propagation paths during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or both ends of propagation paths during Friday, Saturday and Sunday,

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or both ends of propagation paths during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday,

12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or both ends of propagation paths during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

There is a very slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 72 minutes earlier and sunset is 50 minutes later than it was on March 20th.

Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either
or both ends of propagation paths during Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal during Thursday, mostly normal during Friday and normal during Saturday.

HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal during Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

The 2300Z Wednesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 154.

The early Thursday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 107.

There is a chance of 6 meter TEP propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America. There is a slight chance of oblique TEP
propagation to the South Pacific and Sub-Saharan Africa through mid-May.
There is a chance that unreliable geographically focused sporadic-E propagation may briefly couple some lucky mid-latitude stations into
TEP and oblique-TEP propagation through mid-May.

40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia is likely to be normal during Thursday,
mostly normal during Friday and normal during Saturday.


This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The visible solar disk has one decaying very large active region, one stable medium region and one decaying medium region. There are 54 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1480 micro-solar hemispheres (approximately nine times the surface area of the Earth).


Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly below 500 km/second on Thursday increasing to above 500 km/second on Friday and declining to below 500 km/second during Saturday.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely during Thursday. Mostly active conditions are likely during Friday with likely brief minor geomagnetic storm conditions late Friday. Active conditions are likely early Saturday improving to quiet to unsettled through late Saturday

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth during Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations during Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, mildly degraded on Friday and mostly normal on Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal on Thursday, mildly degraded on Friday and mostly normal on Saturday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or both ends of propagation paths during Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or both ends of propagation paths during Thursday, Friday and Saturday,

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or both ends of propagation paths during Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday, Friday and Saturday,

12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations on either or both ends of propagation paths during Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

There is a very slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 70 minutes earlier and sunset is 48 minutes later than it was on March 20th.

Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations
during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal
during Tuesday and Wednesday and normal on Thursday.

HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal
during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

The 2300Z Monday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 159.


The late Monday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 103.

There is a chance of 6 meter TEP propagation from the southern tier of
U.S. states to South America. There is a slight chance of oblique TEP
propagation to the South Pacific through mid-May. There is a chance
that unreliable geographically focused sporadic-E propagation may
briefly couple some lucky mid-latitude stations into TEP and oblique
TEP propagation through mid-May.

40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America
to south and southeast east Asia is likely to be mostly normal
during Tuesday and Wednesday and normal on Thursday.


This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The visible solar disk has one stable very large active region and four small active regions. There are 58 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1420 micro-solar hemispheres (approximately eight times the surface area of the Earth).


Solar wind velocity is likely to remain above 500 km/second through Wednesday, then gradually decreasing to about 400 km/second by Thursday.

Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely from Tuesday through early Wednesday. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are likely from early Wednesday through early Thursday then improving to mostly quiet through late Thursday.

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday and Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday and Thursday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

There is a very slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 68 minutes earlier and sunset is 46 minutes later than it was on March 20th.

Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations
during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal on Monday,
mostly normal on Tuesday and normal on Wednesday.

HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal on Monday,
Tuesday and Wednesday.

The 2300Z Sunday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 157.

The early Monday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 94.

There is a chance of 6 meter TEP propagation from the southern tier of
U.S. states to South America. There is a slight chance of oblique TEP
propagation to the South Pacific through mid-May. There is a chance
that unreliable geographically focused sporadic-E propagation may
briefly couple some lucky mid-latitude stations into TEP and oblique-
TEP propagation through mid-May.

40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to
south and southeast east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during
Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.


This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The visible solar disk has one stable very large active region and three small active regions. There are 37 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1300 micro-solar hemispheres (approximately eight times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain above 500 km/second through midday Tuesday, then gradually decreasing to about 400 km/second by midday Wednesday.

Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely from Monday through early Tuesday. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are likely from early Tuesday through early Wednesday then improving to mostly quiet through late Wednesday.

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Monday, mostly normal on Tuesday and normal on Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Monday, mostly normal on Tuesday and normal on Wednesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild nighttime degradations during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

There is a very slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 65 minutes earlier and sunset is 43 minutes later than it was on March 20th.

Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of isolated nighttime mild degradations
on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal
on Thursday, Friday and Saturday

HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal
on Thursday, Friday and Saturday

The 2300Z Wednesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 147.

The early Thursday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 60.

There is a chance of 6 meter TEP propagation from the southern tier of
U.S. states to South America. There is a slight chance of oblique TEP
propagation to the South Pacific through mid May. There is a chance that
unreliable geographically focused sporadic-E propagation may briefly
couple some lucky mid-latitude stations into TEP and oblique-TEP
propagation through late-April.

40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America
to south and southeast east Asia is likely to be mostly normal
on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The visible solar disk has one growing very large active region and four small active regions. There are 27 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1190 micro-solar hemispheres (approximately seven times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain at about 450 km/second through Friday, possibly increasing to about 500 km/second on Saturday.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on from Thursday through late Saturday. Unsettled to active conditions are likely late Saturday with a change of a minor geomagnetic storm.

There is a slight chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth during Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal during Thursday Friday and Friday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal during Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

There is a very slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 61 minutes earlier and sunset is 41 minutes later than it was on March 20th.

Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal with a chance of isolated nighttime minor degradations on
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal on
Tuesday and Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday.

HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal on
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

The 2300Z Monday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 153.

The early Tuesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 107.

There is a chance of 6 meter TEP propagation from the southern tier of
U.S. states to South America. There is a slight chance of oblique TEP
propagation to the South Pacific through late April. There is a chance that
unreliable geographically focused sporadic-E propagation may briefly
couple some lucky mid-latitude stations into TEP and oblique-TEP
propagation through late-April.

40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to
south and southeast east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The visible solar disk has one stable medium active region and eight small active regions. There are 28 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 410 micro-solar hemispheres (approximately three times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain at 400 km/second or less through Thursday.

Mostly quiet to geomagnetic conditions are likely on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

There is a slight chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be mostly normal during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal during Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

There is a very slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 59 minutes earlier and sunset is 39 minutes later than it was on March 20th.

Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely
to be normal with a chance of isolated nighttime minor degradations
on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal
on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

The 2300Z Sunday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 154.

There is a chance of 6 meter TEP propagation from the southern tier of
U.S. states to South America. There is a slight chance of oblique TEP
propagation to the South Pacific through late April. There is a chance that
unreliable geographically focused sporadic-E propagation may briefly
couple some lucky mid-latitude stations into TEP and oblique-TEP
propagation through late-April.

40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to
south and southeast east Asia is likely to be normal on Monday,
Tuesday and Wednesday.


This forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The visible solar disk has one stable medium active region, one decaying medium active region and seven small active regions. There are 29 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 420 micro-solar hemispheres (approximately three times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.com/regions.htm

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain at about 400 km/second or less through Wednesday.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on Monday, mostly quiet on Tuesday and quiet on Wednesday.

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal during Monday and Tuesday and normal on Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until after sunset.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2350Z is likely to be mostly normal during Monday and Tuesday and normal on Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal during Monday and Tuesday and normal on Wednesday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be
mostly normal during Monday and Tuesday and normal on Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Monday and Tuesday and normal on Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Monday and Tuesday and normal on Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Monday and Tuesday and normal on Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during Monday and Tuesday and normal on Wednesday.

There is a very slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 57 minutes earlier and sunset is 39 minutes later than it was on March 20th.

Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.