W3LPL Propagation forecast

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely

to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during

local nighttime hours during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal

on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



The 2200Z Sunday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 185 .

The early Monday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 214.

There is a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP season

improves in March.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south

and southeast east Asia is likely to be normal during local daytime hours

and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



There is a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP season improves in March. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning any time from local late morning to evening hours.


The visible solar disk has one growing medium active region, two stable medium active regions, one decaying medium active region and eight small active regions. There are 151 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1270 micro-solar hemispheres (about eight times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be near or above 500 km/second from Monday through midday Tuesday then gradually declining to near 400 km/second or less from late Tuesday through late Wednesday.



Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely through late Monday. Unsettled to active conditions are likely from early through midday Tuesday, then returning to quiet to unsettled conditions through late Wednesday.




No S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms are expected.

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. It is unlikely that X-class solar flares will cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, mildly degraded on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



There is a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP season improves in March. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 27 minutes earlier and sunset is 59 minutes later than it was on December 21st.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar region

is likely to be moderately degraded during Friday daytime hours,

improving to mildly degraded during Friday night and further improving

to mostly normal during Saturday and Sunday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded

on Friday, improving to mostly normal on Saturday and further

improving to normal on Sunday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal on Friday,

Saturday and Sunday.



The 2200Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 177 .

The late Thursday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 107.

6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south

and southeast east Asia is likely to be moderately degraded during

Friday daytime hours, improving to mildly degraded during Friday

local nighttime hours, then further improving to mostly normal

during Saturday and Sunday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning.


The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, three growing medium active regions, one decaying medium active region and three small active regions. There are 32 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1200 micro-solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be near or above 500 km/second on Friday and Saturday then declining to about 400 km/second or more on Sunday.



Mostly active geomagnetic conditions are likely on Friday until arrival of minor geomagnetic storms after midday. Unsettled to active conditions are likely during early Saturday hours. Mostly quiet conditions are likely during midday Saturday, then degrading to unsettled to active from late Saturday through early Sunday. Mostly quiet conditions are likely from before midday through late Sunday with possible unsettled conditions developing late in the day.




No S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms are expected.


There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. It is unlikely that X-class solar flares will cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday, mildly degraded on Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded during Friday daytime hours improving to mildly degraded during Friday local nighttime hours. Propagation is likely to improve to mostly normal during Saturday and Sunday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded during Friday daytime hours improving to mildly degraded during Friday local nighttime hours. Propagation is likely to improve to mostly normal during Saturday and Sunday.



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded during Friday daytime hours improving to mildly degraded during Friday local nighttime hours. Propagation is likely to improve to mostly normal during Saturday and Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be moderately degraded during Friday daytime hours improving to mildly degraded during Friday local nighttime hours then further improving to mostly normal during Saturday and Sunday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded during Friday daytime hours improving to mildly degraded during Friday local nighttime hours. Propagation is likely to improve to mostly normal during Saturday and Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be moderately degraded during Friday daytime hours improving to mildly degraded during Friday local nighttime hours then further improving to mostly normal during Saturday and Sunday..



6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 24 minutes earlier and sunset is 57 minutes later than it was on December 21st.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly to moderately degraded

during local nighttime hours during Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be

mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



The 2200Z Wednesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 169 .

The late Wednesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 87.

6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly degraded during local nighttime hours during Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning.


The visible solar disk has two growing medium active regions, two stable medium active regions and two small active regions. There are 28 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 800 micro-solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be mostly above 400 km/second on Thursday, above 500 km/second on Friday and near 500 km/second on Saturday.



Mostly unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on Thursday with active conditions before the likely arrival of a brief minor geomagnetic storm late in the day. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on Friday with isolated active intervals and a chance minor geomagnetic storm late in the day. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on Saturday with possible unsettled conditions late in the day.




No S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms are expected.

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. It is unlikely that X-class solar flares will cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be moderately degraded on Thursday, mildly degraded on Friday and mostly normal on Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours during Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours during Thursday, Friday and Saturday



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours during Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly degraded during local nighttime hours during Thursday, Friday and Saturday



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours during Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly degraded during local nighttime hours during Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 22 minutes earlier and sunset is 55 minutes later than it was on December 21st.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.


SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1800Z, 2000Z and 2200Z at

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly to moderately degraded

during local nighttime hours during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be

mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



The 2200Z Sunday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 158 .


The early Tuesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 100.

6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south

and southeast east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours

and mildly degraded during local nighttime hours during Tuesday, Wednesday

and Thursday,


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning.


The visible solar disk has one growing medium active region, three stable medium active regions and three small active regions. There are 24 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 840 micro-solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain elevated mostly above 500 km/second through late Thursday.



Unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on Tuesday with isolated active intervals late in the day. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on Wednesday with isolated active intervals late in the day. Mostly unsettled conditions are likely on Thursday with possible active to minor geomagnetic storm conditions late in the day.




There is a slight chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may slightly degrade propagation crossing polar regions on Tuesday.


M-class solar flares are likely to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mildly degraded Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly degraded during local nighttime hours during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal during daytime hours and mildly degraded during local nighttime hours during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 20 minutes earlier and sunset is 53 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely

to be mildly to strongly degraded during local nighttime hours from

early Monday through early Tuesday, then mildly degraded

during local night time hours from late Tuesday until late Wednesday.



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be

mildly degraded on Monday, then slightly degraded on Tuesday

and mostly normal on Wednesday.



The 2200Z Sunday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 163 .


The early Monday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 96.

6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded from early Monday through early Tuesday, and slightly degraded from late Tuesday until late Wednesday

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning.


The visible solar disk has one growing medium active region, two decaying medium active regions and five small active regions. There are 32 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 685 micro-solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain elevated mostly above 500 km/second through late Wednesday.



Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely from early Monday through late Tuesday.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions with isolated active periods are likely during Wednesday.




There is a chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may slightly degrade propagation crossing polar regions on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.


M-class solar flares are likely to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mildly degraded on Monday, mostly normal on Tuesday and normal on Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal on Monday, mostly normal on Tuesday and normal on Wednesday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to strongly degraded during local nighttime hours from early Monday through early Tuesday, and mildly degraded during local night time hours from late Tuesday until late Wednesday.30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be strongly degraded during local nighttime hours from early Monday through early Tuesday, and mildly degraded during local night time hours from late Tuesday until late Wednesday.



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be strongly degraded during local nighttime hours from early Monday through early Tuesday, and mildly degraded during local night time hours from late Tuesday until late Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded from early Monday through early Tuesday, and slightly degraded from late Tuesday until late Wednesday



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be strongly degraded during local nighttime hours from early Monday through early Tuesday, and mildly degraded during local night time hours from late Tuesday until late Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded from early Monday through early Tuesday, and slightly degraded from late Tuesday until late Wednesday.



6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 19 minutes earlier and sunset is 51 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Some of the best HF propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely

from midday Saturday through late Sunday.



HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

slightly degraded during local nighttime hours from midday Friday

until midday Saturday then improving to normal through late Sunday.



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal

on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.



The 2200Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 186 .


The 2249Z Thursday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 165.

6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to

south and southeast east Asia is likely to be slightly degraded from

midday Friday until midday Saturday then improving to normal through

late Sunday.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning.

The visible solar disk has one decaying large active region and nine small active regions. There are 69 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 760 micro-solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain elevated above 400 km/second through early Saturday then gradually declining to 400 km/second or less on Saturday and Sunday.



Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are likely through midday Friday.

Unsettled conditions are likely from midday Friday until midday Saturday.

Quiet conditions are likely from midday Saturday until late Sunday.




There is a chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may slightly degrade propagation crossing polar regions on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.


M-class solar flares are expected to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday, improving to normal on Saturday and Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal on Friday, mostly normal on Saturday and normal on Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be slightly degraded during local nighttime hours from midday Friday until midday Saturday then improving to normal through late Sunday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be slightly degraded during local nighttime hours from midday Friday until midday Saturday then improving to normal through late Sunday



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be slightly degraded during local nighttime hours from midday Friday until midday Saturday then improving to normal through late Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be slightly degraded from midday Friday until midday Saturday then improving to normal through late Sunday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be slightly degraded during local nighttime hours from midday Friday until midday Saturday then improving to normal through late Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be slightly degraded from midday Friday until midday Saturday then improving to normal through late Sunday.



6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 16 minutes earlier and sunset is 49 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Some of the best HF propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely on Thursday,

Friday and Saturday; however, propagation crossing the auroral ovals

and polar regions is likely to be slightly degraded during local nighttime

hours from midday Friday until midday Saturday.



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal on

Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



The 2200Z Wednesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 193 .

The 2249Z Wednesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 157.

6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March.



Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia

on 80 through 10 meters is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning.


The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, two decaying medium active regions and five small active regions. There are 69 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 990 micro-solar hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain at about 400 km/second or less on Thursday, increasing at about 400 km/second or more on Friday and Saturday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on Thursday, Friday and Saturday; however, mostly unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely from before midday Friday until midday Saturday.



Propagation crossing polar, auroral. mid and low latitude regions is likely to be on normal Thursday, Friday and Saturday; however, propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be slightly degraded during local nighttime hours from midday Friday until midday Saturday.

There is a slight chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may slightly degrade propagation crossing polar regions on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

M-class solar flares are expected to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be normal on Thursday, mostly normal on Friday improving to normal on Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday but degrading to mostly normal during local nighttime hours from midday Friday through midday Saturday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday but degrading to mostly normal during local nighttime hours from midday Friday through midday Saturday.



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday but degrading to mostly normal during local nighttime hours from midday Friday through midday Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday but degrading to mostly normal during local nighttime hours from midday Friday through midday Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 14 minutes earlier and sunset is 47 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Some of the best HF propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



The 2200Z Tuesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 210 .

The late Tuesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 166.

There is a slight chance of unreliable short duration 6 meter F2 propagation

during the next week as a result of ongoing increased sunspot activity.

6 meter F2 propagation is likely to become more frequent, more reliable

and longer in duration when TEP season begins in March.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be normal

on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal

on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia

on 80 through 10 meters is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.


The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, one growing medium active region, one stable medium active region and four small active regions. There are 104 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1215 micro-solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely remain at 400 km/second or less on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be normal on on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.


There is a slight chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may slightly degrade propagation crossing polar regions on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

M-class solar flares are expected to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



There is a slight chance of unreliable short duration 6 meter F2 propagation during the next week as a result of ongoing increased sunspot activity There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 13 minutes earlier and sunset is 46 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

The 2200Z Monday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 221 .

The early Tuesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 169.

There is a slight chance of unreliable short duration 6 meter F2 propagation

during the next week as a result of ongoing increased sunspot activity.

6 meter F2 propagation is likely to become more frequent, more reliable

and longer in duration when TEP season begins in March.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be

mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday.



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia

on 80 through 10 meters is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday

and Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



There is a slight chance of unreliable short duration 6 meter F2 propagation during the next week as a result of ongoing increased sunspot activity. 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to become more frequent, more reliable and longer in duration when TEP season begins in March. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning.

The visible solar disk has one growing medium active region, three stable medium active regions and three small active regions. There are 76 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 890 micro-solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to gradually decline to 400 km/second or less on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on Tuesday, mostly quiet conditions are likely on Wednesday and quiet conditions are likely on Thursday.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday.


There is a slight chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may slightly degrade propagation crossing polar regions on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

M-class solar flares are expected to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and normal on Wednesday and Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday and normal on Thursday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday.



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to mildly degraded until late Tuesday, improving to mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday.



There is a slight chance of unreliable short duration 6 meter F2 propagation during the next week as a result of ongoing increased sunspot activity There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 12 minutes earlier and sunset is 44 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

The 2200Z Tuesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 177 .

The early Thursday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 96.



6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be

normal on Thursday, mostly normal on Friday and mildly degraded on Saturday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal on Thursday,

mostly normal on Friday and mostly normal with mildly degraded periods Saturday



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal on Thursday,

Friday and Saturday.



Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia

on 80 through 10 meters is likely to be normal on Thursday, mostly normal

on Friday and mildly degraded on Saturday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March.

6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning.


The 2200Z Tuesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 177 .

The early Thursday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 96.

The visible solar disk has two growing medium active regions, one stable medium active region and two small active regions. There are 81 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 540 micro-solar hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be well below 400 km/second , then gradually increasing to above 400 km/second from late Friday through Saturday.



Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on Thursday, mostly quiet on Friday and quiet to unsettled with a chance of brief minor geomagnetic storm conditions on Saturday.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be normal on Thursday, mostly normal on Friday and mildly degraded on Saturday.


No S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that slightly degrade propagation crossing polar regions are expected through Saturday.

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be normal on Thursday, mostly normal Friday and mildly degraded on Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal on Thursday, mostly normal Friday and mildly degraded on Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday, mostly normal Friday and mildly degraded on Saturday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday, mostly normal Friday and mildly degraded on Saturday.



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday, mostly normal Friday and mildly degraded on Saturday.. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal on Thursday, mostly normal Friday and mildly degraded on Saturday..



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday, mostly normal Friday and mildly degraded on Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal on Thursday, mostly normal Friday and mildly degraded on Saturday.



6 meter F2 propagation is unlikely until TEP season begins in March. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is seven minutes earlier and sunset is 39 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.