W3LPL Propagation forecast

[4L5A]

The solar flux index declined slightly to 216 during Wednesday while SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number rose significantly to 204 during early Thursday. Slightly more reliable 6 meter F2 propagation is likely through midday Wednesday. Unsettled to minor geomagnetic storm conditions are likely to degrade the reliability of 6 meter F2 propagation from about midday Thursday through early Saturday. Slightly improved F2 propagation is possible by about midday Saturday.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal through about midday Thursday. Mild to moderately degraded MUFs are likely mainly during local nighttime hours from about midday Thursday through about midday Friday. Improved propagation is likely by midday Saturday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal through about midday Friday. Mildly degraded MUFs are likely mainly during local nighttime hours from midday Friday through midday Saturday. Improved propagation is likely by midday Saturday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through at least Saturday.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Slightly more widespread, slightly more reliable and slightly longer duration global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely through about midday Thursday and during Saturday if geomagnetic activity remains mostly quiet. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 216 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number rose significantly to 204 early Thursday and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, one decaying large active region and one stable medium active region. The remaining six active regions are small and mostly stable. There are 63 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1130 micro solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain near background levels below 400 km/second through about midday Thursday, increasing above 400 km/second from about midday Thursday through early Saturday then gradually waning to about 400 km/second or less after about midday Saturday.



Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through about midday Thursday. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely from about midday Thursday through about midday Saturday, with a chance of minor geomagnetic storm conditions from about late Friday through about early Saturday. We are entering the winter solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through about midday Thursday. MUFs are likely to be mildly to degraded mainly during local nighttime hours from about midday Thursday through early Saturday but periods of moderate degradation are possible if the north-south (Bz) component of the interplanetary magnetic field is oriented southwards for several hours.

M-class solar flares are likely to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday.


There is a chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may cause slightly increased polar absorption through at least Saturday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Friday improving to mostly normal on Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday and mildly degraded from before midday Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Thursday, mildly to moderately degraded during Friday then gradually improving by early to midday Saturday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Thursday, mildly to moderately degraded during Friday then gradually improving by early to midday Saturday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through late November due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Thursday, mildly to moderately degraded during Friday then gradually improving by early to midday Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday then degrading to mildly to moderately degraded on Friday and Saturday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through about midday Friday, mildly to moderately degraded from about midday Friday though about midday Saturday then improving to mostly normal after about midday Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday then degrading to mildly to moderately degraded on Friday and Saturday.



There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z. Significant improvement is possible if the solar flux index significantly exceeds 200 for several days. There is a chance enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 69 minutes later and sunset is 77 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

The solar flux index suddenly rose to 235 at 2200Z Tuesday November 25th. 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to significantly improve over the next few days if the solar flux index persists well over 200 for several days



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday with a chance of mildly degraded intervals during local nighttime hours if the north-south (Bz) component of the interplanetary magnetic field is oriented southwards for several hours. Propagation is likely to improve to normal on Thursday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday improving to normal through at least Thursday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through at least Thursday.



The solar flux index suddenly reached 235 at 2200Z Tuesday November 25th. 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to significantly improve over the next few days if the solar flux index persists well over 200 for several days.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Widespread, more reliable and longer duration global 6 meter F2 propagation may occur during the next few days if the solar flux index persist well above 200 for several days . 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 235 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 167 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday.

The visible solar disk has one growing large active region and one growing medium active region. The remaining seven active regions are small and stable or declining. There are 50 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1110 micro solar hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is declining to and remain at background levels well below 400 km/second through at least Thursday.



Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through at least Thursday. We are entering the winter solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely as during the equinox seasons.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through at least Thursday. Propagation may be mildly degraded during local nighttime hours early Tuesday if the north-south (Bz) component of the interplanetary magnetic field is oriented southwards for several hours.


M-class solar flares are likely to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Thursday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Thursday.

S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms causing increased polar absorption are unlikely through at least Thursday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Thursday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through at least Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through at least Thursday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through at least Thursday with a chance of mildly degraded intervals during local nighttime hours. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through at least Thursday with a chance of mildly degraded intervals during local nighttime hours . 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through late November due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday with a chance of mildly degraded intervals during local nighttime hours. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday with a chance of mildly degraded intervals during local nighttime hours. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.



There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z Significant improvement is possible if the solar flux index significantly exceeds 200 for several days . There is a chance enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 67 minutes later and sunset is 77 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal through at least Sunday with a chance of mildly degraded intervals during local nighttime hours if the north-south (Bz) component of the interplanetary magnetic field is oriented southwards for several hours.



HF propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through at least Sunday.



6 meter F2 propagation is expected to be unreliable, short in duration, mostly north-south and geographically focused for the next week until the more active solar hemisphere again faces the Earth and the solar flux index begins to persist well above 200 during the last two days in November and about first seven days in December.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



More widespread, more reliable and longer duration global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to resume during the last two days in November and about the first seven days in December if solar flux values persist well above 200 for at least several days . 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 170 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 115 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday.

The visible solar disk has one growing medium active region and two growing small active regions. The remaining seven active regions are small and stable. There are 48 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 520 micro solar hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to mildly elevated at levels less than 400 km/second through late Sunday, possibly briefly increasing to about 400 km/second early Saturday and early Sunday due to mild coronal hole high speed stream effects,



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through late Sunday with a chance of brief unsettled intervals early Saturday and early Sunday due to mild coronal hole high speed stream effects.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through late Sunday with a chance of mildly degraded intervals during local nighttime hours if the north-south (Bz) component of the interplanetary magnetic field is oriented southwards for several hours.

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday.

S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms are expected to cause slight polar cap absorption expected during Friday. There is a chance of S1-class radiation storms and slight polar cap absorption on Friday and a very slight chance on Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through at least Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through at least Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through at least Sunday with a chance of mildly degraded intervals during local nighttime hours. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through at least Sunday with a chance of mildly degraded intervals during local nighttime hours . 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through late November due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday with a chance of mildly degraded intervals during local nighttime hours. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday with a chance of mildly degraded intervals during local nighttime hours. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.



There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z then significantly improving during the last three days in November and about first seven days in December. There is a chance enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 64 minutes later and sunset is 76 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance of mildly degraded intervals during Thursday local nighttime hours if the north-south (Bz) component of the interplanetary magnetic field is oriented southwards for several hours.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal on Tuesday and Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Thursday.



6 meter F2 propagation is expected to be unreliable, very short in duration, mostly north-south and very geographically focused for the next week until the more active solar hemisphere again begins to face the Earth and the solar flux index begins to persist well above 200 during the last five days in November and about first seven days in December.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



More widespread, more reliable and longer duration global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to resume during the last five days in November and about the first seven days in December if solar flux values persist well above 200 for at least several days . 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 156 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 115 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday.

The visible solar disk has one decaying large active region, the remaining seven active regions are small and stable. There are 38 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 730 micro solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be near ambient levels of less than 400 km/second through Wednesday due to waning coronal hole high speed stream effects, possibly increasing to about 400 km/second during Thursday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through Wednesday with mostly quiet conditions and a chance of unsettled intervals during Thursday.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Tuesday and Wednesday but may become mildly degraded during Thursday local nighttime hours if the north-south (Bz) component of the interplanetary magnetic field is oriented southwards for several hours.


Frequent M-class solar flares are expected to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Thursday. There is a chance that X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Thursday.

S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that may cause slight polar cap absorption are not likely through Thursday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance of minor degraded intervals during Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, mostly normal on Wednesday with a chance of minor degradation during Thursday


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance of minor degradation during Thursday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance of minor degradation during Thursday . 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through late November due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance of minor degradation during Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, normal on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance of minor degradation during Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, normal on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday.



There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z then improving during the last six days in November and the first week in December. There is a chance enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 61 minutes later and sunset is 74 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal through late Sunday. Mild degradation may occur during local nighttime hours during early Saturday and early Sunday nighttime hours if the north-south (Bz) component of the interplanetary magnetic field is oriented southwards.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through late Sunday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through late Sunday.



6 meter F2 propagation is expected to be unreliable, very short in duration and very geographically focused for the next week until the more active solar hemisphere again begins to face the Earth and the solar flux index begins to persist well above 200 during the last ten days in November and the first week in December.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



More widespread, more reliable and longer duration global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to resume during the last ten days in November and the first week in December if solar flux values persist well above 200 for at least several days . 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 146 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 88 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday.

The visible solar disk has one decaying large active region, the remaining six active regions are very small and stable. There are 46 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 530 micro solar hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly enhanced at about 400 km/second through midday Sunday due to a weak high speed stream effects from a high latitude coronal hole.



Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely through midday Sunday. Mostly quiet conditions are likely after midday Sunday.



Weak coronal hole high speed stream effects are likely to mildly degrade propagation crossing auroral and polar regions during early Saturday and early Sunday local nighttime hours if the north-south (Bz) component of the interplanetary magnetic field is oriented southwards.


Frequent M-class solar flares are expected to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday. There is a chance that X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through late Sunday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through late Sunday . 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least November due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through late Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through late Sunday . 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.



There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z then improving during the last ten days in November and the first week in December. There is a chance enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 57 minutes later and sunset is 72 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal but mildly degraded during local nighttime hours through early Friday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal but mildly degraded during local nighttime hours through early Friday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Friday.



6 meter F2 propagation is expected to be less reliable, shorter in duration and more geographically focused for the next week until the more active solar hemisphere again begins to face the Earth and the solar flux index begins to persist well above 200 during the last ten days in November.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



More widespread, more reliable and longer duration global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to resume during the last ten days in November and the first week in December if solar flux values persist well above 200 for at least several days . 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 169 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Friday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 119 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Friday.

The visible solar disk has one decaying large active region and one decaying medium active region. There are 46 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 620 micro solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to remain near background levels below 400 km/second through at least midday Wednesday, then becoming mildly elevated to more than 400 km/second through early Friday due to a high latitude coronal hole high speed stream effects, gradually declining to below 400 km/second before midday Friday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through midday Wednesday. Unsettled to active conditions are likely from midday Wednesday through early Thursday. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely from midday through late Thursday. Unsettled to active conditions are likely from late Thursday through early Friday. Mostly quiet conditions are likely from early through late Friday.



Mild coronal hole high speed stream effects are likely to degrade nighttime propagation crossing auroral and polar regions from late Wednesday through early Friday.


Frequent M-class solar flares are expected to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Friday. There is a chance that X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Friday.

There is a chance that an S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storm may cause slight polar cap absorption through Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday, mostly normal on Thursday and normal on Friday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through late Wednesday, mildly degraded from late Wednesday through early Friday then improving to mostly normal through late Friday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through late Wednesday, mildly degraded from late Wednesday through early Friday then improving to mostly normal through late Friday . 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least November due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through late Wednesday, mildly degraded from late Wednesday through early Friday then improving to mostly normal through late Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Thursday and mostly normal on Friday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday, mildly degraded from early Thursday through midday Friday then improving to mostly normal through at least late Friday . 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Thursday and mostly normal on Friday.



There is a chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z during the last ten days in November and the first week in December. There is a chance enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 54 minutes later and sunset is 70 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be poor on Monday, mostly normal on Tuesday and fair on Wednesday.



Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be fair to poor on Monday, normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday



Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Frequent, long duration, geographically widespread global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to continue through late this week with the solar flux index expected to exceed 200 through Sunday. Widespread global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to resume during the last ten days in November and the first week in December if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days . 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states during the next week. More northerly mid-latitude locations need a less reliable additional above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop or an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 213 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 170 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.

The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, one stable large active region, one decaying large active region and one stable medium active region. There are 52 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1420 micro solar hemispheres (about nine times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to remain mildly elevated at about 400 km/second or more through late Tuesday. Solar wind speed is likely to increase to well above 400 km/second early Wednesday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects, gradually declining to about 400 km/second by late Wednesday.



Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely through late Tuesday. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely from early through midday Wednesday. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely to resume after midday Wednesday.



Mild coronal hole high speed stream effects are likely to degrade nighttime propagation crossing auroral and polar regions from late Monday through early Wednesday.


Frequent M-class solar flares are expected to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Wednesday. There is a chance that X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Wednesday.

There is a chance that an S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storm may cause minor polar cap absorption through Wednesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal on Monday, mostly normal on Tuesday and mildly degraded on Wednesday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be poor on Monday, mostly normal on Tuesday and fair on Wednesday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be poor on Monday, mostly normal on Tuesday and fair on Wednesday . 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least November due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal poor on Monday, mostly normal on Tuesday and fair on Wednesday . There is a chance that 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z may be mildly degraded during Tuesday and Wednesday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be poor on Monday, mostly normal on Tuesday and fair on Wednesday . There is a chance that 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z may be mildly degraded during Tuesday and Wednesday.



There is a chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z during early and late November. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, FR, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via brief intervals of above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 52 minutes later and sunset is 68 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradation during nighttime hours through Sunday.



Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through late Friday Friday, mildly degrading to mostly normal through midday Sunday then to improving normal after midday Sunday.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Frequent, longer duration and more geographically widespread global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to continue through at least early next week when sunspot activity is expected to decline for about a week. Widespread global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to resume during late November and early December if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days . 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states during the next week. More northerly mid-latitude locations need a less reliable additional above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop or an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 238 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 215 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday.

The visible solar disk has two growing large active regions, two stable medium active regions and two decaying medium active regions. There are 84 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area is 1900 micro solar hemispheres (about 11 times the surface area of the Earth).


Solar wind speed is likely to remain at near background levels less than 400 km/second or less through late Friday. Solar wind speed is likely to increase above 400 km/second during Saturday and Sunday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through late Friday. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely from early Friday through midday Sunday. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely to resume after midday Sunday.



Mild coronal hole high speed stream effects are likely to mildly degrade nighttime propagation crossing auroral and polar regions from early Saturday through midday Sunday.


Frequent M-class solar flares are expected to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday. There is a chance that X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday.

There is a chance that an S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storm may cause minor polar cap absorption through Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be normal on Friday, mostly normal on Saturday and normal on Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradation during nighttime hours through Sunday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradation during nighttime hours through Sunday . 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least November due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradation during nighttime hours through Sunday . There is a chance that 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z may be mildly degraded during Saturday and Sunday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with possible mild degradation during nighttime hours through Sunday . There is a chance that 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z may be mildly degraded during Saturday and Sunday.



There is a chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z during early November and late November. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via brief intervals of above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 49 minutes later and sunset is 66 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Mostly normal propagation is likely through at least Saturday.



A likely glancing blow by a CME may mildly degrade propagation crossing polar and auroral regions during nighttime hours late Wednesday through early Thursday. Propagation is likely to improve to mostly normal from about midday Friday through midday Saturday.



Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through late Saturday.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Frequent, longer duration and more geographically widespread global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to continue through at least early next week and during late November through early December if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days . 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states during the next week. More northerly mid-latitude locations need a less reliable additional above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop or an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 244 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 210 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

The visible solar disk has two growing large active regions, one stable large active region, one growing medium active region and one decaying medium active region. There are 75 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area is 1650 micro solar hemispheres (about ten times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to remain at about 400 km/second or less through Friday. There is a chance that the solar wind speed will increase to above 400 km/second during Saturday



Mostly unsettled geomagnetic conditions with active intervals are likely from early Thursday through midday Friday. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely from midday to late Friday. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely from early to late Friday.



There is a chance that a glancing blow from a CME may trigger a brief minor geomagnetic storm early Thursday with mild coronal hole high speed stream effects lasting through Saturday.

Frequent M-class solar flares are expected to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday. There is a chance that X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday.

There is a chance that an S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storm may cause minor polar cap absorption through Saturday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal until late Thursday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Thursday through early Friday and mostly normal from midday Friday through late Saturday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal until late Thursday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Thursday through early Friday and mostly normal from midday Friday through late Saturday . 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least November due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal until late Thursday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Thursday through early Friday and mostly normal from midday Friday through late Saturday . There is a chance that 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z may be mildly degraded through Saturday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal until late Thursday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Thursday through early Friday and mostly normal from midday Friday through late Saturday . There is a chance that 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z may be mildly degraded through Saturday.



There is a chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z during early November and late November. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via brief intervals of above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 47 minutes later and sunset is 64 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Some of the best HF and 6 meter F2 propagation of Solar Cycle 24 is likely to continue for the next week



Propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal through at least late Sunday



Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through at least late Sunday.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



More frequent, longer duration and more geographically widespread global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely through this weekend and continuing through next week and again during late November if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days . 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states during the next week. More northerly mid-latitude locations need a less reliable additional above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop or an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 297 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday.

The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 297 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday.

The visible solar disk has two growing large active regions, two growing medium active regions, one stable medium active region and two decaying medium active regions. There are 77 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area is 2320 micro solar hemispheres (about 14 times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to remain above 400 km/second through Sunday.

Frequent M-class solar flares are expected to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday. There is a chance that X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday.

The ongoing S1 minor solar energetic particle radiation storm and associated minor polar cap absorption is likely to end during Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday . Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday . 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday . 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday . 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.



There is a chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z during early and late November. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via brief intervals of above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 40 minutes later and sunset is 58 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.