The Wednesday May 22nd W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX . All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 195 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php ]
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 167 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.
[ https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The visible solar disk has one very large, two large, three small and three very small active regions containing 56 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1020 micro solar hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth).
[ https://www.solarham.net/regions.htm | www.solarham.net/regions.htm ]
Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels of about 400 km/second through Thursday.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet on Wednesday degrading to mostly quiet on Thursday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections ]
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes | www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes ]
Isolated M-class solar flares are expected to cause minor to moderate radio blackouts through Thursday, mildly degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for tens of minutes during each event.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts ]
There is a slight chance that weak solar radiation storms may mildly degrade HF propagation crossing polar regions through Thursday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm ]
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be normal after 0015Z Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday .
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday . 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday . 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be normal on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday . 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday. Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen available for daytime ionization degrading daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation in the northern hemisphere from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: [ http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf | http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf ]
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 82 minutes earlier and sunset is 62 minutes later than on March 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
[ https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-ac...aurora-updates | earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates ]
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s latest space weather news is posted at
[ https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov | twitter.com/TamithaSkov ]
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
[ https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html | https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html ]
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at [ http://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php ]
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at [ https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png/ | https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png ]
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at [ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated ]
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | www.hamqsl.com/solar.html ]
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
[ https://prop.kc2g.com/ | https://prop.kc2g.com ]
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength , solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot ]
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at [ http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest | http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest ]
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
[ https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index | https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index ]
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion | www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion ]
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
[ http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 | www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1 ]
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
[ http://dx.qsl.net/propagation | http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [ http://www.solarham.com/ | www.solarham.com ]
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The Tuesday May 21st W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .
All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 194 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php ]
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 143 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.
[ https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The visible solar disk has one very large, four large and one very small active region containing 64 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 840 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
[ https://www.solarham.net/regions.htm | www.solarham.net/regions.htm ]
Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels of about 400 km/second or less through Wednesday.
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled on Tuesday improving to mostly quiet on Wednesday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections ]
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes | www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes ]
Isolated M-class solar flares are expected to cause minor to moderate radio blackouts through Wednesday, mildly degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for tens of minutes during each event.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts ]
There is a slight chance that weak solar radiation storms may mildly degrade HF propagation crossing polar regions through Wednesday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm ]
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be normal after 0015Z Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and normal on Wednesday .
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday improving to normal on Wednesday . 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday improving to normal on Wednesday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday improving to normal on Wednesday . 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday improving to normal on Wednesday.
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday improving to normal on Wednesday . 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday improving to normal on Wednesday. Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen available for daytime ionization degrading daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation in the northern hemisphere from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: [ http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf | http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf ]
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 82 minutes earlier and sunset is 61 minutes later than on March 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
[ https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-ac...aurora-updates | earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates ]
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s latest space weather news is posted at
[ https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov | twitter.com/TamithaSkov ]
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
[ https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html | https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html ]
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at [ http://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php ]
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at [ https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png/ | https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png ]
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at [ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated ]
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | www.hamqsl.com/solar.html ]
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
[ https://prop.kc2g.com/ | https://prop.kc2g.com ]
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength , solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot ]
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at [ http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest | http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest ]
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
[ https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index | https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index ]
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion | www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion ]
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
[ http://dx.qsl.net/propagation | http://dx.qsl.net/propagation ] and [ http://www.solarham.com/ | www.solarham.com
Leave a comment:
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Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Thursday.
Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.
Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be moderately degraded on Wednesday and mildly degraded on Thursday.
__________________________________________________ _____________
The Wednesday May 15th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX . All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 208 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php ]
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 186 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.
[ https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The visible solar disk has four large, two small and six very small active regions containing 65 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 860 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
[ https://www.solarham.net/regions.htm | www.solarham.net/regions.htm ]
Solar wind speed is likely to be moderately elevated at about 500 km/second or more through Thursday due to influences of multiple CMEs and a coronal hole high speed stream.
Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic activity is likely through Thursday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections ]
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes | www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes ]
M-class solar flares are expected to cause minor to moderate radio blackouts through Wednesday with a slight chance on Thursday, mildly degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for tens of minutes during each event. There is a chance of strong radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares on Wednesday and a very slight chance on Thursday, causing moderately to strongly degrading propagation crossing large portions of the sunlit side of the Earth – most severe when crossing near the sub-solar point – with a duration of about an hour during each event.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts ]
Weak solar radiation storms are expected to mildly to moderately degrade HF propagation crossing polar regions on Wednesday, with a slight chance on Thursday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm ]
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be mostly normal after 0015Z Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday .
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded on Wednesday and mildly degraded on Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded on Wednesday and mildly degraded on Thursday..
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded on Wednesday and mildly degraded on Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to moderately degraded on Wednesday and mildly degraded on Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen available for daytime ionization degrading daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0200Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: [ http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf | http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf ]
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 76 minutes earlier and sunset is 56 minutes later than on March 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
[ https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-ac...aurora-updates | earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates ]
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s latest space weather news is posted at
[ https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov | twitter.com/TamithaSkov ]
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
[ https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html | https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html ]
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at [ http://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php ]
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at [ https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png/ | https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png ]
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at [ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated ]
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | www.hamqsl.com/solar.html ]
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
[ https://prop.kc2g.com/ | https://prop.kc2g.com ]
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength , solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot ]
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at [ http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest | http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest ]
Leave a comment:
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Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal but moderately degraded from midday Tuesday through early Wednesday.
Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal but moderately degraded from midday Tuesday through early Wednesday.
Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded but moderately degraded from midday Tuesday through early Wednesday.
__________________________________________________ _____________
The Tuesday May 14th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX . All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 212 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php ]
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 225 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.
[ https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The visible solar disk has one giant, two large, three small and six very small active regions containing 77 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1800 micro solar hemispheres (about 11 times the surface area of the Earth).
[ https://www.solarham.net/regions.htm | www.solarham.net/regions.htm ]
Solar wind speed is likely to be moderately elevated at about 500 km/second or less through late Tuesday but increasing to 500 km/second or more from late Tuesday through early Wednesday due to influences of multiple CMEs
Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic activity is likely through late Wednesday. Minor to moderate geomagnetic storms are expected from midday Tuesday through early Wednesday. There is a chance of strong geomagnetic storms late Tuesday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections ]
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes | www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes ]
Frequent M-class solar flares are expected to cause frequent minor to moderate radio blackouts through early Wednesday, mildly degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for tens of minutes during each event. Strong radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares are likely late Tuesday causing moderately to strongly degrading propagation crossing large portions of the sunlit side of the Earth – most severe when crossing near the sub-solar point – with a duration of about an hour during each event.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts ]
Weak solar radiation storms are expected to mildly to moderately degrade HF propagation crossing polar regions through late Tuesday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm ]
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be moderately degraded after 0015Z Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday .
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal but mildly to moderately degraded from midday Tuesday through early Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal but mildly to moderately degraded from midday Tuesday through early Wednesday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal but mildly to moderately degraded from midday Tuesday through early Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be moderately degraded improving to mildly degraded after midday Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be moderately degraded improving to mildly degraded on Wednesday. Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen available for daytime ionization degrading daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0200Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: [ http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf | http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf ]
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 75 minutes earlier and sunset is 55 minutes later than on March 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
[ https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-ac...aurora-updates | earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates ]
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s 7 May Space Weather Live Briefing is posted at
[ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDEWbYqyNAo | www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDEWbYqyNAo ]
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
[ https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html | https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html ]
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at [ http://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php ]
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at [ https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png/ | https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png ]
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at [ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated ]
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | www.hamqsl.com/solar.html ]
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Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Tuesday.
Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.
Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be moderately degraded, improving to mildly degraded by late Tuesday.
__________________________________________________ _____________
The Monday May 13th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX . All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 222 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday.
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php ]
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 186 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday.
[ https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The visible solar disk has one giant, one large and four small active regions containing 66 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 2460 micro solar hemispheres (about 15 times the surface area of the Earth).
[ https://www.solarham.net/regions.htm | www.solarham.net/regions.htm ]
Solar wind speed is likely to be moderately elevated at about 700 km/second or less through late Monday gradually declining to about 500 km/second by late Tuesday due to the waning effects of multiple Earth directed CMEs
Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic activity is likely through Tuesday. Minor to severe geomagnetic storms are expected through early Tuesday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections ]
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes | www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes ]
Frequent M-class solar flares are expected to cause frequent minor to moderate radio blackouts through Tuesday, mildly degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for tens of minutes during each event. Strong radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares are likely during Monday causing moderately to strongly degrading propagation crossing large portions of the sunlit side of the Earth – most severe when crossing near the sub-solar point – with a duration of about an hour during each event.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts ]
Weak solar radiation storms are likely to mildly degrade HF propagation crossing polar regions through Tuesday.
[ https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm ]
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be moderately degraded after 0015Z Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be moderately degraded improving to mildly degraded on Tuesday .
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded improving to mildly degraded after midday Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded improving to mildly degraded after midday Tuesday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be moderately degraded improving to mildly degraded after midday Tuesday . 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be moderately degraded improving to mildly degraded on Tuesday.
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be moderately degraded improving to mildly degraded after midday Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be moderately degraded improving to mildly degraded on Tuesday. Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0200Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: [ http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf | http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf ]
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 74 minutes earlier and sunset is 54 minutes later than on March 20th . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
[ https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-ac...aurora-updates | earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates ]
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s 7 May Space Weather Live Briefing is posted at
[ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDEWbYqyNAo | www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDEWbYqyNAo ]
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
[ https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html | https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html ]
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at [ http://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png | www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png ]
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
[ http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php | http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php ]
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at [ https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png/ | https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png ]
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at [ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422 ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated ]
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
[ https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated | https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated ]
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
[ http://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html | www.hamqsl.com/solar.html ]
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
[ https://prop.kc2g.com/ | https://prop.kc2g.com ]
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength , solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
[ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot | http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot ]
\Leave a comment:
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Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be mostly normal, becoming moderately degraded from late Friday through midday Saturday, improving to mildly degraded through early Sunday, further improving to mostly normal through late Sunday.
Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal, becoming moderately degraded from late Friday through late Saturday, improving to mildly degraded through midday Sunday, further improving to mostly normal through late Sunday.
Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal, becoming severely degraded from late Friday through late Saturday, then improving to moderately degraded by midday Sunday.
__________________________________________________ _____________
The Friday May 10th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 234 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 192 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday.
www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has two very large, one large, three small and one very small active region containing 100 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1680 micro solar hemispheres (about ten times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated at about 500 km/second or less through late Friday becoming moderately enhanced to more than 500 km/second through late Saturday due to the effects of multiple Earth directed CMEs, gradually declining to below 500 km/second by midday Sunday.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Unsettled to active geomagnetic activity is likely through late Friday. Minor to severe geomagnetic storms are expected from late Friday through midday Saturday. Minor to moderate geomagnetic storms are expected from midday Saturday through midday Sunday. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely after midday Sunday,
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
Frequent M-class solar flares are expected to cause frequent minor to moderate radio blackouts through Sunday, mildly degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for tens of minutes during each event. Strong radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares are highly likely during Friday and Saturday causing moderately to strongly degrading propagation crossing large portions of the sunlit side of the Earth – most severe when crossing near the sub-solar point – with a duration of about an hour during each event.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts
Weak solar radiation storms are likely to mildly degrade HF propagation crossing polar regions through Saturday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through late Friday, moderately degraded through midday Saturday, mildly degraded through late Saturday, then improving to normal through Sunday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be moderately degraded after 0015Z Saturday and Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday, severely degraded on Saturday then improving to mostly normal by midday Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through late Friday, severely degraded through midday Saturday, moderately degraded through early Sunday then improving to mostly normal by midday Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through late Friday, severely degraded through midday Saturday, moderately degraded through early Sunday then improving to mostly normal by midday Sunday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through late Friday, severely degraded through midday Saturday, moderately degraded through early Sunday then improving to mostly normal by midday Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday, severely degraded on Saturday and moderately degraded on Sunday.
12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal through late Friday, severely degraded through midday Saturday, moderately degraded through early Sunday then improving to mostly normal by midday Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday, severely degraded on Saturday and moderately degraded on Sunday. Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0200Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 72 minutes earlier and sunset is 52 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s 7 May Space Weather Live Briefing is posted at
www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDEWbYqyNAo
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
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Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Friday.
Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal but mildly degrading after midday Friday.
Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal but significantly degrading after midday Friday
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The Thursday May 9th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.
All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 263 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.
www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 153 and is likely to significantly increase through Friday.
www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has two very large, one large, two small and one very small active region containing 82 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1890 micro solar hemispheres (about eleven times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated at about 500 km/second or less becoming strongly enhanced to more than 500 km/second after midday Friday due to effects of two Earth directed CMEs.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic activity is likely through midday Thursday, degrading to unsettled to active through midday Friday. Minor geomagnetic storm conditions are likely after midday Friday with a chance of a strong geomagnetic storm.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
Frequent M-class solar flares are expected to cause frequent minor to moderate radio blackouts through Friday, mildly degrading propagation crossing near the sub-solar point on the sunlit side of the Earth for tens of minutes during each event. Strong radio blackouts are likely through Friday caused by X-class solar flares moderately to strongly degrading propagation crossing large portions of the sunlit side of the Earth – most severe near the sub-solar point – with a duration of about an hour during each event.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-flares-radio-blackouts
There is a chance that weak solar radiation storms may mildly degrade HF propagation crossing polar regions through Friday.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-radiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be mostly normal after 0000Z Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday and moderately degraded on Friday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal but becoming significantly degraded after midday Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
Excellent worldwide 20 meter propagation is likely throughout Thursday night but becoming significantly degrading after midday Friday. Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal but becoming significantly degraded after midday Friday. Propagation crossing northern high latitude regions is enhanced by the very brief hours of darkness in the northern high latitude F2 region from May through July.
Excellent worldwide 17 and 15 meter propagation is likely throughout Thursday night but becoming significantly degraded after midday Friday. Propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal but degrading significantly after midday Friday. Propagation crossing northern high latitude regions is enhanced by the very brief hours of darkness in the northern high latitude F2 region from May through July. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday but moderately degraded on Friday.
Excellent worldwide 12 and 10 meter propagation is likely through about midnight Thursday. Excellent propagation is likely early Friday becoming significantly degraded after midday Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday but moderately degraded on Friday. Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0200Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 70 minutes earlier and sunset is 51 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s 7 May Space Weather Live Briefing is posted at
www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDEWbYqyNAo
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png
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X-class solar flares moderately to strongly degrade propagation crossing large portions of the sunlit side of the Earth – most severe near the sub-solar point --for about an hour.
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Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through Wednesday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal after midday Wednesday.
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The Tuesday May 7th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 202 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 191 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.
www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has two large, one moderate, two small and four very small active regions containing 58 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1470 micro solar hemispheres (about nine times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be moderately elevated at 500 km/second or more, improving to about 450 km/second or less after midday Wednesday.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Mostly quiet to unsettled are likely through midday Wednesday, improving to mostly quiet through late Wednesday. There is a chance of isolated minor geomagnetic storm conditions early Tuesday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
Minor to moderate radio blackouts are expected through Wednesday caused by M-class solar flares mildly and briefly degrading propagation crossing much of the sunlit side of the Earth. There is a high chance of strong radio blackouts through Wednesday caused by X-class solar flares moderately to strongly degrading propagation crossing most of the sunlit side of the Earth for as much as an hour.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts
There is a chance that weak solar radiation storms may mildly degrade HF propagation crossing polar regions through Wednesday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be normal after 0000Z Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal after midday Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal after midday Wednesday.. Propagation crossing northern high latitude regions is enhanced by the very brief hours of darkness in the northern high latitude F2 region from May through July.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal after midday Wednesday. Propagation crossing northern high latitude regions is enhanced by the very brief hours of darkness in the northern high latitude F2 region from May through July. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal after midday Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday. Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0200Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 68 minutes earlier and sunset is 49 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s Space Weather Briefing is posted on Wednesdays at
www.patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.com
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Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal. Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded then mostly normal after midday Monday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be moderately degraded then mostly normal after midday Monday.
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The Monday May 6th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 165 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday.
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 165 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday.
www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has two large, two moderate, three small and two very small active regions containing 62 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1540 micro solar hemispheres (about nine times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated at about 450 km/second or more, improving to about 400 km/second or less after midday Tuesday.
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions are likely through midday Monday, improving to mostly unsettled to active through midday Tuesday, then mostly quiet to unsettled through late Tuesday. There is a slight chance of strong to severe geomagnetic storm conditions early Monday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/c...mass-ejections
www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
Minor to moderate radio blackouts are expected through Tuesday caused by M-class solar flares affecting propagation crossing the sunlit side of the Earth. There is a chance of strong radio blackouts through Tuesday caused by X-class solar flares affecting propagation crossing the sunlit side of the Earth.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adio-blackouts
There is a slight chance that solar radiation storms may mildly degrade HF propagation crossing polar regions through Tuesday.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/s...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be mostly normal after 0000Z Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded though midday Monday then improving to mostly normal through late Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded though midday Monday then improving to mostly normal through late Tuesday. Propagation crossing northern high latitude regions is enhanced by the very brief hours of darkness in the northern high latitude F2 region from May through July.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded though midday Monday then improving to mostly normal through late Tuesday. Propagation crossing northern high latitude regions is enhanced by the very brief hours of darkness in the northern high latitude F2 region from May through July. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded though midday Monday then improving to mostly normal through late Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday. Thermally driven high velocity winds in the summer F2 region blowing from the dayside hemisphere to the nightside hemisphere reduce the volume of neutral oxygen available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0200Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 67 minutes earlier and sunset is 48 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Dr. Tamitha Skov’s Space Weather Briefing is posted on Wednesdays at
www.patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated every day at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.go-index.png
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.com
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