Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through Friday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through midday Friday then normal through late Friday.
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The Thursday April 18th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 216 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Friday.
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 207 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Friday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one large, two medium, seven small and two very small active regions containing 79 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1150 micro solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be slightly enhanced at about 400 km/second or less through midday Friday due to effects of multiple weak CMEs then declining to near background levels
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled to active on Thursday due to effects of multiple weak CMEs, improving to mostly quiet to unsettled through midday Friday, and further improving to quiet through late Friday. There is a chance of a minor geomagnetic storm before midday Thursday due to CME effects.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
Minor to moderate radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth caused by M-class solar flares are likely through Friday. There is a slight chance of strong radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Friday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts
There is a slight chance that minor solar radiation storms may affect HF propagation crossing polar regions through Friday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be mostly normal after 0000Z Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Thursday and normal on Friday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday with a chance of mild degradations early Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday with a chance of mild degradations early Thursday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday with a chance of mild degradations early Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Thursday and normal on Friday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Friday with a chance of mild degradations early Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Thursday and normal on Friday. High altitude thermally driven summer winds blowing from the dayside F2 region to the nightside F2 region reduce the volume of neutral molecular oxygen available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 44 minutes earlier and sunset is 32 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
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HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Thursday. HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. HF propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours through Thursday
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The Thursday April 17th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 198 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday.
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 182 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has two large, two medium, four small and three very small active regions containing 66 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1200 micro solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be slightly enhanced at about 400 km/second or less through Thursday due to effects of multiple weak CMEs.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled to active through Thursday due to effects of multiple weak CMEs. There is a chance of a minor geomagnetic storm before midday Thursday due to CME effects.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
Minor to moderate radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth caused by M-class solar flares are likely through Thursday. There is a slight chance of strong radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Thursday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts
There is a very slight chance of minor solar radiation storms that may affect HF propagation crossing polar regions through Thursday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be mildly degraded after 0000Z Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday and mildly degraded on Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours through Thursday, 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours through Thursday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours through Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday with possible mild degradation on Thursday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday with possible mild degradation on Thursday. High altitude thermally driven summer winds blowing from the dayside to the nightside F2 region of the ionosphere reduce the volume of neutral molecular oxygen available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation from late spring through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 43 minutes earlier and sunset is 31 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
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HF propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through Wednesday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours through Wednesday.
__________________________________________________ _____________
The Tuesday April 16th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX.
All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 191 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Wednesday.
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was unavailable.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one large, two medium, five small and three very small active regions containing 83 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1070 micro solar hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be weakly enhanced at about 400 km/second or more through Wednesday due to effects of multiple weak CMEs.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled to active through Wednesday due to effects of multiple weak CMEs. There is a chance of a minor geomagnetic storm late Wednesday due to CME effects.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
Minor to moderate radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth caused by M-class solar flares are likely through Wednesday. No strong radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares are expected through Wednesday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts
There is a very slight chance of minor solar radiation storms that may affect HF propagation crossing polar regions through Wednesday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be normal after 0000Z Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations through Wednesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours through Wednesday, 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours through Wednesday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours through Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of mild degradations during local nighttime hours through Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. High altitude spring and summer winds blowing from the dayside to the nightside F2 region of the ionosphere reduce the volume of molecular oxygen available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation from May through September.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK4, VK9, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 41 minutes earlier and sunset is 30 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
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HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal. Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal improving to normal on Tuesday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded improving to mostly normal after midday Monday.
__________________________________________________ _____________
The April 3rd W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 184 remaining mostly unchanged through Tuesday.
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 166 remaining mostly unchanged through Tuesday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has two medium, six small and two very small active regions containing 52 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 770 micro solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be weakly enhanced at 400 km/second or more through midday Monday due to CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects, gradually declining to less than 400 km/second after midday Monday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to reach active to minor storm conditions through midday Monday due to coronal hole high speed stream and CME effects, improving to quiet to unsettled conditions through early Tuesday, further improving to quiet conditions through late Tuesday,
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
There is a chance of weak or minor radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth caused by M-class solar flares through Tuesday. No strong radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares are expected through Tuesday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts
No solar radiation storms affecting HF propagation crossing polar regions are expected through Tuesday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia is likely to be mostly normal after 0000Z Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded during local nighttime hours through midday Monday, improving to mostly normal through midday Tuesday and improving to normal after midday Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded during local nighttime hours through midday Monday, improving to mostly normal through midday Tuesday and improving to normal after midday Tuesday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded during local nighttime hours through midday Monday, improving to mostly normal through midday Tuesday and improving to normal after midday Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mildly degraded during local nighttime hours through midday Monday, improving to mostly normal through midday Tuesday and improving to normal after midday Tuesday.. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. Spring and summer winds blowing from the dayside to the nightside ionosphere reduce the volume of molecular oxygen available for daytime ionization causing degraded daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation from May through September.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 41 minutes earlier and sunset is 33 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
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HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal through Sunday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of moderate degradation between about 0600Z and 1200Z Sunday.
__________________________________________________ _____________
The April 3rd W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 150 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Sunday.
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 89 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Sunday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has five medium size active regions containing 31 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 560 micro solar hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be weakly enhanced at about 400 km/second through midday Saturday, then slightly increasing to about 450 km/second through about 0600Z Sunday due to weak coronal hole high speed stream effects. There is a chance that a glancing blow by a CME may mildly enhance solar wind speed to about 500 km/second or more between about 0600Z and 1200Z Sunday, then gradually weakening through late Sunday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet through midday Saturday then slightly degrading to mostly quiet conditions through about 0600Z Sunday due to weak coronal hole high speed stream effects. Active conditions are likely from about 0600Z to 1200Z Sunday due to a possible glancing blow by a CME. There is a slight chance of an isolated weak geomagnetic storm between about 0600Z to 1200Z Sunday due to a possible glancing blow by a CME.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
There is a slight chance of weak or minor radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth caused by M-class solar flares through Sunday. No strong radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares are expected through Sunday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts
No solar radiation storms affecting HF propagation crossing polar regions are expected through Sunday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 0000Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0930Z is likely to be mostly normal on Friday and Saturday and moderately degraded on Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of moderate degradation during local nighttime house from about 0600Z to 1200Z Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of moderate degradation during local nighttime hours from about 0600Z to 1200Z Sunday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of moderate degradation during local nighttime hours from about 0600Z to 1200Z Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Friday and Saturday and moderately degraded on Sunday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of moderate degradation during local nighttime hours from about 0600Z to 1200Z Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Friday and Saturday and moderately degraded on Sunday. Late spring and summer high altitude winds in the daytime ionosphere will increasingly degrade daytime 12 and 10 meter long distance F2 propagation through late summer.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 38 minutes earlier and sunset is 31 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
Leave a comment:
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HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal through Friday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation during local nighttime hours late Thursday through early Friday.
__________________________________________________ _____________
The April 3rd W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 119 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Friday.
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...ux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 49 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Friday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one small and two very small active regions containing five sunspots with a total sunspot area of 76 micro solar hemispheres (about half of the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be moderately enhanced at up to about 500 km/second due to coronal hole high speed stream effects from late Wednesday through Friday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled with a chance of active geomagnetic conditions from late Wednesday through early Friday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects through Friday. There is a chance of a minor geomagnetic storm from late Thursday through early Friday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days and auroras are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
earthsky.org/sun/aurora-season-auroras-equinox-connection
There is a slight chance of weak or minor radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth caused by M-class solar flares through Friday. No strong radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares are likely through Friday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts
No solar radiation storms affecting radio propagation crossing polar regions are likely through Friday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2330Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation on Wednesday and Thursday improving to mostly normal on Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation during local nighttime hours from late Thursday through early Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation during local nighttime hours from late Thursday through early Friday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation during local nighttime hours from late Thursday through early Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation during local nighttime hours from late Thursday through early Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 22 minutes earlier and sunset is 14 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
EarthSky’s Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
UK Met Office’s EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
UK Met Office’s Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
UK Met Office’s Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.netLeave a comment:
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HF Propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal through Thursday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation during local nighttime hours late Thursday.
__________________________________________________ _____________
The April 2nd W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 119 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday.
www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forecast-prevision/solar-solaire/solarflux/sx-4-en.php
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 63 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one small and three very small active regions containing ten sunspots with a total sunspot area of 112 micro solar hemispheres (about 2/3 the surface area of the Earth).
www.solarham.net/regions.htm
Solar wind speed is likely to be moderately enhanced at up to about 500 km/second due to coronal hole high speed stream effects through Thursday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet to unsettled with a chance of active geomagnetic activity due to coronal hole high speed stream effects through Thursday. There is a slight chance of a minor geomagnetic storm late Thursday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days and auroras are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
earthsky.org/sun/aurora-season-auroras-equinox-connection
There is a slight chance of weak or minor radio blackouts on the sunlit side of the Earth caused by M-class solar flares through Thursday. No strong radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares are likely through Thursday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-flares-radio-blackouts
No solar radiation storms affecting radio propagation crossing polar regions are likely through Thursday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-radiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2330Z is likely to be normal on Tuesday degrading to mostly normal on Wednesday with a chance of mild degradation on Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostlynormal through Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation with a chance of minor degradation during local nighttime hours late Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation during local nighttime hours late Thursday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation during local nighttime hours late Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of minor degradation during local nighttime hours late Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 20 minutes earlier and sunset is 13 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
Leave a comment:
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HF Propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal through Sunday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with periods of minor degradation mostly during local nighttime hours through Sunday.
__________________________________________________ _____________
The March 29th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 171 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged on Friday and Saturday declining to about 155 on Sunday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-emissions
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 100 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged on Friday and Saturday declining to about 90 on Sunday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one very large, two small and two very small active regions containing 51 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1150 micro solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/sunspotssolar-cycle
Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels at about 400 km/second or less with periods of weak enhancement through Sunday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet with isolated unsettled intervals through Sunday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days and auroras are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
earthsky.org/sun/aurora-season-auroras-equinox-connection
Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are expected on Friday and Saturday. There is a chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares on Friday and Saturday,
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts
There is a chance that minor solar radiation storms accelerated from very large solar region 3615 by solar flares and their associated CMEs may cause mostly below normal propagation crossing polar regions on Friday and Saturday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2330Z is likely to be normal through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Friday and Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal on Friday and Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 16 minutes earlier and sunset is 10 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
The EarthSky Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
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HF Propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal through Saturday while propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be normal on Thursday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Saturday.
__________________________________________________ _____________
The March 28th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 174 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Friday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-emissions
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 111 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Friday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one very large, one large, one small and three very small active regions containing 54 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1270 micro solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/sunspotssolar-cycle
Solar wind speed is likely to steadily decline to less than 500 km/second on Thursday and to background levels less than 400 km/second on Friday and Saturday as CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects continue to wane.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet on Thursday with isolated unsettled intervals on Friday and Saturday due to minor coronal hole high speed stream effects.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days and auroras are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
earthsky.org/sun/aurora-season-auroras-equinox-connection
Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are expected through Friday. There is a chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Friday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts
There is a chance that minor solar radiation storms accelerated from very large solar region 3615 by solar flares and their associated CMEs may cause mostly below normal propagation crossing polar regions through Saturday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Saturday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2330Z is likely to be normal on Thursday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Saturday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Saturday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to normal on Thursday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to normal through Saturday.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 13 minutes earlier and sunset is 8 minutes later than on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
The EarthSky Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
-
HF Propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal through Friday while propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday, normal on Thursday and mostly normal on Friday.
__________________________________________________ _____________
The March 27th W3LPL propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 177 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Friday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-emissions
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 142 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday.
https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The visible solar disk has one very large, one large, two small and four very small active regions containing 69 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1480 micro solar hemispheres (about eight times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/sunspotssolar-cycle
Solar wind speed is likely to decline to less than 500 km/second before midday Wednesday and less than 400 km/second on Thursday and Friday as CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects wane.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-wind
Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet on Wednesday, quiet on Thursday and mostly quiet on Friday as CME and coronal hole high speed stream effects wane.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...mass-ejections
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-holes
We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days and auroras are almost twice as likely and geomagnetic disturbances are longer in duration than during the solstice seasons.
earthsky.org/sun/aurora-season-auroras-equinox-connection
Minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are expected through Thursday. There is a chance of strong daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Thursday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adio-blackouts
There is a chance that minor solar radiation storms accelerated from very large solar region 3615 by solar flares and their associated CMEs may cause mostly below normal propagation crossing polar regions through Friday.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/...adiation-storm
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2330Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday and Thursday and mostly normal on Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal through Friday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday and Thursday and mostly normal on Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday and Thursday and mostly normal on Friday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday and Thursday and mostly normal on Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday.
12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to normal on Wednesday and Thursday and mostly normal on Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to mostly normal through Friday.
There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation may be skewed towards the equator. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, VK, ZL and ZL7) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 12 minutes earlier and sunset is 7 minutes later than they were on March 20th. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the absorbing D region.
The EarthSky Sun News is published daily at
earthsky.org/sun/sun-news-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates
Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at
https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated frequently at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2100 and 2300Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php
SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
The UK Met Office EUHFORIA solar wind report and forecast is updated daily at https://swe.ssa.esa.int/DOCS/portal_...#1708014964422
The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated
The UK Met Office Solar Wind Forecast and CME Arrival Prediction is updated regularly at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/metoffice-enlil-e-federated
N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com
SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot
SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest
GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ecast-kp-index
SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at
www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at
http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
Leave a comment: