W3LPL Propagation forecast

[4L5A]

Low and mid latitude propagation is likely to be normal through Wednesday. High latitude propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday October 11th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 17 minutes later and sunset is 27 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 169 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, three medium and four tiny active regions containing 49 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 495 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Wednesday.

Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels of about 350 km/second through midday Tuesday slightly increasing to about 400 km/second from midday Tuesday through Wednesday.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through midday Tuesday then mildly degrading to quiet to unsettled from midday Tuesday through Wednesday. There is a slight chance of isolated active geomagnetic conditions and a very slight chance of a minor geomagnetic storm during Wednesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to normal through Wednesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Tuesday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Tuesday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Wednesday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Tuesday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be normal through midday Tuesday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

We are in the autumnal equinox season when disturbed geomagnetic conditions are more likely, more severe and longer lasting than during the solstice seasons.

There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 166 through Wednesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

Low and mid latitude propagation is likely to be normal through Tuesday. High latitude propagation is likely to be normal with a chance of isolated below normal intervals during local night time hours late Tuesday October 10th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 16 minutes later and sunset is 26 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 148 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, two medium and six tiny active regions containing 59 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 570 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Tuesday.

Solar wind speed is likely to be at background levels of about 325 km/second through midday Tuesday gradually increasing to less than 400 km/second by late Tuesday.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through at midday Tuesday mildly degrading to quiet to unsettled by late Tuesday. There is a slight chance of isolated active geomagnetic conditions late Tuesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to normal through Tuesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of isolated below normal intervals during local night time hours late Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of isolated below normal intervals during local night time hours late Tuesday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of isolated below normal intervals during local night time hours late Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals during local night time hours through early Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

We are in the autumnal equinox season when disturbed geomagnetic conditions are much more likely, more severe and longer lasting than during the solstice seasons.

There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 158 through Tuesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

Low and mid latitude propagation is likely to be normal through Sunday. High latitude propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals during local night time hours through early Sunday October 8th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 14 minutes later and sunset is 24 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Today’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is 169 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, two medium and six tiny active regions containing 79 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 580 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Sunday.

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated at about 500 km/second through early Sunday improving to about 400 km/second through late Sunday.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely through early Sunday improving to mostly quiet through late Sunday. There is a slight chance of active geomagnetic conditions and isolated minor geomagnetic storms through late Saturday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals during local night time hours early Sunday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals during local night time hours through early Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals during local night time hours through early Sunday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals during local night time hours through early Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal with a chance of below normal intervals during local night time hours through early Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

We are in the autumnal equinox season when active and geomagnetic storm conditions are much more likely and more severe than during the solstice seasons.

There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 155 through Sunday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing low, mid and high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through Friday October 6th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 12 minutes later and sunset is 20 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Today’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is 159 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Friday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, four medium and three tiny active regions containing 71 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 630 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Friday.

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated at about 450 km/second through Friday.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely through Friday.
There is a chance of active geomagnetic conditions and a slight chance of isolated minor geomagnetic storm conditions through Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

We are in the autumnal equinox season when disturbed geomagnetic conditions are much more likely, more severe and longer lasting than during the solstice seasons.

There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 155 through Friday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal and propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday October 4th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 11 minutes later and sunset is 18 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Today’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is 153 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has five medium and four tiny active regions containing 60 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 530 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Thursday.

Solar wind speed is likely to be at or near background levels of 400 km/second or less through Thursday.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected on Thursday. Mostly unsettled to active conditions are expected on Wednesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.

We are in the autumnal equinox season when disturbed geomagnetic conditions are much more likely and more severe than during the solstice seasons.

There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 160 through Thursday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal and propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday October 3rd by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is ten minutes later and sunset is 18 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Today’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is 175 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has two large, three medium and four tiny active regions containing 56 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 810 micro-hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Wednesday.

Solar wind speed is likely to steadily decline to about 400 km/second through Wednesday due to mild coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely due to mild coronal hole high speed stream effects.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

We are in the autumnal equinox season when disturbed geomagnetic conditions are much more likely and more severe than during the solstice seasons.

There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 158 through Wednesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing low and mid-latitudes is likely to be normal through Tuesday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday October 3rd by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is eight minutes later and sunset is 14 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Today’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is 155 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has six medium and two tiny active regions containing 56 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 580 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

There is a chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Tuesday.

Solar wind speed is likely to steadily decline to less than 400 km/second through Tuesday.

Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely with a chance of brief active geomagnetic conditions through Tuesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

We are in the autumnal equinox season when disturbed geomagnetic conditions are much more likely and more severe than during the solstice seasons.

There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 161 through Tuesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

Low latitude propagation is likely to be normal through Sunday.
Mid-latitude propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.
High latitude propagation is likely to be mildly degraded during local night hours through Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday October 1st by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is six minutes later and sunset is nine minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Today’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is 124 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has six medium and one tiny active region containing 39 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 640 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

There is a chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Sunday.

Solar wind speed is likely to steadily decline to less than 400 km/second through Friday, rising to about 450 km/second during Saturday due to a weak glancing blow by a CME, declining to background levels of less than 400 km/second during Sunday.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on Friday, unsettled to active on Saturday due to possible effects of a glancing blow by a CME, declining to mostly quiet on Sunday due to waning CME effects.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal on Friday, mostly normal on Saturday and normal on Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal on Friday, mostly normal on Saturday and normal on Sunday.

We are in the autumnal equinox season when disturbed geomagnetic conditions are much more likely and more severe than during the solstice seasons.

There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 148 through Sunday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

Low latitude propagation is likely to be normal and mid-latitude propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. High latitude propagation is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during local night hours through Friday September 29th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is four minutes later and sunset is eight minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Today’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is 132 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Friday. The sun’s visible disk has two large, three medium and three tiny active regions containing 58 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 835 micro-hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

There is a chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Friday.

Solar wind speed is likely to steadily decline to less than 400 km/second through Friday due to CME effects waning to near background levels.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through Friday with a chance of brief unsettled to active conditions.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through late Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

We are in the autumnal equinox season when disturbed geomagnetic conditions are much more likely than during the solstice seasons.

There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 155 through Friday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Wednesday. Propagation crossing mid and high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday September 28th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is three minutes later and sunset is six minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Today’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is 164 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has three large, three medium and four tiny active regions containing 79 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 940 micro-hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

There is a chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Thursday.

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated at about 450 km/second or less through Wednesday due to waning CME effects then gradually declining to less than 400 km/second on Thursday due to CME effects waning to near background levels.

Mostly quiet conditions are likely on Wednesday with a chance of brief unsettled to active conditions and a slight chance of brief minor geomagnetic storm conditions due to waning CME effects. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on Thursday with a chance of unsettled to active intervals due to CME effects waning to near background levels.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal late Wednesday improving to normal late Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal on Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.

We are in the autumnal equinox season when disturbed geomagnetic conditions are much more likely than during the solstice seasons.

There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 165 through Thursday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net