W3LPL Propagation forecast

[4L5A]

Propagation is likely to be mostly normal, but multiple weak CME arrivals are likely to periodically degrade MUFs through midday Thursday January 25th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs referenced at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 183 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 145 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday. The visible solar disk has one very large, one large, three medium and two tiny active regions containing 53 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1130 micro-hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to remain above 400 km/second through Thursday due to periodic weak CME arrivals.

There is a chance of periodic minor geomagnetic storms and a slight chance of an isolated strong geomagnetic storm through midday Thursday due to influences of periodic weak CME arrivals, improving to unsettled to active levels after midday Thursday.

Multiple minor, brief daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are likely through Thursday. There is a slight chance of isolated strong, longer lasting daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Thursday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal with periodic below normal intervals gradually improving to mostly normal after midday Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with periodic below normal intervals gradually improving to mostly normal after midday Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with periodic below normal intervals gradually improving to mostly normal after midday Thursday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with periodic below normal intervals gradually improving to mostly normal after midday Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly below normal on Wednesday and below normal on Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with periodic below normal intervals gradually improving to mostly normal after midday Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly below normal on Wednesday and below normal on Thursday.

There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 2 minutes earlier and sunset is 31 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at sea level.

Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

SWPC’s four day solar wind prediction is updated about every five days at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ws...ind-prediction

The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated

N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com

SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals through midday Tuesday gradually improving to mostly normal by early Wednesday January 24th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs referenced at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 201 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 161 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday. The visible solar disk has one large, six medium and one tiny active region containing 59 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 870 micro-hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to remain above 400 km/second through late Tuesday due to CME influences, gradually declining below 400 km/second by early Wednesday.

There is a chance of strong geomagnetic storms early Tuesday due to CME influences, improving to mostly unsettled to minor geomagnetic storm levels through midday Tuesday. Geomagnetic activity is likely to gradually improve to quiet to unsettled after midday Tuesday then improving to mostly quiet by midday Wednesday.

Minor, brief daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are likely through Wednesday. There is a slight chance of strong, longer lasting daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through Wednesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals through midday Tuesday gradually improving to normal by midday Wednesday

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly below normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals through midday Tuesday gradually improving to mostly normal by early Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals through midday Tuesday gradually improving to mostly normal by early Wednesday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals through midday Tuesday gradually improving to mostly normal by early Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be below normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals through midday Tuesday gradually improving to mostly normal by early Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be below normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.

There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 2 minutes earlier and sunset is 30 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

SWPC’s four day solar wind prediction is updated about every five days at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ws...ind-prediction

The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated

N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com

SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

Propagation is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals through late Tuesday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be below normal from midday Monday until before midday Tuesday January 23rd by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs referenced at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 176 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Tuesday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 161 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Tuesday. The visible solar disk has one large, seven medium and one tiny active region containing 60 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1050 micro-hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to climb above 450 km/second by midday Monday through late Tuesday and is likely to exceed 500 km/second from midday Monday until before midday Tuesday due to coronal home high speed stream and CME effects.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly unsettled through midday Monday degrading to mostly minor to moderate geomagnetic storm levels from midday Monday until before midday Tuesday due to coronal home high speed stream and CME effects. Geomagnetic activity is likely to gradually improve to quiet to unsettled levels after midday Tuesday.

There is a chance of isolated minor, brief daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares and a slight chance of strong longer lasting daytime radio blackouts caused by X-class solar flares through at least Tuesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through midday Monday with below normal intervals from midday Monday until before midday Tuesday then gradually improving to mostly normal after midday Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be below normal on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and below normal on Tuesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Monday degrading to below normal from midday Monday until before midday Tuesday then gradually improving to mostly normal after midday Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Monday degrading to below normal from midday Monday until before midday Tuesday then gradually improving to mostly normal after midday Tuesday

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Monday degrading to below normal from midday Monday until before midday Tuesday then gradually improving to mostly normal after midday Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be below normal through Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through midday Monday degrading to below normal from midday Monday until before midday Tuesday then gradually improving to mostly normal after midday Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be below normal through Tuesday.

There is a very slight chance of brief, isolated, geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1400-1600Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2200-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for a prolonged period of at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 1 minute earlier and sunset is 28 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

SWPC’s four day solar wind prediction is updated about every five days at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ws...ind-prediction

The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated

N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com

SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Some of the best HF propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely to continue through at least Sunday January 22nd by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 162 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 156 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday. The visible solar disk has six medium and two tiny active regions containing 33 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 950 micro-hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are less severe and about half as likely as during the equinox seasons and geomagnetically quiet periods are much more frequent and long lasting than during the equinox seasons.

Solar wind speed is likely to remain mildly elevated at above 400 km/second through Sunday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet through at least Sunday with a chance of isolated unsettled to active intervals from midday Saturday through early Sunday.

There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through at least Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through at least Sunday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Sunday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through at least Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least Sunday.

There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2200-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 1 minute earlier and sunset is 25 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
SWPC’s four day solar wind prediction is updated about every five days at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ws...ind-prediction

The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated

N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com

SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Some of the best propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely through at least Saturday January 19th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________



Tonight I presented a talk on Worldwide HF Propagation to the Montgomery Amateur Radio Club. A video of my presentation can be viewed at:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=OISy2tc7GOo

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 173 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 168 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday. The visible solar disk has eight medium and two tiny active regions containing 58 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 880 micro-hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are less severe and about half as likely as during the equinox seasons and geomagnetically quiet periods are much more frequent and long lasting than during the equinox seasons.

Solar wind speed is likely to persist at about 350 km/second through at least Saturday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be mostly quiet through at least Saturday.

There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through at least Saturday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Saturday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through at least Saturday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Saturday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Saturday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least Saturday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through at least Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least Saturday.

There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2200-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 1 minutes earlier and sunset is 23 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
SWPC’s four day solar wind prediction is updated about every five days at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ws...ind-prediction

The UK Met Office Solar Flare Forecast is updated daily at
https://swe.ssa.esa.int/web/guest/ukmo-S109c-federated

N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at
www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at
https://prop.kc2g.com

SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Propagation is likely to be normal through at least Friday January 19th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 179 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 155 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday. The visible solar disk has nine medium and three tiny active regions containing 30 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 820 micro-hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are less severe and about half as likely as during the equinox seasons and geomagnetically quiet periods are much more frequent and long lasting than during the equinox seasons.

Solar wind speed is likely to persist at about 400 km/second due to weak coronal hole high speed stream effects then declining to about 350 km/second from midday Thursday through at least late Friday.

Geomagnetic activity is likely to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active intervals due to weak coronal hole high speed stream effects improving to mostly quiet from midday Thursday through at least late Friday.

There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through late Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be normal through Friday.. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be normal through at least Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2200-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is one minute later and sunset is 21 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

SWPC’s four day solar wind prediction is updated about every five days at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ws...ind-prediction

N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday January 17th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 182 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 141 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday. The visible solar disk has two large, five medium and three tiny active regions containing 50 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1120 micro-hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are less severe and about half as likely as during the equinox seasons and geomagnetically quiet periods are much more frequent and long lasting than during the equinox seasons.

Solar wind speed is likely to be at less than 350 km/second through Tuesday possibly increasing slightly to about 400 km/second on Wednesday and early Thursday due to weak coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic activity is likely with a chance of isolated active periods by due to weak coronal hole high speed stream effects through Thursday

There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Thursday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.

There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2200-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 2 minutes later and sunset is 19 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

SWPC’s four day solar wind prediction is updated about every five days at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ws...ind-prediction

N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday January 15th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 186 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 165 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday. The visible solar disk has two large, five medium and five tiny active regions containing 63 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 940 micro-hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are less severe and about half as likely as during the equinox seasons and geomagnetically quiet periods are much more frequent and long lasting than during the equinox seasons.

Solar wind speed is likely to be at less than 350 km/second through Monday possibly increasing slightly to about 400 km/second by Tuesday due to weak coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic activity is likely through Tuesday wit ha chance of isolated active periods by Tuesday due to weak coronal hole high speed stream effects.

There is a chance of minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Tuesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2200-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 2 minutes later and sunset is 17 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

SWPC’s four day solar wind prediction is updated about every five days at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ws...ind-prediction

N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday January 14th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ _____________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 188 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 170 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday. The visible solar disk has one large, six medium and two tiny active regions containing 61 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 810 micro-hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are less severe and about half as likely as during the equinox seasons and geomagnetically quiet periods are much more frequent and long lasting than during the equinox seasons.

Solar wind speed is likely to remain elevated above 450 km/second through Sunday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic activity is likely through Sunday.

There is a chance of minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2200-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 3 minutes later and sunset is 14 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

SWPC’s four day solar wind prediction is updated about every five days at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ws...ind-prediction

N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation

[4L5A]

Propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday January 13th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
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My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 190 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 164 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday. The visible solar disk has three large, five medium and two tiny active regions containing 83 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 1200 micro-hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth).
http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...tions/solarmap

We are in the winter solstice season when geomagnetic disturbances are less severe and about half as likely as during the equinox seasons and geomagnetically quiet periods are much more frequent and long lasting than during the equinox seasons.

Solar wind speed is likely to remain elevated above 450 km/second until about midday Thursday due to weak coronal hole high speed stream effects, declining to less than 400 km/second through Saturday as coronal hole high speed stream effects weaken.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic activity is likely through Saturday.

There is a chance of minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Saturday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday.. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday.17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday.

12 and 10 meter long distance propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday.

There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter above-the-MUF trans-Atlantic F2 propagation from about 1300-1500Z between mid-latitude U.S states and western Europe, this above-the-MUF propagation path may be skewed towards the east. There is a very slight chance of brief geographically focused 6 meter F2 propagation enhanced by TEP over Africa from the mid-latitude US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1500-1800Z. There is a very slight chance of widespread F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from about 2100-0100Z. There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF F2 propagation enhanced by oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 5W, E5, FK, ZL7 and VK/ZL) from about 2200-0100Z. There is a very slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of above-the-MUF F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced from late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 3 minutes later and sunset is 14 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Northwest Research Associate’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is updated daily at 1800, 2000 and 2200Z at:
http://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/foreca...-5-flux-en.php

SWPC’s Estimated Planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

SWPC’s four day solar wind prediction is updated about every five days at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ws...ind-prediction

N0NBH’s Current HF Band Conditions Report is updated regularly at www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

KC2G’s Near-Real-Time Maps and Data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from near real time data usually only 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

SWPC’s Real Time 24 hour Geomagnetic Data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and near real time 30 minute forecasts are updated frequently at:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ge...-activity-plot

SIDC’s Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at http://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherservi...uct/meu/latest

GFZ-Potsdam’s three-day GFZ Planetary K Index Forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...index-forecast

SWPC’s Solar Activity Forecast and Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at: www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

The Australian Space Forecast Centre’s Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at: www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation