W3LPL Propagation forecast

[4L5A]

Some of the best HF propagation in 20 years is likely to continue but with a very slight chance of brief intervals of minor degradation of propagation crossing high latitudes during local night time hours through Thursday October 26th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 30 minutes later and sunset is 47 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are not expected through Thursday.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 122 or slightly higher through Thursday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 37 and is likely to rise only slightly by Thursday The sun’s visible disk resembles solar minimum conditions with only one medium and one tiny active region containing only one medium sized sunspot and four tiny sunspots with a total sunspot area of only 70 micro-hemispheres (less than half the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated at 400 km/second or less through Thursday due to brief intervals of minor coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions with possible brief unsettled intervals are likely through Thursday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Thursday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be normal through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.


There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) from late morning to mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals of low and mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

Some of the best HF propagation in 20 years is likely to resume but with a slight chance of brief intervals of minor degradation of propagation crossing high latitudes during local night time hours through Wednesday October 25th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 29 minutes later and sunset is 45 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are not expected through Wednesday.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 120 or slightly higher through Wednesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 55 and is likely to rise slightly by Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has one medium and three tiny active regions containing only eight sunspots with a total sunspot area of 80 micro-hemispheres (less than half the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated at about 400 km/second or less through Wednesday due to brief intervals of minor coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions with possible brief unsettled intervals are likely through Wednesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) from late morning to mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals of low and mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

Mostly normal propagation is likely through Sunday with moderate degradation of propagation crossing high latitudes during local night time hours through midday Sunday October 22nd by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 28 minutes later and sunset is 43 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are not likely through Sunday.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 130 through Sunday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 55 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has three medium active regions containing only nine sunspots with a total sunspot area of 220 micro-hemispheres (about the same as the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be about 400 km/second or less through Sunday due to mild effects of glancing blows by several slow CMEs.

Mostly unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely through Friday. Possible effects of a glancing blow by slow CME may produce unsettled to active conditions with a chance of a minor geomagnetic storm early Saturday, improving to quiet to unsettled conditions through midday Sunday. Mostly quiet conditions are likely after midday Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be below normal on Friday improving to mostly normal through Sunday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals during local nighttime hours through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals during local nighttime hours through Sunday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals during local nighttime hours through Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals during local nighttime hours through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

Mostly normal propagation is likely through Friday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be moderately degraded during local night time hours from midday Thursday to midday Friday October 20th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 26 minutes later and sunset is 40 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

Daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are not likely through Friday.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 135 through Friday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 50 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Friday. The sun’s visible disk has Three medium active regions containing 24 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 330 micro-hemispheres (about two times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be about 400 km/second through midday Thursday, then becoming moderately elevated to about 500 km/second through midday Friday due to CME effects.

Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely through midday Thursday. A CME is likely to arrive after midday Thursday resulting in active to minor geomagnetic storm conditions with a slight chance of a moderate geomagnetic storm through midday Friday. Unsettled to active conditions are likely to persist through the weekend.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be below normal on Thursday then mostly normal late Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal on Thursday and below normal on Friday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Friday then mostly normal through late Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Friday then mostly normal through late Friday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Friday then mostly normal through late Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Friday then mostly normal through late Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

The best HF propagation in the last 20 years – especially on 12 and 10 meters -- is likely to continue through at least midday Thursday October 19th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 25 minutes later and sunset is 39 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a slight chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Thursday.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 137 through Thursday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 59 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has one large and two medium active regions containing 27 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 440 micro-hemispheres (about two times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be about 400 km/second or less through midday Thursday, then mildly elevated to about 450 km/second or more by midday Thursday due to CME effects.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions with unsettled intervals are likely through midday Thursday. Active geomagnetic conditions with a chance of minor to moderate geomagnetic storms are likely from midday to late Thursday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday then mostly normal late Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Thursday then mostly normal through late Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Thursday then mostly normal through late Thursday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Thursday then mostly normal through late Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday then mostly normal on Thursday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be normal through midday Thursday then mostly normal through late Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday then mostly normal on Thursday.

There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

The best HF propagation in the last 20 years – especially on 12 and 10 meters -- is likely to continue through Wednesday October 18th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 24 minutes later and sunset is 38 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a slight chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Wednesday.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 144 through Wednesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 97 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has three medium and four tiny active regions containing 36 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 430 micro-hemispheres (about two times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be about 400 km/second or less through early Wednesday, mildly elevated to about 450 km/second by midday Wednesday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions with unsettled intervals are likely through early Wednesday. Mostly unsettled geomagnetic conditions with a chance of isolated active geomagnetic intervals are likely through midday Wednesday, improving to mostly quiet conditions through late Wednesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.

There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

The best HF propagation in the last 20 years – especially on 12 and 10 meters -- is likely to continue with possible mild degradation of high latitude propagation during local night time hours after late Monday October 15th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 23 minutes later and sunset is 36 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a slight chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Sunday.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 145 through Sunday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 107 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has two large and four medium active regions containing 32 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 510 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be about 400 km/second or less through late Monday, mildly elevating to about 450 km/second by early Tuesday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through late Monday. Mostly unsettled geomagnetic conditions with a chance of isolated active geomagnetic intervals are likely during Tuesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday.

There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

Some of the best HF propagation in the last 20 years – especially on 12 and 10 meters -- is likely to persist through at least Sunday October 15th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 21 minutes later and sunset is 32 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Sunday.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 157 through Sunday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 110 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has six medium and two tiny active regions containing 46 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 580 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated to 400 km/second or less through Sunday.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through Sunday. There is a chance of unsettled periods, a slight chance of isolated active geomagnetic periods and a very slight chance of brief minor geomagnetic storms through early Saturday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.

We are in the autumnal equinox season when disturbed geomagnetic conditions are more likely, more severe and longer lasting than during the solstice seasons.

There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

Low and mid latitude propagation is likely to be normal through Friday. High latitude propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Friday October 13th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 19 minutes later and sunset is 30 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Friday.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 158 through Friday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 144 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Friday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, six medium and three tiny active regions containing 49 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 805 micro-hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated to about 400 km/second through Friday.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely through Friday. There is a slight chance of isolated active geomagnetic periods and a very slight chance of one or two minor geomagnetic storms through Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.

We are in the autumnal equinox season when disturbed geomagnetic conditions are more likely, more severe and longer lasting than during the solstice seasons.

There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

[4L5A]

Low and mid latitude propagation is likely to be normal through Wednesday. High latitude propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday October 11th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________

My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com

Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 17 minutes later and sunset is 27 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 169 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has one large, three medium and four tiny active regions containing 49 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 495 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

There is a chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Wednesday.

Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels of about 350 km/second through midday Tuesday slightly increasing to about 400 km/second from midday Tuesday through Wednesday.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through midday Tuesday then mildly degrading to quiet to unsettled from midday Tuesday through Wednesday. There is a slight chance of isolated active geomagnetic conditions and a very slight chance of a minor geomagnetic storm during Wednesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to normal through Wednesday.

30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Tuesday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Tuesday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Wednesday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Tuesday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be normal through midday Tuesday then slightly degrading to mostly normal through Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

We are in the autumnal equinox season when disturbed geomagnetic conditions are more likely, more severe and longer lasting than during the solstice seasons.

There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 166 through Wednesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net