Mid and high latitude HF propagation is likely to be mildly degraded, improving to mostly normal by early Saturday then again becoming mildly degraded by late Sunday October 29th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 35 minutes later and sunset is 52 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
Daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are not expected through Sunday.
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is 126 and is likely to climb slightly to about 130 by Sunday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php
The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 54 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk resembles solar minimum conditions with four tiny active regions containing 17 tiny sunspots with a total sunspot area of only 90 micro-hemispheres (only about half of the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated at about 450 km/second or less through early Saturday due to weakening coronal hole high speed stream effects, declining to near background levels of 400 km/second or less from early Saturday through late Sunday. Solar wind speed is likely to become mildly elevated to about 450 km/second or more by late Sunday due to mild coronal hole high speed stream effects.
Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely through early Saturday due to weakening coronal hole high speed stream effects. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely from early Saturday until late Sunday when unsettled to active conditions are expected to commence due to mild coronal hole high speed stream effects.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday and moderately degraded on Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Sunday then becoming moderately degraded by late Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Sunday then becoming moderately degraded by late Sunday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Sunday then becoming moderately degraded by late Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.
12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal through midday Sunday then becoming moderately degraded by late Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.
There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early to late evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic coast of southern Africa (e.g., ZD7, D2 and 7Q) from late morning to mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals of low and mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot
Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png
Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu
Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
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Despite very unusual low sunspot and geomagnetic activity for solar maximum, some of the best HF propagation in 20 years is likely to continue through at least Saturday October 28th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 33 minutes later and sunset is 50 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
Daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are not expected through Saturday.
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 126 through Saturday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php
The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 31 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday. The sun’s visible disk resembles solar minimum conditions with only two active regions containing only six tiny sunspots with a total sunspot area of only 60 micro-hemispheres (about one third the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels of about 350 km/second or less through Saturday due to unusually low solar activity for solar maximum.
Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through Saturday with a chance of brief unsettled intervals during Friday due to isolated influence of weak coronal hole high speed stream effects.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Saturday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Saturday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Saturday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.
12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be normal through Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.
There is a slight chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) from late morning to mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals of low and mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot
Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png
Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu
Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
Leave a comment:
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Despite very unusual low sunspot and geomagnetic activity for solar maximum, some of the best HF propagation in 20 years is likely to continue through at least Friday October 27th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are generated every 15 minutes from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 32 minutes later and sunset is 48 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
Daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are not expected through Friday.
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 120 through Friday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php
The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 35 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday. The sun’s visible disk resembles solar minimum conditions with only three tiny active regions containing only four tiny sunspots with a total sunspot area of only 40 micro-hemispheres (less than one quarter the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels of about 350 km/second or less through Friday due to unusually low solar activity for solar maximum.
Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through Thursday with possible brief unsettled intervals during Friday due to isolated influence of weak coronal hole high speed stream effects.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through Friday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Friday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday.
12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be normal through Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday.
There is a slight chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) from late morning to mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals of low and mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot
Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png
Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu
Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
Leave a comment:
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Some of the best HF propagation in 20 years is likely to continue but with a very slight chance of brief intervals of minor degradation of propagation crossing high latitudes during local night time hours through Thursday October 26th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 30 minutes later and sunset is 47 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
Daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are not expected through Thursday.
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 122 or slightly higher through Thursday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php
The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 37 and is likely to rise only slightly by Thursday The sun’s visible disk resembles solar minimum conditions with only one medium and one tiny active region containing only one medium sized sunspot and four tiny sunspots with a total sunspot area of only 70 micro-hemispheres (less than half the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated at 400 km/second or less through Thursday due to brief intervals of minor coronal hole high speed stream effects.
Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions with possible brief unsettled intervals are likely through Thursday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Thursday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.
12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be normal through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.
There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) from late morning to mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals of low and mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot
Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png
Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu
Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
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Some of the best HF propagation in 20 years is likely to resume but with a slight chance of brief intervals of minor degradation of propagation crossing high latitudes during local night time hours through Wednesday October 25th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 29 minutes later and sunset is 45 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
Daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are not expected through Wednesday.
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 120 or slightly higher through Wednesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php
The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 55 and is likely to rise slightly by Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has one medium and three tiny active regions containing only eight sunspots with a total sunspot area of 80 micro-hemispheres (less than half the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated at about 400 km/second or less through Wednesday due to brief intervals of minor coronal hole high speed stream effects.
Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions with possible brief unsettled intervals are likely through Wednesday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be normal through Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.
There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) from late morning to mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals of low and mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot
Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png
Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu
Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
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Mostly normal propagation is likely through Sunday with moderate degradation of propagation crossing high latitudes during local night time hours through midday Sunday October 22nd by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 28 minutes later and sunset is 43 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
Daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are not likely through Sunday.
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 130 through Sunday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php
The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 55 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has three medium active regions containing only nine sunspots with a total sunspot area of 220 micro-hemispheres (about the same as the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to be about 400 km/second or less through Sunday due to mild effects of glancing blows by several slow CMEs.
Mostly unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely through Friday. Possible effects of a glancing blow by slow CME may produce unsettled to active conditions with a chance of a minor geomagnetic storm early Saturday, improving to quiet to unsettled conditions through midday Sunday. Mostly quiet conditions are likely after midday Sunday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be below normal on Friday improving to mostly normal through Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals during local nighttime hours through Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals during local nighttime hours through Sunday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals during local nighttime hours through Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.
12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal with below normal intervals during local nighttime hours through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.
There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot
Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png
Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu
Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
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Mostly normal propagation is likely through Friday. Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be moderately degraded during local night time hours from midday Thursday to midday Friday October 20th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 26 minutes later and sunset is 40 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
Daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are not likely through Friday.
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 135 through Friday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php
The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 50 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Friday. The sun’s visible disk has Three medium active regions containing 24 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 330 micro-hemispheres (about two times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to be about 400 km/second through midday Thursday, then becoming moderately elevated to about 500 km/second through midday Friday due to CME effects.
Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely through midday Thursday. A CME is likely to arrive after midday Thursday resulting in active to minor geomagnetic storm conditions with a slight chance of a moderate geomagnetic storm through midday Friday. Unsettled to active conditions are likely to persist through the weekend.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be below normal on Thursday then mostly normal late Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal on Thursday and below normal on Friday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Friday then mostly normal through late Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Friday then mostly normal through late Friday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Friday then mostly normal through late Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.
12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly below normal through midday Friday then mostly normal through late Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.
There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot
Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png
Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu
Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
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The best HF propagation in the last 20 years – especially on 12 and 10 meters -- is likely to continue through at least midday Thursday October 19th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 25 minutes later and sunset is 39 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
There is a slight chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Thursday.
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 137 through Thursday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php
The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 59 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Thursday. The sun’s visible disk has one large and two medium active regions containing 27 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 440 micro-hemispheres (about two times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to be about 400 km/second or less through midday Thursday, then mildly elevated to about 450 km/second or more by midday Thursday due to CME effects.
Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions with unsettled intervals are likely through midday Thursday. Active geomagnetic conditions with a chance of minor to moderate geomagnetic storms are likely from midday to late Thursday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday then mostly normal late Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Thursday then mostly normal through late Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Thursday then mostly normal through late Thursday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Thursday then mostly normal through late Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday then mostly normal on Thursday.
12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be normal through midday Thursday then mostly normal through late Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday then mostly normal on Thursday.
There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot
Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png
Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu
Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
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The best HF propagation in the last 20 years – especially on 12 and 10 meters -- is likely to continue through Wednesday October 18th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 24 minutes later and sunset is 38 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
There is a slight chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Wednesday.
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 144 through Wednesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php
The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 97 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has three medium and four tiny active regions containing 36 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 430 micro-hemispheres (about two times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to be about 400 km/second or less through early Wednesday, mildly elevated to about 450 km/second by midday Wednesday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.
Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions with unsettled intervals are likely through early Wednesday. Mostly unsettled geomagnetic conditions with a chance of isolated active geomagnetic intervals are likely through midday Wednesday, improving to mostly quiet conditions through late Wednesday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal on Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.
There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot
Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png
Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu
Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net
Leave a comment:
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The best HF propagation in the last 20 years – especially on 12 and 10 meters -- is likely to continue with possible mild degradation of high latitude propagation during local night time hours after late Monday October 15th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
__________________________________________________ __________________
My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png
SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png
N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html
Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 23 minutes later and sunset is 36 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.
There is a slight chance of isolated minor daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Sunday.
The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 145 through Sunday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php
The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 107 and is likely to remain mostly unchanged through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has two large and four medium active regions containing 32 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 510 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap
Solar wind speed is likely to be about 400 km/second or less through late Monday, mildly elevating to about 450 km/second by early Tuesday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.
Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through late Monday. Mostly unsettled geomagnetic conditions with a chance of isolated active geomagnetic intervals are likely during Tuesday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday.
12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal on Monday and mostly normal on Tuesday.
There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the southern tier of US states to equatorial Africa and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) during mid-afternoon. There is a very slight chance of very brief isolated oblique-TEP from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly US stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during the late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf
Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.
Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot
Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png
Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu
Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1
Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net
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