W3LPL Propagation forecast

[4L5A]

The 2200Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 214.

The early Friday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 175.



6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be very infrequent, very short duration

and very unreliable until at least late January.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be normal

until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of mildly degraded periods

from midday Friday through early Saturday. Moderately degraded periods

are likely from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving

to mildly degraded through late Saturday, then gradually improving

to mostly normal from early through late Sunday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal until at least

midday Friday. There is a chance of mildly degraded periods from midday

Friday through early Saturday. There is a chance of moderately degraded

periods from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving

to mostly normal from early through late Sunday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal until

at least midday Friday, and mostly normal on Saturday and Sunday.



Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia

on 80 through 10 meters is likely to be normal until at least midday Friday.

There is a chance of moderately degraded periods from early through

midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mostly normal from early

through late Sunday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until at least late January . 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning.

The 2200Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 214 .
The early Friday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 175.

The visible solar disk has two decaying large active regions and six small active regions. There are 79 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1400 micro-solar hemispheres (about nine times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be about 400 km/second until at least midday Friday , increasing to well above 400 km/second through late Saturday due to effects of multiple CMEs and gradually improving to about 400 km/second during Sunday as CME effects wane.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely until at least midday Friday . Minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions are likely from early through midday Saturday, then becoming unsettled to active through late Saturday. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely during Sunday.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be normal until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of mildly degraded periods from midday Friday through early Saturday. Moderately degraded periods are likely from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mildly degraded through late Saturday. Propagation is likely to gradually improve to mostly normal from early through late Sunday.


There is a slight chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may slightly degrade propagation crossing polar regions on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

M-class solar flares are likely to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Friday, and mostly normal on Saturday and Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Friday and Saturday improving to mostly normal Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal on Friday. moderately degraded on Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of mildly degraded periods from midday Friday through early Saturday. Moderately degraded periods are likely from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mildly degraded through late Saturday. Propagation is likely to gradually improve to mostly normal from early through late Sunday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of mildly degraded periods from midday Friday through early Saturday. Moderately degraded periods are likely from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mildly degraded through late Saturday. Propagation is likely to gradually improve to mostly normal from early through late Sunday.



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of mildly degraded periods from midday Friday through early Saturday. Moderately degraded periods are likely from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mildly degraded through late Saturday. Propagation is likely to gradually improve to mostly normal from early through late Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of moderately degraded periods from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mostly normal from early through late Sunday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to normal until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of mildly degraded periods from midday Friday through early Saturday. Moderately degraded periods are likely from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mildly degraded through late Saturday. Propagation is likely to gradually improve to mostly normal from early through late Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of moderately degraded periods from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mostly normal from early through late Sunday.



There is a slight chance of unreliable above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. There is a slight chance of unreliable above-the-MUF propagation from the more westerly US states to the South Pacific from about 2100Z to 0200Z Friday, Saturday and Sunday. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is three minutes earlier and sunset is 33 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

The 2200Z Tuesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 234 . The latest SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 161.



6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be infrequent, short duration and unreliable until at least late January.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal from Wednesday through at least midday Friday with a chance of becoming mildly degraded by late Friday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal from Wednesday through at least midday Friday then becoming mostly normal by late Friday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia

on 80 through 10 meters is likely to be normal from Thursday through at least midday Friday then becoming mostly normal late Friday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be infrequent, short duration and unreliable until at least late January . 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning.


The visible solar disk has two decaying large active regions, one growing medium active region, one stable medium active region, one decaying medium active region and three small active regions. There are 98 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1830 micro-solar hemispheres (about 11 times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be well above 400 km/second on Wednesday then gradually declining to about 400 km/second or less by early Thursday with a chance of increasing to well above 400 km/second by late Friday due to a possible glancing blow by a CME.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on Wednesday. Quiet conditions are likely on from early Thursday through at least midday Friday. There is a chance of unsettled to active conditions by late Friday due to a possible glancing blow by a CME. We are in the solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Wednesday through at least midday Friday with a chance of becoming mildly degraded by late Friday.

There is a slight chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may slightly degrade propagation crossing polar regions on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

M-class solar flares are likely to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday and Thursday with a chance of mild degradation on Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Wednesday through at least midday Friday with a chance of mild degradation by late Friday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Wednesday through at least midday Friday with a chance of mild degradation by late Friday.



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Wednesday through at least midday Friday with a chance of mild degradation by late Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal from Wednesday through at least midday Friday with a chance of mild degradation by late Friday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Wednesday through at least midday Friday with a chance of mild degradation by late Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal from Wednesday through at least midday Friday with a chance of mild degradation by late Friday.



There is a slight chance of unreliable above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. There is a slight chance of unreliable above-the-MUF propagation from the more westerly US states to the South Pacific from about 2100Z to 0200Z Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is two minutes earlier and sunset is 30 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

The 1800Z Monday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 234 .

The early Tuesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 258.



6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be infrequent, short duration and unreliable

until at least late January.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mildly degraded during Tuesday local nighttime hours improving to mostly normal by Thursday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia

on 80 through 10 meters is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be infrequent, short duration and unreliable until at least late January . 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning.


The 1800Z Monday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 234 .

The early Tuesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 258 .

The visible solar disk has two growing large active regions, one decaying large active region, two stable medium active regions and five small active regions. There are 63 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 2030 micro-solar hemispheres (about 12 times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be well above 400 km/second on Tuesday then gradually declining to about 400 km/second or less by Thursday.



Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions with a chance of minor geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on Tuesday. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on Wednesday. Quiet conditions are likely on Thursday. We are in the solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be mildly disturbed during Tuesday nighttime hours improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and Thursday .


It is likely that M-class solar flares will cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. There is a very chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday improving to normal on Wednesday and Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday improving to normal on Wednesday and Thursday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded during Tuesday nighttime hours improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday.

30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded during Tuesday nighttime hours improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday.




17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded during Tuesday nighttime hours improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday.

17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded during Tuesday nighttime hours improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded during Tuesday nighttime hours improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded during Tuesday nighttime hours improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday



There is a chance of unreliable above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. There is a chance of unreliable above-the-MUF propagation from the more westerly US states to the South Pacific from about 2100Z to 0200Z Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is one minute earlier and sunset is 29 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

The 2200Z Sunday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 234 with a chance of further growth through at least Monday. The early Monday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 248 with a chance of further growth through at least Monday.



6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be infrequent, short duration

and unreliable until at least late January.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mildly degraded during Monday and Tuesday local nighttime hours improving to normal on Wednesday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and Tuesday improving to normal on Wednesday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and Tuesday improving to normal on Wednesday.



Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia

on 80 through 10 meters is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and Tuesday improving to normal on Wednesday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be infrequent, short duration and unreliable until at least late January . 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning.

The 2200Z Sunday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 234 chance of further growth through at least Monday.
The early Monday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 248 with a chance of further growth through at least Monday.

The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, one stable large active region, one decaying large active region, one growing medium active region, one stable medium active region and three small active regions. There are 63 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 2030 micro-solar hemispheres (about 12 times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be well above 400 km/second on Monday and Tuesday then declining to about 400 km/second or less during Wednesday.



Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions with a chance of minor geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on Monday. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on Tuesday. Normal conditions are likely on Wednesday. We are in the solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be mildly disturbed during Monday and Tuesday nighttime hours improving to mostly normal on Wednesday .

There is a slight chance of S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday that may slightly degrade propagation crossing polar latitudes on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a very slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and Tuesday improving to normal on Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and Tuesday improving to normal on Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday improving to normal on Tuesday and Wednesday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded during Monday and Tuesday local nighttime hours improving to normal on Wednesday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded during Monday and Tuesday local nighttime hours improving to normal on Wednesday.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded during Monday and Tuesday local nighttime hours improving to normal on Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded during Monday and Tuesday local nighttime hours improving to normal on Wednesday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded during Monday and Tuesday local nighttime hours improving to normal on Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded during Monday and Tuesday local nighttime hours improving to normal on Wednesday



There is a chance of unreliable above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a chance of unreliable above-the-MUF propagation from the more westerly US states to the South Pacific from about 2100Z to 0200Z Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is one minute later and sunset is 27 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

The 2200Z Monday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 175.

The early Thursday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 85.



6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be very infrequent, very short duration

and very unreliable until at least late January.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday

and mildly degraded during local nighttime hours on Friday and Saturday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal on Thursday, and mostly normal on Friday and Saturday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia

on 80 through 10 meters is likely to be normal on Thursday, and mostly normal on Friday and Saturday.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until at least late January . 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning.

The 2200Z Monday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 175 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

The early Thursday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 85 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

The visible solar disk has one stable large active region, one growing medium active region, one stable medium active region and two small active regions. There are 44 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 890 micro-solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be mostly above 400 km/second on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on Thursday. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on Friday, Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on Saturday. We are in the solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday and mildly disturbed on Friday and Saturday .


No S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms are expected on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. No X-class solar flares are expected that may cause about an hour of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday and mildly degraded during local nighttime hours on Friday and Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday and mildly degraded during local nighttime hours on Friday and Saturday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday and mildly degraded during local nighttime hours on Friday and Saturday .


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday and mildly degraded during local nighttime hours on Friday and Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal from Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday and mildly degraded during local nighttime hours on Friday and Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal from Thursday, Friday and Saturday



There is a minimal chance of unreliable above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z on Thursday. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is one minutes later and sunset is 23 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

The 2200Z Monday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 166.

The early Wednesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 77.



6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be very infrequent, very short duration

and very unreliable until at least late January.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday and mildly degraded on Thursday and Friday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday and Friday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia

on 80 through 10 meters is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until at least late January . 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning.


The 2200Z Monday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 166 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Friday.

The early Wednesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 77 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Friday.

The visible solar disk has one decaying large active region, one stable medium active region, two decaying medium active region and two small active regions. There are 25 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1030 micro-solar hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be about 400 km/second on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on Wednesday. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on Thursday and Friday. We are in the solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday and mildly disturbed on Thursday and Friday .


No S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms are expected on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. No X-class solar flares are expected that may cause about an hour of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday and Thursday and mildly degraded on Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday and Friday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday and mildly degraded on Thursday and Friday . 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday and mildly degraded on Thursday and Friday.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday and mildly degraded on Thursday and Friday . 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal from Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday and mildly degraded on Thursday and Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal from Wednesday, Thursday and Friday



There is a minimal chance of unreliable above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z on Wednesday. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is two minutes later and sunset is 21 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

The 2200Z Monday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 160.

The early Tuesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 96.



6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be very infrequent, very short duration

and very unreliable until at least late January.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



HF propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia

on 80 through 10 meters is likely to be normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until at least late January . 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning.

The 2200Z Monday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 160 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday.

The early Tuesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 96 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday.

The visible solar disk has one growing medium active region, one stable medium active region, one decaying medium active region and four small active regions. There are 30 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 970 micro-solar hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be about 400 km/second on Tuesday and Wednesday then declining to less than 400 km/second on Thursday.



Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on Thursday. We are in the solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday .

No S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms are expected on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. There is a slight chance that isolated X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, and Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal on Tuesday, mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal from Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal from Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday



There is a minimal chance of unreliable above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z on Tuesday. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is two minutes later and sunset is 20 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

The 2200Z Sunday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 158.

The early Monday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 117.



6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be very infrequent, very short duration

and very unreliable until at least late January.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal

on Monday, with mild degradation during local nighttime hours from about

midday Tuesday through late Wednesday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday



Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia

on 80 through 10 meters is likely to be mostly normal through on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until at least late January . 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning.

The 2200Z Tuesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 158 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.

The early Monday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 117 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.

The visible solar disk has two stable medium active regions, one decaying medium active region and four small active regions. There are 29 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 765 micro-solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be about 400 km/second from Monday through about midday Tuesday, midday Monday then increasing to more than 400 km/second through late Wednesday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely from Monday through about midday Tuesday. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely from about midday Tuesday through late Wednesday. We are in the solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Monday through about midday Tuesday and mildly degraded from about midday Tuesday through late Wednesday .

No S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms are expected on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.


There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a slight chance that isolated X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be normal on Monday, and mostly normal on Tuesday and Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Monday through midday Tuesday then mildly degraded through late Wednesday during local nighttime hours.. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Monday through midday Tuesday then mildly degraded through late Wednesday during local nighttime hours.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Monday through midday Tuesday then mildly degraded through late Wednesday during local nighttime hours. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal on Monday andTuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Monday through midday Tuesday then mildly degraded through late Wednesday during local nighttime hours. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal on Monday and Tuesday and mostly normal on Wednesday.



There is a very slight chance of unreliable above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z on Monday. There is a very slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is three minutes later and sunset is 19 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Some of the best HF propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



The 2200Z Tuesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 159.

The early Thursday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 117.



6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be very infrequent, very short duration

and very unreliable until at least late January.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia on

80 through 10 meters is likely to be normal through on Thursday, Friday and Saturday

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until at least late January . 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until at least late January but could occur without warning.

The 2200Z Tuesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 159 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

The early Thursday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 117and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

The visible solar disk has one decaying large active region and seven small active regions. There are 33 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 540 micro-solar hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be above 400 km/second through midday Thursday then gradually declining to about 400 km/second or less by early Friday and about 400 km/second during Saturday.



Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely during Thursday, Friday and Saturday. We are in the solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.


There is a slight chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may slightly increase absorption of HF propagation crossing the polar regions on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

M-class solar flares are likely to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. There is a slight chance that isolated X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



There is a very slight chance of unreliable above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z on Thursday. There is a very slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is four minutes later and sunset is 15 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Some of the best HF propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.




The 2200Z Monday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 169.

The early Wednesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 134.



6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until at least late January.



HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia on 80 through 10 meters is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until at least late January . 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until at least late January but could occur without warning.

The 2200Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 169 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Friday.

The early Wednesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 134 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Friday.

The visible solar disk has one stable large active region and eight small active regions. There are 33 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 540 micro-solar hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be above 400 km/second through midday Wednesday then gradually declining to about 400 km/second or less by early Thursday and below 400 km/second by early Friday.



Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely during Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. We are in the solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.



Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be normal through on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

There is a slight chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may slightly increase absorption of HF propagation crossing the polar regions on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

M-class solar flares are likely to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. There is a slight chance that isolated X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



There is a very slight chance of unreliable above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z on Wednesday. There is a very slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is four minutes later and sunset is 14 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.