W3LPL Propagation forecast

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through midday Tuesday, then becoming mildly degraded from late Tuesday through late Wednesday and mostly normal during Thursday,



Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely late in October and early November but only if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days . 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states in late in October and early November. More northerly mid-latitude locations need an additional above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop or an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.

The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 181 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 113 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday.

The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, one growing medium active region, one decaying medium active region and one decaying small active region. The are 38 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area is 1270 micro solar hemispheres (about eight times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be less than 400 km/second until late Tuesday, increasing to more than 400 km/second from late Tuesday through late Wednesday and declining to 400 km/second or less during Thursday.



We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days occur about twice as often as during the solstice seasons . Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected through late Tuesday. There is a chance of a brief weak geomagnetic storm early Wednesday. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely from late Tuesday through late Wednesday. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely during Thursday.


There is a chance that isolated M-class solar flares may cause occasional brief periods of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Thursday.



There is a slight chance that X1-class or stronger solar flares may cause strong to severe radio blackouts of several hours hour duration on propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Thursday


S1 class solar energetic particle radiation storms may cause brief minor degradation of propagation crossing the northern polar region from Tuesday through Thursday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be moderately to be normal through Thursday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2300Z is likely to be mildly degraded through Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday . Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday and mildly degraded during Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Tuesday, becoming mildly degraded from late Tuesday through late Wednesday then improving to mostly normal during Thursday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Tuesday, becoming mildly degraded from late Tuesday through late Wednesday then improving to mostly normal during Thursday.

. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Tuesday, becoming mildly degraded from late Tuesday through late Wednesday then improving to mostly normal during Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through midday Tuesday, becoming mildly degraded from late Tuesday through late Wednesday then improving to mostly normal during Thursday



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal through midday Tuesday, becoming mildly degraded from late Tuesday through late Wednesday then improving to mostly normal during Thursday 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through midday Tuesday, becoming mildly degraded from late Tuesday through late Wednesday then improving to mostly normal during Thursday



There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via brief intervals of above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 22 minutes later and sunset is 36 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded until late Tuesday. Periods of mild to moderate degradation are likely from late Tuesday through late Wednesday.



Propagation crossing low and mid latitudes is likely to be normal through Wednesday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely for just a few days in late in October and early November but only if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days . 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states in late in October and early November. More northerly mid-latitude locations need an additional above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop or an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 193 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.

The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 193 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 132 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Wednesday.


The visible solar disk has two decaying large active regions, one growing medium active region, one decaying medium active region and one decaying small active region. The are 38 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area is 1270 micro solar hemispheres (about eight times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be mostly less than 400 km/second during until late Tuesday, increasing to mostly 500 km/second or more from late Tuesday during until late Wednesday.



We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days occur about twice as often as during the solstice seasons . Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected during Monday. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely until late Tuesday. Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely during most of Wednesday with a chance of a brief weak geomagnetic storm early Wednesday.

Isolated M-class solar flares are likely to cause occasional periods of a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Wednesday.



There is a slight chance that X1-class or stronger solar flares may cause strong to severe radio blackouts of several hours hour duration on propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Wednesday


S1 class solar energetic particle radiation storms may cause minor degradation of propagation crossing the northern polar region from Monday through Wednesday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be moderately to be normal through Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2300Z is likely to be mildly degraded through Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday and Tuesday and mildly degraded during Wednesday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded until late Tuesday. Mild to moderate degradation is likely from late Tuesday through late Wednesday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded until late Tuesday. Mild to moderate degradation is likely from late Tuesday through late Wednesday.

. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded until late Tuesday. Mild to moderate degradation is likely from late Tuesday through late Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal during Monday and Tuesday, and mildly degraded during Wednesday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mildly degraded until late Tuesday. Mild to moderate degradation is likely from late Tuesday through late Wednesday. . 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal during Monday and Tuesday, and mildly degraded during Wednesday



There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via brief intervals of above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 21 minutes later and sunset is 34 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be strongly to severe degraded during Friday. Moderate degradation is likely during Saturday. Mild degradation is likely during Sunday.



Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be strongly to severely degraded during Friday. Moderate degradation is likely during Saturday. Mostly normal propagation is likely during Sunday.



Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be strongly degraded through Friday. Moderate degradation is likely during Saturday. Normal propagation is likely during Sunday.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to begin late in October continuing through the first week in November but only if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days . 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states through early November. More northerly mid-latitude locations need an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop or an above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 230 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 140 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday.

The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, one decaying large active region, one growing medium active region, two decaying medium active regions. The are 90 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area is 1460 micro solar hemispheres (about nine times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be more than 600 km/second during most of Friday, more than 500 km/second during most of Saturday and about 400 km/second during most of Sunday.



We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days occur about twice as often as during the solstice seasons . Strong to severe geomagnetic storm conditions are expected through Friday. Mostly minor geomagnetic storm conditions are likely during Saturday. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely during Sunday.


M-class solar flares are expected to cause occasional periods of a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday.



There is a chance that X1-class or stronger solar flares may cause strong to severe radio blackouts of several hours hour duration on propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday


S2 class solar energetic particle radiation storms may strongly degrade propagation crossing the northern polar region during Friday. S1 class solar energetic particle radiation storms may cause minor degradation of propagation crossing the northern polar region during Saturday and Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be moderately to strongly degraded during Friday, mildly degraded during Saturday and normal during Sunday. . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2300Z is likely to be moderately degraded during Friday, mildly degraded during Saturday and mostly normal during Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be severely degraded during Friday, moderately degraded during Saturday and mostly normal during Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be strongly to severely degraded during Friday, moderately degraded during Saturday and mostly normal during Sunday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be strongly to severely degraded during Friday, moderately degraded during Saturday and mostly normal during Sunday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be strongly to severely degraded during Friday, moderately degraded during Saturday and mostly normal during Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be strongly degraded during Friday, moderately degraded during Saturday and mostly normal during Sunday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be strongly to severely degraded during Friday, moderately degraded during Saturday and mostly normal during Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be strongly degraded during Friday, moderately degraded during Saturday and mostly normal during Sunday.



There is a chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via unreliable, geographically focused, brief intervals of above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be normal through at least midday Thursday. Strong to severe degradation is likely to commence starting midday to late Thursday continuing until late Friday. Moderate degradation is likely through late Saturday.



Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal through at least midday Thursday. Moderate to strong degradation is likely to commence starting midday to late Thursday continuing until late Friday. Mild degradation is likely through late Saturday.



Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through at least midday Thursday. Moderate degradation is likely to commence starting midday to late Thursday continuing until late Friday. Mild degradation is likely through late Saturday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to begin late in October continuing through the first week in November but only if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days . 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states through early November. More northerly mid-latitude locations need an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop or an above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 224 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 148 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.

The visible solar disk has three stable large active regions, one growing medium active region and one decaying medium active region. The are 57 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area is 1920 micro solar hemispheres (about 12 times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be less than 400 km/second through midday Thursday then increasing to more than 500 km/second after midday Thursday then gradually declining to about 500 km/second or less through much of Saturday.



We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days occur about twice as often as during the solstice seasons . Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected through at least midday Thursday. Severe to extreme geomagnetic storm conditions are likely after midday Thursday continuing through about midday Friday. Minor geomagnetic storm conditions are likely through most of Saturday.

M-class solar flares are expected to cause occasional periods of a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday.



There is a chance that X1-class or stronger solar flares may cause strong to severe radio blackouts of several hours hour duration on propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday

S2 to S3-class solar energetic particle radiation storms may cause strong to severe degradation of propagation crossing the northern polar region through Saturday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mildly degraded through Saturday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2300Z is likely to be severely degraded on Thursday, moderately to strongly degraded on Friday and mildly degraded on Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal on Thursday, moderately to strongly degraded on Friday and mildly degraded on Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through about midday Thursday then becoming strongly to severely degraded through late Friday and mildly to moderately degraded during Saturday . Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through about midday Thursday then becoming strongly to severely degraded through late Friday and mildly to moderately degraded during Saturday . 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through about midday Thursday then becoming strongly to severely degraded through late Friday and mildly to moderately degraded during Saturday . 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, strongly to severely degraded on Friday and mildly to moderately degraded during Saturday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal through about midday Thursday then becoming strongly to severely degraded through late Friday and mildly to moderately degraded during Saturday . 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, strongly to severely degraded on Friday and mildly to moderately degraded during Saturday.



There is a chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via unreliable, geographically focused, brief intervals of above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal with periods of mild to moderate degradation during local nighttime hours through Friday



Propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal through midday Friday becoming mildly degraded through late Friday



Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through Friday

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to begin late in October continuing through the first week in November but only if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days . 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states through early November. More northerly mid-latitude locations need an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop or an above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 219 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Friday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 140 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Friday.

The visible solar disk has two growing very large active regions, one decaying very large active region, one decaying large active region, and one decaying medium active region. The are 75 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area is 2390 micro solar hemispheres (about 15 times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be less than 500 km/second through midday Wednesday then declining to less than 400 km/second through midday Friday

then increasing to above 400 km/second through late Friday.



We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days occur about twice as often as during the solstice seasons . Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected through midday Friday. Unsettled to minor geomagnetic storm conditions are likely after midday Friday.


M-class solar flares are expected to cause occasional periods of a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Friday.



There is a chance that X1-class or stronger solar flares may cause radio blackouts of about one hour duration or more on propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Friday.


There is a chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may slightly degrade propagation crossing the northern polar region through Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2300Z is likely to be normal on Wednesday and Thursday and mildly degraded on Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Friday then becoming mildly degraded through late Friday . Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Friday then becoming mildly degraded through late Friday . 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Friday then becoming mildly degraded through late Friday . 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday .



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal through midday Friday then becoming mildly degraded through late Friday . 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday .



There is a chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via unreliable, geographically focused, brief intervals of sporadic-E or unlikely above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to remain mildly to moderately degraded through midday Tuesday.



Mostly normal HF propagation is expected from midday Tuesday through midday Wednesday.



Normal propagation is likely from midday Wednesday through at least Thursday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to begin late in October continuing through the first week in November but only if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days . 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states through early November. More northerly mid-latitude locations need an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop or an occasional above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 254 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 183 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday.

The visible solar disk has one growing very large active region, one decaying very large active region, one decaying large active region, three growing medium active regions, one stable very small active region and one decaying very small active region. The are 74 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area is 2470 micro solar hemispheres (about 15 times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be less than 500 km/second through midday Tuesday then declining to less than 400 km/second from midday Wednesday through at least Thursday.



We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days occur about twice as often as during the solstice seasons . Minor to strong geomagnetic storm conditions are expected through midday Tuesday, improving to unsettled to active conditions are through midday Wednesday then mostly quiet conditions are likely through at least Thursday.


M-class solar flares are expected to cause occasional periods of a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Thursday.



There is a chance that X1-class or stronger solar flares may cause radio blackouts of about one hour duration or more on propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Thursday.
There is a chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may slightly degrade propagation crossing the northern polar region through Thursday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday improving to normal on Wednesday and Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Tuesday then improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded through midday Tuesday, improving to mostly normal through midday Wednesday then improving to normal conditions through at least Thursday . Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded through midday Tuesday, improving to mostly normal through midday Wednesday then improving to normal conditions through at least Thursday . 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded through midday Tuesday, improving to mostly normal through midday Wednesday then improving to normal conditions through at least Thursday . 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Tuesday improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mildly degraded through midday Tuesday, improving to mostly normal through midday Wednesday then improving to normal conditions through at least Thursday . 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Tuesday improving to mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday



There is a chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via unreliable, geographically focused, brief intervals of sporadic-E or unlikely above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 15 minutes later and sunset is 25 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Mostly poor HF propagation is expected on all bands from midday Friday through late Sunday due to multiple CME arrivals beginning at about midday Friday.



HF propagation crossing low, mid and high latitudes is likely to be mostly poor through Sunday during periods when the Bz component of the interplanetary field is southward oriented especially during local nighttime hours

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to begin in late October continuing through the first week in November if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days. 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day and long path propagation is possible from the southern tier of U.S. states through early November. More northerly mid-latitude locations need an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop or an infrequent above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.


The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 312 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday.

SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 218 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Sunday.

The visible solar disk has three growing large active regions, one growing medium active region, one decaying medium region, one stable small active region, two stable very small active regions and two decaying very small active regions. The are 129 sunspots on the visible disk and the total sunspot area is 1780 micro solar hemispheres (about 11 times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to be elevated to more than 600 km/second after midday Friday through Saturday and more than 800 km/second during Sunday.



We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days occur about twice as often as during the solstice seasons . Minor to strong geomagnetic storm conditions are expected through Sunday.



M-class solar flares are expected to cause occasional periods of a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday.



There is a chance that X1-class or stronger solar flares may cause radio blackouts of about one hour duration or more on propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Sunday.


There is a chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may slightly degrade propagation crossing the northern polar region through Sunday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly poor through Sunday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2300Z is likely to be mostly poor through Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be poor through Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly poor through Sunday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly poor through Sunday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly poor through Sunday 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly poor through Sunday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly poor through Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly poor through Sunday



There is a chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via unreliable, geographically focused, brief intervals of sporadic-E or unlikely above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 12 minutes later and sunset is 21 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday, moderately to strongly degraded during Friday and mildly to moderately degraded during Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal during Thursday, moderately to strongly degraded during Friday and mildly to moderately degraded during Saturday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal during Thursday, moderately to strongly degraded during Friday and mildly to moderately degraded during Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal during Thursday, moderately to strongly degraded during Friday and mildly to moderately degraded during Saturday.



There is a chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via unreliable, geographically focused, brief intervals of sporadic-E or unlikely above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 10 minutes later and sunset is 18 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Some of the best Solar Maximum HF propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely to continue through at least Friday.



HF propagation crossing low, mid and high latitudes is likely to be normal through at least Friday.



40 meter DX propagation is likely from early evening until after sunrise.

30 meter DX propagation is likely from late afternoon until a few hours after sunrise.

20, 17 and 15 meter DX propagation is likely 24 hours per day.

12 meter DX propagation is likely from sunrise through late night hours.

10 meter DX propagation is likely from early morning through early night hours.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter above-the-MUF F2 propagation is possible by late October if solar flux values persist well above 200 for several days. 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely almost every day from the southern tier of U.S. states through early November. More northerly mid-latitude locations need an unreliable and infrequent additional sporadic-E hop or an occasional above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.

The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 260 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Friday.
SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 211 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday.
The visible solar disk has one rapidly growing large active region, one growing medium active region, three growing small active regions, two decaying small active regions, and one decaying very small active region. Total sunspot area is 840 micro solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind speed is likely to improve to near background levels of less than 400 km/second through Friday.



We are in the equinox season when geomagnetically disturbed days occur about twice as often as during the solstice seasons . Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through Friday.


M-class solar flares are likely to cause occasional periods of a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Friday.



There is a chance that X1-class or stronger solar flares may cause radio blackouts of about one hour duration or more on propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Friday.

No S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that slightly degrade propagation crossing the northern polar region are expected through Friday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Friday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2300Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Friday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Friday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be normal through at least Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday.



There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. Trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) is likely from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z or later. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of U.S. states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via unreliable, geographically focused, brief intervals of sporadic-E or unlikely above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 9 minutes later and sunset is 16 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through at least Thursday.




Propagation crossing midlatitudes is likely to be normal through early Wednesday, mostly normal during midday Wednesday, then improving to normal through late Thursday.



Propagation crossing high latitudes is likely to be mostly normal through early Wednesday, mildly to moderately degraded during midday Wednesday, then improving to mostly normal through late Thursday.




40 meter DX propagation is likely from early evening until after sunrise.

30 meter DX propagation is likely from late afternoon until a few hours after sunrise.

20, 17 and 15 meter DX propagation is likely 24 hours per day.

12 meter DX propagation is likely from sunrise through late night hours.

10 meter DX propagation is likely from early morning through early night hours.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .

All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



Global 6 meter F2 propagation may begin in late October if solar flux values persist well above 200. 6 meter Trans-Equatorial F2 Propagation (TEP) is likely to occur regularly from the southern tier of US states from September through early November. More northerly mid-latitude locations need an infrequent additional sporadic-E hop or an above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 hop. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.



The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 168 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.


SILSO’s latest Estimated International Sunspot Number was 128 and is likely to remain about the same through Thursday.


The visible solar disk has one growing medium active region, one stable medium active region, one growing small active region, three stable small active regions and two declining small active regions containing 44 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 690 micro solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause a few minutes of minor to moderate radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Thursday.



No X1-class solar flares are likely to cause longer lasting blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Thursday.

No S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that slightly degrade propagation crossing the northern polar region are expected through Thursday.

160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Thursday . 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded through September by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until at least several hours after sunset.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, mildly degraded on Wednesday and mostly normal on Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mildly to moderately disturbed on Tuesday and Wednesday, improving to normal on Thursday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through early Wednesday, mildly to moderately degraded during midday Wednesday, then improving to mostly normal through late Thursday. Daytime 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through early Wednesday, mildly to moderately degraded during midday Wednesday, then improving to mostly normal through late Thursday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through at least October due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.


17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through early Wednesday, mildly to moderately degraded during midday Wednesday, then improving to mostly normal through late Thursday . 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, mildly to moderately degraded Wednesday and normal on Thursday.



12 and 10 meter propagation is likely to be mostly normal through early Wednesday, mildly to moderately degraded during midday Wednesday, then improving to mostly normal through late Thursday . 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, mildly to moderately degraded Wednesday and normal on Thursday.



There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the southern tier of US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7, ZD9 and ZS) from about 1400-1800Z. There is a chance of trans-equatorial F2 propagation (TEP) from the southern tier of U.S. states to South America from about 2000-0200Z. There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF oblique-TEP F2 propagation from the southern tier of US states to the south Pacific (e.g., 3D2, 5W, E5, FK, FO, VK4, VP6 and ZL) from about 1900-0300Z. There is a slight chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of sporadic-E or unlikely above-the-MUF mid-latitude F2 propagation. There is a chance of TEP propagation from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is two minutes later and sunset is three minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.