W3LPL Propagation forecast

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be

normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



The 2300Z Sunday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 165 .


The early Monday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 81.

There is a chance of 6 meter TEP propagation for at least the next few weeks.

Geographically focused sporadic-E propagation is likely to couple some luck

mid-latitude stations into TEP propagation for at least the next few weeks.



Disturbed geomagnetic conditions and geomagnetic storms are about

twice as likely, more severe and longer lasting during the late March

and early April equinox season than during the summer and winter solstice

seasons.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to

south and southeast east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Monday,

Tuesday and Wednesday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



The visible solar disk has one decaying medium active region and several small active regions. There are 30 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 430 micro-solar hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly near 400 km/second from Monday until midday Tuesday then possibly increasing to about 500 km/second from late Tuesday until early Wednesday, then declining to below 500 km/second by midday Wednesday.



Mostly active geomagnetic conditions are likely through at least midday Monday, improving to mostly unsettled from midday Monday until late Wednesday. There is a chance of minor to moderate geomagnetic storm activity through midday Wednesday due to possible coronal hole high speed stream effects




S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that degrade propagation crossing the south polar region are unlikely on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.


There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause isolated periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. No X-class solar flares that typically cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are likely on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2330Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal from Monday through late Tuesday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Tuesday until early Wednesday then improving to mostly normal after midday Wednesday . 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



There is a slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is six minutes earlier and sunset is four minutes later than it was on March 20th.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Some of the best HF propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely

from early Friday through at least midday Saturday.



HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions

is likely to be normal from Friday through late Saturday,

mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Saturday

through early Sunday then improving to mostly normal after

midday Sunday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal from

Friday through late Saturday, mildly degraded during local nighttime

hours from late Saturday until early Sunday then improving to

mostly normal after midday Sunday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal on

Friday, Saturday and Sunday.



The 2300Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 168 .


The early Friday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 171.

There is a chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until it becomes

more frequent and long lasting during the late-March through early April

equinox season. Sporadic-E propagation is likely to more frequently

couple mid-latitude stations into TEP propagation from late March through

April.



Disturbed geomagnetic conditions and geomagnetic storms are now

about twice as likely and more severe and long lasting than during th

summer and winter solstice seasons.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south

and southeast east Asia is likely to be normal from Friday through late

Saturday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Saturday

until early Sunday then improving to mostly normal after midday Sunday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



The visible solar disk has one decaying medium active region and eight small active regions. There are 49 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 530 micro-solar hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).


Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly near 400 km/second from Friday until late Saturday then increasing to about 500 km/second from late Saturday until early Sunday then declining to below 500 km/second by midday Sunday.



Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely from Friday through at least midday Saturday, degrading to unsettled to active from late Saturday until midday Sunday then improving to mostly quiet from midday through late Sunday.




S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that degrade propagation crossing the south polar region are unlikely on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.


There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause isolated periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. No X-class solar flares that typically cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are likely on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2330Z is likely to be normal on Friday, mildly degraded on Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0900Z is likely to be normal on Friday and Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal from Friday through late Saturday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Saturday until early Sunday then improving to mostly normal after midday Sunday . 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal from Friday through late Saturday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Saturday until early Sunday then improving to mostly normal after midday Sunday.




17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal from Friday through late Saturday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Saturday until early Sunday then improving to mostly normal after midday Sunday.. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal from Friday through late Saturday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Saturday through early Sunday then improving to mostly normal after midday Sunday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal from Friday through late Saturday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Saturday until early Sunday then improving to mostly normal after midday Sunday... Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal from Friday through late Saturday, mildly degraded during local nighttime hours from late Saturday until early Sunday then improving to mostly normal after midday Sunday.



There is a slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is two minutes earlier and sunset is one minutes later than it was on March 20th.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours on Thursday

and Friday gradually improving to mostly normal after early Saturday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded

on Thursday and mostly normal on Friday and Saturday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded

on Thursday and normal on Friday and Saturday.



The 2200Z Tuesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 160 .


The late Tuesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 158.

There is a chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until it becomes more

frequent and long lasting during the mid-March through early April equinox

season. Sporadic-E propagation is likely to more frequently couple

mid-latitude stations into TEP propagation by mid to late March.



Disturbed geomagnetic conditions and geomagnetic storms are now about

twice as likely and more severe and long lasting than during the summer

and winter solstice seasons.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south

and southeast east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded mostly during

local nighttime hours on Thursday and Friday nights improving to

mostly normal after early Saturday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



The visible solar disk has two growing medium active regions, one stable medium active region, and seven small active regions. There are 60 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 640 micro-solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).


Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly near 500 km/second on Thursday and Friday then gradually declining by midday Saturday.



Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely on Thursday, improving to mostly unsettled with isolated active periods on Friday then further improving to quiet to unsettled after early Saturday.




S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that degrade propagation crossing the south polar region are unlikely on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.


There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause isolated periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. No X-class solar flares that typically cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are likely on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded early Thursday and Friday improving to mostly normal during early Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Thursday improving to mostly normal on Friday and Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Thursday and Friday improving to mostly normal on Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours on Thursday and Friday gradually improving to mostly normal after early Saturday . 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours on Thursday and Friday gradually improving to mostly normal after early Saturday.

.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours on Thursday and Friday gradually improving to mostly normal after early Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded during local nighttime hours on Thursday and Friday gradually improving to mostly normal after early Saturday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded during local nighttime hours on Thursday and Friday gradually improving to mostly normal after early Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded during local nighttime hours on Thursday and Friday gradually improving to mostly normal after early Saturday.



There is a slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 61 minutes earlier and sunset is 85 minutes later than it was on December 21st.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

mildly to moderately degraded mostly during local nighttime hours on

Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal on

Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal on

Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



The 2200Z Tuesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 162


The late Tuesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 141

There is a chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until it becomes more

frequent and long lasting during the mid-March through early April equinox

season. Sporadic-E propagation is likely to more frequently couple mid-latitude

stations into TEP propagation by mid to late March.



Disturbed geomagnetic conditions and geomagnetic storms are now about

twice as likely and more severe and long lasting than during the summer

and winter solstice seasons.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south

and southeast east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded on Wednesday,

Thursday and Friday.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



The visible solar disk has one growing medium active region, one stable medium active region, one decaying medium active region and three small active regions. There are 48 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 610 micro-solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).


Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly near 500 km/second on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely on Wednesday, degrading to mostly unsettled with isolated active periods on Thursday and Friday.




S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that degrade propagation crossing the south polar region are unlikely on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.


There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause isolated periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. No X-class solar flares that typically cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are likely on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday and Thursday and mildly degraded on Friday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded mostly during local nighttime hours on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday . 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded mostly during local nighttime hours on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday

.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded mostly during local nighttime hours on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded during Wednesday, Thursday and Friday



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded mostly during local nighttime hours on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded during Wednesday, Thursday and Friday



There is a slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 59 minutes earlier and sunset is 84 minutes later than it was on December 21st.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

mildly to moderately degraded mostly during local nighttime hours on

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mostly normal on

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal on

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



The 2200Z Monday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 151 .


The early Tuesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 117.

There is a chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until it becomes

more frequent and long lasting during the mid-March through early April

equinox season. Sporadic-E propagation is likely to more frequently coupl

mid-latitude stations into TEP propagation by mid to late March.



Disturbed geomagnetic conditions and geomagnetic storms are about twice

as likely during the late March early April equinox season and more severe

than during the summer and winter solstice seasons.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south and

southeast east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



The visible solar disk has one growing medium active region, one stable medium active region, one decaying medium active region and two small active regions. There are 24 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 500 micro-solar hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).


Solar wind velocity is likely to remain mostly near 500 km/second on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



Mostly unsettled geomagnetic conditions with brief active periods are likely on Tuesday, improving to mostly quiet to unsettled on Wednesday, then degrading to mostly unsettled to active on Thursday.




S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that degrade propagation crossing the south polar region are unlikely on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. No X-class solar flares that typically cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are likely on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded mostly during local nighttime hours on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be moderately degraded on Tuesday, mildly degraded on Wednesday and mostly normal on Thursday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded mostly during local nighttime hours on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday . 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded mostly during local nighttime hours on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday

.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded mostly during local nighttime hours on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded mostly during local nighttime hours on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday



There is a slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 58 minutes earlier and sunset is 83 minutes later than it was on December 21st.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday then degrading

slightly by late Saturday.



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal

on Thursday, Friday and Saturday



The 2200Z Tuesday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 156


The late Monday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 145

There is a chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until it becomes

more frequent and long lasting during the mid-March through early April

equinox season. Sporadic-E propagation is likely to more frequently

couple mid-latitude stations into TEP propagation by mid to late March.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south

and southeast east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday

and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, two stable medium regions and seven small active regions. There are 47 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 730 micro-solar hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).


Solar wind velocity is likely to gradually decline below 400 km/second through midday Saturday then increasing to 400 km/second or more by late Saturday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then becoming slightly degraded by late Saturday.






S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms that degrade propagation crossing the south polar region are unlikely on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.


There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. No X-class solar flares that typically cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are likely on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday . 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday

.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday.



There is a slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at:


There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. No X-class solar flares that typically cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are likely on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday . 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday

.

17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday, Friday and most of Saturday, then degrading slightly by late Saturday.



There is a slight chance of enhanced 6 meter propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at:

[4L5A]

HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

moderately degraded during local nighttime hours from late Friday through

early Saturday. Mild degradation is likely during local nighttime hours

from late Saturday through early Sunday.



HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mildly to moderately

degraded from Friday through midday Saturday improving to mostly normal

from midday Saturday through late Sunday.



HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded from

Friday through midday Saturday improving to mostly normal from midday

Saturday through late Sunday.



The 2200Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 177 .


The early Friday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 108.

There is only a very slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP

propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during the mid-Marc

to early April equinox season. Mid latitude stations need a sporadic-E hop

to connect into TEP.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south and

southeast east Asia is likely to be mildly degraded from Friday through midday

Saturday improving to mostly normal from midday Saturday through late Sunday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



There is only a very slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during the mid-March to early April equinox season. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until late March but could occur without warning any time from local late morning to evening hours.

The visible solar disk has one stable large active region, one decaying large active region, one stable medium active region and four small active regions. There are 59 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 830 micro-solar hemispheres (about five times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be above 500 km/second from Friday through midday Saturday and gradually declining below 500 km/second from midday Saturday through late Sunday.



Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely from Friday through midday Saturday with minor geomagnetic storm conditions likely and a chance of a moderate geomagnetic storm. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely from midday Saturday through late Sunday with a chance of minor geomagnetic storm conditions.




S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms are likely to slightly degrade propagation crossing the south polar region.

There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth during Friday, Saturday and Sunday. X-class solar flares will cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth are not expected during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mildly degraded from Friday through midday Saturday improving to mostly normal from midday Saturday through late Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Friday and mostly normal on Saturday and Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Friday and Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded from Friday through midday Saturday improving to mostly normal from midday Saturday through late Sunday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded from Friday through midday Saturday improving to mostly normal from midday Saturday through late Sunday.



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded from Friday through midday Saturday improving to mostly normal from midday Saturday through late Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded from Friday through midday Saturday improving to mostly normal from midday Saturday through late Sunday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded from Friday through midday Saturday improving to mostly normal from midday Saturday through late Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded from Friday through midday Saturday improving to mostly normal from midday Saturday through late Sunday.



There is only a very slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during the mid-March to early April equinox season. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 43 minutes earlier and sunset is 74 minutes later than it was on December 21st.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Some of the best HF propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely on Tuesday,

Wednesday and Thursday but with a chance of brief intervals of

slightly degraded propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions

during local nighttime hours.



HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

normal during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with a chance of

brief intervals of slightly degraded propagation during local nighttime hours



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal on

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



The 2200Z Monday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 205 .

The early Tuesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 177.

There is only a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until

TEP propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during the

March and April equinox season.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south

and southeast east Asia is likely to be normal on Tuesday, Wednesday

and Thursday but with a chance of brief intervals of slightly degraded

propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions during local

nighttime hours.

This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



There is only a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during the March and April equinox season. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning any time from local late morning to evening hours.


The visible solar disk has two growing large active regions, one stable medium active region, two decaying medium active regions and four small active regions. There are 82 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1410 micro-solar hemispheres (about eight times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be below 400 km/second on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions with isolated brief unsettled intervals are likely on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.




S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms are expected that may slightly degrade propagation crossing the south polar region. There is a chance of S2 moderate solar energetic particle radiation storms that moderately affect propagation crossing mainly crossing the south polar region.


M-class solar flares are likely to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares will cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.



There is only a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during the March and April equinox season. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 37 minutes earlier and sunset is 68 minutes later than it was on December 21st.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Some of the best HF propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely on Monday,

Tuesday and Wednesday but with a chance of brief intervals of slight

degradation of propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions

during late Monday and late Tuesday local nighttime hours.



HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be

normal during Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance of brief

intervals of slight degradation during late Monday and late Tuesday

local nighttime hours



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal on

Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



The 2200Z Sunday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 209 .


The late Sunday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 180.

There is only a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during the March and April equinox season.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia is likely to be normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday but with a chance of brief intervals of slight degradation of propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions during late Monday and late Tuesday local nighttime hours.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



There is only a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during the March and April equinox season. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning any time from local late morning to evening hours.


The visible solar disk has three growing medium active regions, three decaying medium active regions and five small active regions. There are 76 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1230 micro-solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be below 400 km/second on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.




There is a slight chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may slightly degrade propagation crossing polar regions.

M-class solar flares are likely to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares will cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mostly normal on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.



There is only a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during the March and April equinox season. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 36 minutes earlier and sunset is 67 minutes later than it was on December 21st.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.

[4L5A]

Some of the best HF propagation of Solar Cycle 25 is likely on Thursday

and Friday



HF propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely

to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during

local nighttime hours during Wednesday, and normal during both

day and night on Thursday and Friday.



HF propagation crossing mid and low latitudes is likely to be normal

on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



The 2200Z Monday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 175 .

The late Monday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 155.

There is only a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until

TEP propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during

the March and April equinox season.



40 through 10 meter long path propagation from North America t

south and southeast east Asia is likely to be normal during local daytime

hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Wednesday,

and normal during both day and night on Thursday and Friday.


This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .



All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.



There is only a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during the March and April equinox season. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning any time from local late morning to evening hours.


The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, two growing medium active regions, one stable medium active region, one decaying medium active region and four small active regions. There are 87 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1465 micro-solar hemispheres (about nine times the surface area of the Earth).

Solar wind velocity is likely to be below 500 km/second early Wednesday then gradually declining to about 400 km/second or less on Thursday and Friday.



Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely through early Thursday. Quiet conditions are likely from midday Wednesday through late Friday.




No S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms are expected.


There is a chance that M-class solar flares may cause brief periods of minor blackouts of HF propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares will cause about an hour of isolated radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.



160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.



40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday and Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday and normal on Thursday and Friday.


30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Wednesday, and normal during both day and night on Thursday and Friday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.

20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Wednesday, and normal during both day and night on Thursday and Friday.



17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Wednesday, and normal during both day and night on Thursday and Friday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Wednesday, and normal during both day and night on Thursday and Friday.



12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Wednesday, and normal during both day and night on Thursday and Friday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal during local daytime hours and mostly normal during local nighttime hours during Wednesday, and normal during both day and night on Thursday and Friday..



There is only a slight chance of brief 6 meter TEP propagation until TEP propagation becomes more frequent and long lasting during the March and April equinox season. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.

Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic

storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.



Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 30 minutes earlier and sunset is 62 minutes later than it was on December 21st.



Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.