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    #21
    Some of the best HF propagation in 20 years is likely to continue but with a very slight chance of brief intervals of minor degradation of propagation crossing high latitudes during local night time hours through Thursday October 26th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
    __________________________________________________ __________________

    My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

    NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

    SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

    SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

    N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

    Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are available at https://prop.kc2g.com

    Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 30 minutes later and sunset is 47 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

    Daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are not expected through Thursday.

    The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 122 or slightly higher through Thursday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
    https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

    The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 37 and is likely to rise only slightly by Thursday The sun’s visible disk resembles solar minimum conditions with only one medium and one tiny active region containing only one medium sized sunspot and four tiny sunspots with a total sunspot area of only 70 micro-hemispheres (less than half the surface area of the Earth).
    https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

    Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated at 400 km/second or less through Thursday due to brief intervals of minor coronal hole high speed stream effects.

    Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions with possible brief unsettled intervals are likely through Thursday.

    160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Thursday.

    40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through Thursday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.

    30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Thursday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

    20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Thursday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

    17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Thursday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Thursday.

    12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be normal through Thursday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Thursday.


    There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) from late morning to mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals of low and mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

    Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

    Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

    Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
    https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

    Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
    https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

    Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

    Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
    https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

    Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net
    73 Al 4L5A

    Comment

    •  

      #22
      Despite very unusual low sunspot and geomagnetic activity for solar maximum, some of the best HF propagation in 20 years is likely to continue through at least Friday October 27th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
      __________________________________________________ __________________

      My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

      NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

      SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

      SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

      N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

      Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are generated every 15 minutes from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

      Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 32 minutes later and sunset is 48 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

      Daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are not expected through Friday.

      The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 120 through Friday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
      https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

      The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 35 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday. The sun’s visible disk resembles solar minimum conditions with only three tiny active regions containing only four tiny sunspots with a total sunspot area of only 40 micro-hemispheres (less than one quarter the surface area of the Earth).
      https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

      Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels of about 350 km/second or less through Friday due to unusually low solar activity for solar maximum.

      Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through Thursday with possible brief unsettled intervals during Friday due to isolated influence of weak coronal hole high speed stream effects.

      160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Friday.

      40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

      30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

      20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Friday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

      17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

      12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be normal through Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

      There is a slight chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) from late morning to mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals of low and mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

      Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

      Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
      https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

      Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
      https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

      Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
      https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

      Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
      https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

      Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
      https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

      Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
      73 Al 4L5A

      Comment

      •  

        #23
        Despite very unusual low sunspot and geomagnetic activity for solar maximum, some of the best HF propagation in 20 years is likely to continue through at least Saturday October 28th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
        __________________________________________________ __________________

        My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

        NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

        SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

        SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

        N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

        Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

        Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 33 minutes later and sunset is 50 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

        Daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are not expected through Saturday.

        The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is likely to be about 126 through Saturday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
        https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

        The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 31 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday. The sun’s visible disk resembles solar minimum conditions with only two active regions containing only six tiny sunspots with a total sunspot area of only 60 micro-hemispheres (about one third the surface area of the Earth).
        https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

        Solar wind speed is likely to be near background levels of about 350 km/second or less through Saturday due to unusually low solar activity for solar maximum.

        Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through Saturday with a chance of brief unsettled intervals during Friday due to isolated influence of weak coronal hole high speed stream effects.

        160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Saturday.

        40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.

        30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Saturday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

        20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Saturday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

        17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.

        12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be normal through Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.

        There is a slight chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and the south Atlantic (e.g., ZD7 and ZD9) from late morning to mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals of low and mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

        Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind exceeding 500 km/second.

        Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
        https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

        Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
        https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

        Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
        https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

        Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
        https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

        Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
        https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

        Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
        73 Al 4L5A

        Comment

        •  

          #24
          Mid and high latitude HF propagation is likely to be mildly degraded, improving to mostly normal by early Saturday then again becoming mildly degraded by late Sunday October 29th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
          __________________________________________________ __________________

          My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

          NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

          SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

          SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

          N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

          Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

          Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 35 minutes later and sunset is 52 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

          Daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares are not expected through Sunday.

          The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is 126 and is likely to climb slightly to about 130 by Sunday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
          https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

          The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 54 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk resembles solar minimum conditions with four tiny active regions containing 17 tiny sunspots with a total sunspot area of only 90 micro-hemispheres (only about half of the surface area of the Earth).
          https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

          Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated at about 450 km/second or less through early Saturday due to weakening coronal hole high speed stream effects, declining to near background levels of 400 km/second or less from early Saturday through late Sunday. Solar wind speed is likely to become mildly elevated to about 450 km/second or more by late Sunday due to mild coronal hole high speed stream effects.

          Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely through early Saturday due to weakening coronal hole high speed stream effects. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely from early Saturday until late Sunday when unsettled to active conditions are expected to commence due to mild coronal hole high speed stream effects.

          160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

          40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Saturday and moderately degraded on Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Sunday.

          30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Sunday then becoming moderately degraded by late Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

          20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Sunday then becoming moderately degraded by late Sunday. 20 meter long distance propagation at low latitudes is usually degraded from several hours before local solar noon until several hours after local solar noon by E region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

          17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Sunday then becoming moderately degraded by late Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.

          12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal through midday Sunday then becoming moderately degraded by late Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Sunday.

          There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early to late evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic coast of southern Africa (e.g., ZD7, D2 and 7Q) from late morning to mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals of low and mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

          Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

          Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
          https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

          Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
          https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

          Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
          https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

          Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
          https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

          Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
          https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

          Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
          73 Al 4L5A

          Comment

          •  

            #25
            Low and mid-latitude HF propagation is likely to be mostly normal but high latitude propagation is likely to be mildly disturbed during local night time hours through Tuesday October 31st by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
            __________________________________________________ __________________

            My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

            NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

            SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

            SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

            N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

            Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

            Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 37 minutes later and sunset is 55 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

            There is a slight chance of daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Tuesday.

            The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is 135 and is likely to remain unchanged through Tuesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
            https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

            The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 83 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk continues to resemble solar minimum conditions with four tiny active regions containing 21 tiny sunspots with a total sunspot area of only 70 micro-hemispheres (about one third of the surface area of the Earth).
            https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

            Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated to about 550km/second or less through Monday, waning to less than 500 km/second by Tuesday due to weakening coronal hole high speed stream effects.

            Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely through Tuesday due to weakening coronal hole high speed stream effects.

            160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Tuesday.

            40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mildly degraded through Tuesday.

            30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded through midday Monday improving to mostly normal through Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

            20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded through midday Monday improving to mostly normal through Tuesday.

            17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly degraded through midday Monday improving to mostly normal through Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

            12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mildly degraded through midday Monday improving to mostly normal through Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal through Tuesday.

            There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic coast of southern Africa (e.g., ZD7, D2 and 7Q) from late morning to mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals of low and mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

            Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

            Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
            https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

            Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
            https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

            Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
            https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

            Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
            https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

            Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
            https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

            Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
            73 Al 4L5A

            Comment

            •  

              #26
              Low and mid-latitude HF propagation is likely to be normal and high latitude propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday November 1st by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
              __________________________________________________ __________________

              My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

              NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

              SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

              SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

              N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

              Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

              Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 38 minutes later and sunset is 56 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

              There is an isolated chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through Wednesday.

              The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is 140 and is likely to remain unchanged through Wednesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
              https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

              The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 79 and is likely to remain about the same through Wednesday. The sun’s visible disk has two moderate and one tiny active region containing 32 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 220 micro-hemispheres (slightly larger than the surface area of the Earth).
              https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

              Solar wind speed is likely to be mildly elevated to about 500 km/second or less through Tuesday, waning to about 400 km/second or less by Wednesday due to weakening coronal hole high speed stream effects.

              Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are likely through Wednesday due to weakening coronal hole high speed stream effects.

              160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

              40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

              30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

              20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday.

              17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

              12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly normal through Wednesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Wednesday.

              There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic coast of southern Africa (e.g., ZD7, D2 and 7Q) from late morning to mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals of low and mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

              Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

              Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
              https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

              Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
              https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

              Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
              https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

              Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
              https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

              Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
              https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

              Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
              73 Al 4L5A

              Comment

              •  

                #27
                The best HF propagation in 20 years is likely to resume through at least Friday November 3rd by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
                __________________________________________________ __________________

                My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

                NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

                SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

                N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

                Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

                Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 39 minutes later and sunset is 58 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

                There is an isolated chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through at least Friday.

                The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is 147 and is likely to remain unchanged through at least Friday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
                https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

                The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 97 and is likely to remain about the same through Friday. The sun’s visible disk has one very large, one medium and three tiny active regions containing 66 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 670 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
                https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

                Solar wind speed is likely to remain to be about 400 km/second or less through at least Friday.

                Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through at least Friday.

                160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

                40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through Friday.

                30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Friday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

                20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

                17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

                12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be normal through Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least Friday.

                There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated propagation via the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic coast of southern Africa (e.g., ZD7, D2 and 7Q) from late morning to mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of mid-latitude sporadic-E and intervals of low and mid-latitude F region ionization irregularities. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

                Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

                Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
                https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

                Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
                https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

                Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
                https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

                Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
                https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

                Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
                https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

                Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
                73 Al 4L5A

                Comment

                •  

                  #28
                  The best HF propagation in 20 years is likely to continue through at least midday Saturday November 4th and during many more November days by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
                  __________________________________________________ __________________

                  My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

                  NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

                  SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                  SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

                  N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

                  Near-real time maps and data about HF ionospheric propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

                  Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 40 minutes later and sunset is 59 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

                  There is an isolated chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through at least Saturday.

                  The Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index is 159 and is likely to remain unchanged through at least Saturday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
                  https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

                  The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 134 and is likely to remain about the same through Saturday. The sun’s visible disk has one very large, one medium and four tiny active regions containing 45 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 680 micro-hemispheres (about three times the surface area of the Earth).
                  https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

                  Solar wind speed is likely to be about 400 km/second or less through at least midday Saturday.

                  Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through at least midday Saturday.

                  160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Saturday.

                  40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through at least midday Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through Saturday.

                  30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least midday Saturday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

                  20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least midday Saturday.

                  17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through at least midday Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least midday Saturday.

                  12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be normal through at least midday Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through at least midday Saturday.

                  There is a chance of brief, isolated and geographically focused trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, etc). There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated F2 propagation coupled into the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and southern Africa (e.g., ZD7, D2 and 7Q) from late morning to mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation coupled into oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

                  Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

                  Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
                  https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

                  Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
                  https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

                  Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
                  https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

                  Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
                  https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

                  Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
                  https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

                  Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
                  73 Al 4L5A

                  Comment

                  •  

                    #29
                    The best HF propagation in 20 years is likely to continue through at least midday Saturday with possible mild degradations at high latitudes during local nighttime hours from late Saturday through late Sunday November 5th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
                    __________________________________________________ __________________

                    My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

                    NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

                    SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                    SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

                    N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

                    KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

                    Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 42 minutes later and sunset is 61 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

                    There is a chance of isolated minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through at least Sunday.

                    The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 159 and is likely to remain unchanged through Sunday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
                    https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

                    The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 162 and is likely to remain about the same through Sunday. The sun’s visible disk has one very large, one large, one medium and four tiny active regions containing 43 sunspots with a total sunspot area of 820 micro-hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
                    https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

                    Solar wind speed is likely to be about 400 km/second or less through midday Saturday then possibly increasing to above 400 km/second through late Sunday due to possible effects of glancing blows by CMEs.

                    Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through at midday Saturday possibly degrading to quiet to unsettled through late Sunday due to possible effects of glancing blows by CMEs.

                    160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through Sunday.

                    40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be normal through midday Saturday then mildly degraded from late Saturday through late Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal through Saturday then mildly degraded on Sunday.

                    30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Saturday then mildly degraded through late Sunday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

                    20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Saturday then mildly degraded through late Sunday.

                    17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal through midday Saturday then mildly degraded through late Sunday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday then mildly degraded on Sunday.

                    12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be normal through normal through midday Saturday then mildly degraded through late Sunday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be normal through Saturday then mildly degraded on Sunday.

                    There is a chance of brief, isolated and geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated F2 propagation coupled into the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and southern Africa (e.g., ZD7, D2 and 7Q) from late morning to mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation coupled into oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

                    Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

                    Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
                    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

                    Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
                    https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

                    Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
                    https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

                    Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
                    https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

                    Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
                    https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

                    Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation
                    73 Al 4L5A

                    Comment

                    •  

                      #30
                      Mostly below normal propagation is likely at high latitudes through late Tuesday. Propagation at low and mid latitudes is likely to be fair with periods of poor propagation through late Tuesday, improving to mostly normal during local daylight hours on Tuesday November 7th by Frank Donovan, W3LPL
                      __________________________________________________ __________________

                      My propagation forecast derived from today's NOAA/SWPC web pages and twelve other online sources (the URLs included this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX. All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.

                      NWRA’s Table of Space Weather Indices is updated 40 minutes after every hour at https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/env_latest.html

                      SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number is updated continuously at https://www.sidc.be/silso/DATA/EISN/EISNcurrent.png

                      SWPC’s estimated planetary Kp Index is updated every three hours at https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/image...on-k-index.png

                      N0NBH’s current HF Band Conditions report is updated regularly at https://www.hamqsl.com/solar.html

                      KC2G’s near-real-time maps and data about HF propagation are generated every 15 minutes, from data usually 5 to 20 minutes old at https://prop.kc2g.com

                      Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 44 minutes later and sunset is 64 minutes earlier than it was on September 23rd. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the 300 km altitude of the F2 region than it is at ground level.

                      There is a chance of minor to moderate daytime radio blackouts caused by M-class solar flares through at least Tuesday.

                      The 2300Z Penticton 10.7 cm solar flux index was 155 and is likely to remain unchanged through Tuesday. The solar flux index is updated daily at 1700, 2000 and 2300Z at:
                      https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/forec...-5-flux-en.php

                      The latest Estimated International Sunspot Number is 85 and is likely to remain about the same through Tuesday. The sun’s visible disk has one two large, one medium and three tiny active regions containing 21sunspots with a total sunspot area of 780 micro-hemispheres (about four times the surface area of the Earth).
                      https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...tions/solarmap

                      Solar wind speed is likely to be about 400 km/second or less through midday Tuesday then increasing to 450 km/second or more by late Tuesday due to coronal hole high speed streams effects.

                      Minor geomagnetic storm conditions are likely through midday Monday improving to unsettled to active through midday Tuesday due to coronal hole high speed stream effects. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely from midday until late Tuesday when coronal hole high speed effects are likely to again intensify.

                      160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mostly below normal through Tuesday.

                      40 meter short path propagation from North America to south Asia after about 2300Z is likely to be mostly below normal through late Tuesday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be below normal on Monday improvinf to mostly normal on Tuesday.

                      30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through late Tuesday. 30 meter propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of long distance low angle F2 propagation.

                      20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through late Tuesday.

                      17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly below normal through late Tuesday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be mostly below normal on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday.

                      12 and 10 meter long distance daytime propagation is likely to be mostly below normal through late Tuesday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1200Z to at least 1400Z is likely to be below normal on Monday improving to mostly normal on Tuesday.

                      There is a chance of brief, isolated and geographically focused 6 meter trans-Atlantic F2 propagation during late morning hours between mid-latitude U.S states and the Mediterranean (CT, EA, F, I, SV, etc). There is a chance of 6 meter F2 trans-equatorial propagation (TEP) from mid-latitude U.S. states to South America from late afternoon through early evening. There is a slight chance of brief isolated F2 propagation coupled into the northern equatorial ionization anomaly from the mid-latitude US states to equatorial Africa, the Indian Ocean and southern Africa (e.g., ZD7, D2 and 7Q) from late morning through mid-afternoon. There is a slight chance of F2 propagation coupled into oblique-TEP from the mid-latitude US states to the south Pacific and VK/ZL during early evening. There is a chance that more northerly U.S. stations may couple into TEP and oblique-TEP via geographically focused brief intervals of F2 propagation. TEP may be significantly enhanced during late afternoon through early evening during the onset of strong to severe solar flares and geomagnetic storms then significantly degrading after initial enhancement. See K6MIO’s excellent article on 6 meter TEP, oblique-TEP, TEP-related and mid-latitude sporadic-E linking to TEP beginning on page 9 at: http://www.oh3ac.fi/QEX-2016-11.pdf

                      Southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas for several hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed coronal hole high speed stream. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF persists in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength mildly stronger than 5 nanoteslas for at least a few hours coincident with the effects of an Earth directed CME and solar wind speed exceeding 500 km/second.

                      Real time geomagnetic data including Bz orientation, IMF field strength, solar wind speed and short term k-index forecast are available at:
                      https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/g...-activity-plot

                      Today's three-day GFZ Planetary K Index forecast is updated every three hours at:
                      https://spaceweather.gfz-potsdam.de/...ST_CURRENT.png

                      Today's SIDC Daily Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity is updated daily at 1230Z at:
                      https://www.sidc.be/spaceweatherserv...WCproducts/meu

                      Today's SWPC Solar Activity Forecast Discussion is updated daily at 0030Z and 1230Z at:
                      https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion

                      Today's Australian Space Forecast Centre Summary and Forecast is updated daily at 2330Z at:
                      https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/Space_Weather/1/1

                      Perhaps the most useful HF propagation pages for DXers can be found at: http://dx.qsl.net/propagation and https://www.solarham.net

                      73 Al 4L5A

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