The solar flux index declined slightly to 216 during Wednesday while SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number rose significantly to 204 during early Thursday. Slightly more reliable 6 meter F2 propagation is likely through midday Wednesday. Unsettled to minor geomagnetic storm conditions are likely to degrade the reliability of 6 meter F2 propagation from about midday Thursday through early Saturday. Slightly improved F2 propagation is possible by about midday Saturday.
HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal through about midday Thursday. Mild to moderately degraded MUFs are likely mainly during local nighttime hours from about midday Thursday through about midday Friday. Improved propagation is likely by midday Saturday.
HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal through about midday Friday. Mildly degraded MUFs are likely mainly during local nighttime hours from midday Friday through midday Saturday. Improved propagation is likely by midday Saturday.
HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through at least Saturday.
This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .
All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
Slightly more widespread, slightly more reliable and slightly longer duration global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely through about midday Thursday and during Saturday if geomagnetic activity remains mostly quiet. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 216 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number rose significantly to 204 early Thursday and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.
The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, one decaying large active region and one stable medium active region. The remaining six active regions are small and mostly stable. There are 63 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1130 micro solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).
Solar wind velocity is likely to remain near background levels below 400 km/second through about midday Thursday, increasing above 400 km/second from about midday Thursday through early Saturday then gradually waning to about 400 km/second or less after about midday Saturday.
Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through about midday Thursday. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely from about midday Thursday through about midday Saturday, with a chance of minor geomagnetic storm conditions from about late Friday through about early Saturday. We are entering the winter solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.
Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through about midday Thursday. MUFs are likely to be mildly to degraded mainly during local nighttime hours from about midday Thursday through early Saturday but periods of moderate degradation are possible if the north-south (Bz) component of the interplanetary magnetic field is oriented southwards for several hours.
M-class solar flares are likely to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday.
There is a chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may cause slightly increased polar absorption through at least Saturday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Friday improving to mostly normal on Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday and mildly degraded from before midday Saturday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Thursday, mildly to moderately degraded during Friday then gradually improving by early to midday Saturday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Thursday, mildly to moderately degraded during Friday then gradually improving by early to midday Saturday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through late November due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Thursday, mildly to moderately degraded during Friday then gradually improving by early to midday Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday then degrading to mildly to moderately degraded on Friday and Saturday.
12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through about midday Friday, mildly to moderately degraded from about midday Friday though about midday Saturday then improving to mostly normal after about midday Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday then degrading to mildly to moderately degraded on Friday and Saturday.
There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z. Significant improvement is possible if the solar flux index significantly exceeds 200 for several days. There is a chance enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 69 minutes later and sunset is 77 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.
HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mostly normal through about midday Thursday. Mild to moderately degraded MUFs are likely mainly during local nighttime hours from about midday Thursday through about midday Friday. Improved propagation is likely by midday Saturday.
HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal through about midday Friday. Mildly degraded MUFs are likely mainly during local nighttime hours from midday Friday through midday Saturday. Improved propagation is likely by midday Saturday.
HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal through at least Saturday.
This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .
All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
Slightly more widespread, slightly more reliable and slightly longer duration global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely through about midday Thursday and during Saturday if geomagnetic activity remains mostly quiet. 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is extremely unlikely until December.
The 2200Z Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 216 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.
SILSO’s Estimated International Sunspot Number rose significantly to 204 early Thursday and is likely to remain about the same through at least Saturday.
The visible solar disk has one growing large active region, one decaying large active region and one stable medium active region. The remaining six active regions are small and mostly stable. There are 63 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1130 micro solar hemispheres (about seven times the surface area of the Earth).
Solar wind velocity is likely to remain near background levels below 400 km/second through about midday Thursday, increasing above 400 km/second from about midday Thursday through early Saturday then gradually waning to about 400 km/second or less after about midday Saturday.
Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely through about midday Thursday. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely from about midday Thursday through about midday Saturday, with a chance of minor geomagnetic storm conditions from about late Friday through about early Saturday. We are entering the winter solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.
Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through about midday Thursday. MUFs are likely to be mildly to degraded mainly during local nighttime hours from about midday Thursday through early Saturday but periods of moderate degradation are possible if the north-south (Bz) component of the interplanetary magnetic field is oriented southwards for several hours.
M-class solar flares are likely to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth through Saturday.
There is a chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may cause slightly increased polar absorption through at least Saturday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal through at least Saturday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Friday improving to mostly normal on Saturday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mostly normal through Friday and mildly degraded from before midday Saturday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Thursday, mildly to moderately degraded during Friday then gradually improving by early to midday Saturday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Thursday, mildly to moderately degraded during Friday then gradually improving by early to midday Saturday. 20 meter propagation beyond 2200 km in the low latitude northern hemisphere is likely to be mildly degraded during midday hours through late November due to E-region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through midday Thursday, mildly to moderately degraded during Friday then gradually improving by early to midday Saturday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday then degrading to mildly to moderately degraded on Friday and Saturday.
12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mostly normal through about midday Friday, mildly to moderately degraded from about midday Friday though about midday Saturday then improving to mostly normal after about midday Saturday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia from about 1100Z to 1400Z is likely to be mostly normal on Thursday then degrading to mildly to moderately degraded on Friday and Saturday.
There is a slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z. Significant improvement is possible if the solar flux index significantly exceeds 200 for several days. There is a chance enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is 69 minutes later and sunset is 77 minutes earlier than it was on September 22nd . Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.
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