The 2200Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 226.
The early Wednesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 181.
6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be very infrequent until at least late January.
HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mildly
to moderately degraded through midday Wednesday then gradually
improving to mostly normal by early Friday.
HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mildly to moderately
degraded through midday Wednesday then gradually improving to
mostly normal by early Thursday and normal by early Friday.
HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded
on Wednesday, mostly normal by early Thursday and normal by early Friday.
Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia
on 80 through 10 meters is likely to be mildly degraded through about midday
Wednesday then gradually improving to normal by early Thursday.
This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .
All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be very infrequent until at least late January . 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km remains infrequent and unreliable but could occur without warning during the next two weeks.
The 2200Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 226 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday.
The early Wednesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 181 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday.
The visible solar disk has one decaying large active region, two growing medium active regions, one stable medium active region and four small active regions. There are 72 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1040 micro-solar hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth).
Solar wind velocity is likely to slowly decline below 500 km/second through midday Wednesday, further declining to about 400 km/second by early Thursday and less than 400 km/second by early Friday.
Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely through midday Wednesday gradually subsiding to mostly quiet on Thursday and quiet on Friday. We are in the solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.
Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through early Wednesday then gradually improving to mostly normal by early Friday.
There is a slight chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may slightly increase absorption of HF propagation crossing the polar regions on Wednesday, Thursday and Thursday.
M-class solar flares are expected to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Wednesday, Thursday and Thursday. There is a chance that isolated X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Wednesday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mildly degraded on Wednesday, mostly normal by early Thursday and normal by early Friday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday and Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Wednesday, mostly normal on Thursday improving to normal on Friday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Wednesday, mostly normal by early Thursday further improving to normal by early Friday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through midday Wednesday, gradually improving to mostly normal by early Thursday and further improving to normal by early Friday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through midday Wednesday, gradually improving to mostly normal by early Thursday and further improving to normal by early Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through midday Wednesday, gradually improving to mostly normal by early Thursday and further improving to normal by early Friday.
12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through midday Wednesday, gradually improving to mostly normal by early Thursday and further improving to normal by early Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through midday Wednesday, gradually improving to mostly normal by early Thursday and further improving to normal by early Friday.
There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z on Wednesday. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is four minutes later and sunset is eight minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.
The early Wednesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 181.
6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be very infrequent until at least late January.
HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be mildly
to moderately degraded through midday Wednesday then gradually
improving to mostly normal by early Friday.
HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be mildly to moderately
degraded through midday Wednesday then gradually improving to
mostly normal by early Thursday and normal by early Friday.
HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be mildly degraded
on Wednesday, mostly normal by early Thursday and normal by early Friday.
Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia
on 80 through 10 meters is likely to be mildly degraded through about midday
Wednesday then gradually improving to normal by early Thursday.
This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .
All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be very infrequent until at least late January . 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km remains infrequent and unreliable but could occur without warning during the next two weeks.
The 2200Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 226 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday.
The early Wednesday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 181 and is likely to remain about the same through at least Thursday.
The visible solar disk has one decaying large active region, two growing medium active regions, one stable medium active region and four small active regions. There are 72 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1040 micro-solar hemispheres (about six times the surface area of the Earth).
Solar wind velocity is likely to slowly decline below 500 km/second through midday Wednesday, further declining to about 400 km/second by early Thursday and less than 400 km/second by early Friday.
Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are likely through midday Wednesday gradually subsiding to mostly quiet on Thursday and quiet on Friday. We are in the solstice season when strong geomagnetic disturbances are about half as likely and not as strong or long lasting as during the equinox seasons.
Propagation crossing auroral and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through early Wednesday then gradually improving to mostly normal by early Friday.
There is a slight chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may slightly increase absorption of HF propagation crossing the polar regions on Wednesday, Thursday and Thursday.
M-class solar flares are expected to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Wednesday, Thursday and Thursday. There is a chance that isolated X-class solar flares may cause an hour or more of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Wednesday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be mildly degraded on Wednesday, mostly normal by early Thursday and normal by early Friday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mostly normal on Wednesday improving to normal on Thursday and Friday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Wednesday, mostly normal on Thursday improving to normal on Friday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded on Wednesday, mostly normal by early Thursday further improving to normal by early Friday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through midday Wednesday, gradually improving to mostly normal by early Thursday and further improving to normal by early Friday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through midday Wednesday, gradually improving to mostly normal by early Thursday and further improving to normal by early Friday. 17 and 15 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through midday Wednesday, gradually improving to mostly normal by early Thursday and further improving to normal by early Friday.
12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through midday Wednesday, gradually improving to mostly normal by early Thursday and further improving to normal by early Friday. 12 and 10 meter long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be mildly to moderately degraded through midday Wednesday, gradually improving to mostly normal by early Thursday and further improving to normal by early Friday.
There is a very slight chance of above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z on Wednesday. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is four minutes later and sunset is eight minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.
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