The 2200Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 214.
The early Friday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 175.
6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be very infrequent, very short duration
and very unreliable until at least late January.
HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be normal
until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of mildly degraded periods
from midday Friday through early Saturday. Moderately degraded periods
are likely from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving
to mildly degraded through late Saturday, then gradually improving
to mostly normal from early through late Sunday.
HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal until at least
midday Friday. There is a chance of mildly degraded periods from midday
Friday through early Saturday. There is a chance of moderately degraded
periods from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving
to mostly normal from early through late Sunday.
HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal until
at least midday Friday, and mostly normal on Saturday and Sunday.
Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia
on 80 through 10 meters is likely to be normal until at least midday Friday.
There is a chance of moderately degraded periods from early through
midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mostly normal from early
through late Sunday.
This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .
All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until at least late January . 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning.
The 2200Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 214 .
The early Friday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 175.
The visible solar disk has two decaying large active regions and six small active regions. There are 79 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1400 micro-solar hemispheres (about nine times the surface area of the Earth).
Solar wind velocity is likely to be about 400 km/second until at least midday Friday , increasing to well above 400 km/second through late Saturday due to effects of multiple CMEs and gradually improving to about 400 km/second during Sunday as CME effects wane.
Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely until at least midday Friday . Minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions are likely from early through midday Saturday, then becoming unsettled to active through late Saturday. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely during Sunday.
HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be normal until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of mildly degraded periods from midday Friday through early Saturday. Moderately degraded periods are likely from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mildly degraded through late Saturday. Propagation is likely to gradually improve to mostly normal from early through late Sunday.
There is a slight chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may slightly degrade propagation crossing polar regions on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
M-class solar flares are likely to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Friday, and mostly normal on Saturday and Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Friday and Saturday improving to mostly normal Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal on Friday. moderately degraded on Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of mildly degraded periods from midday Friday through early Saturday. Moderately degraded periods are likely from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mildly degraded through late Saturday. Propagation is likely to gradually improve to mostly normal from early through late Sunday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of mildly degraded periods from midday Friday through early Saturday. Moderately degraded periods are likely from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mildly degraded through late Saturday. Propagation is likely to gradually improve to mostly normal from early through late Sunday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of mildly degraded periods from midday Friday through early Saturday. Moderately degraded periods are likely from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mildly degraded through late Saturday. Propagation is likely to gradually improve to mostly normal from early through late Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of moderately degraded periods from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mostly normal from early through late Sunday.
12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to normal until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of mildly degraded periods from midday Friday through early Saturday. Moderately degraded periods are likely from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mildly degraded through late Saturday. Propagation is likely to gradually improve to mostly normal from early through late Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of moderately degraded periods from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mostly normal from early through late Sunday.
There is a slight chance of unreliable above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. There is a slight chance of unreliable above-the-MUF propagation from the more westerly US states to the South Pacific from about 2100Z to 0200Z Friday, Saturday and Sunday. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is three minutes earlier and sunset is 33 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.
The early Friday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number (EISN) was 175.
6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be very infrequent, very short duration
and very unreliable until at least late January.
HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be normal
until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of mildly degraded periods
from midday Friday through early Saturday. Moderately degraded periods
are likely from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving
to mildly degraded through late Saturday, then gradually improving
to mostly normal from early through late Sunday.
HF propagation crossing mid latitudes is likely to be normal until at least
midday Friday. There is a chance of mildly degraded periods from midday
Friday through early Saturday. There is a chance of moderately degraded
periods from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving
to mostly normal from early through late Sunday.
HF propagation crossing low latitudes is likely to be normal until
at least midday Friday, and mostly normal on Saturday and Sunday.
Long path propagation from North America to south and southeast east Asia
on 80 through 10 meters is likely to be normal until at least midday Friday.
There is a chance of moderately degraded periods from early through
midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mostly normal from early
through late Sunday.
This forecast derived from today 's NOAA/SWPC web pages and 15 other online sources (the URLs at the end of this forecast) is published five days a week (M-F) in The Daily DX .
All days and times in this forecast are in UTC (Zulu) time.
Global 6 meter F2 propagation is likely to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until at least late January . 6 meter sporadic-E propagation beyond 2200 km is expected to be very infrequent, very short duration and very unreliable until March but could occur without warning.
The 2200Z Thursday Penticton 10.7 cm observed solar flux index was 214 .
The early Friday SILSO Estimated International Sunspot Number was 175.
The visible solar disk has two decaying large active regions and six small active regions. There are 79 sunspots on the visible disk with a total sunspot area of 1400 micro-solar hemispheres (about nine times the surface area of the Earth).
Solar wind velocity is likely to be about 400 km/second until at least midday Friday , increasing to well above 400 km/second through late Saturday due to effects of multiple CMEs and gradually improving to about 400 km/second during Sunday as CME effects wane.
Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely until at least midday Friday . Minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions are likely from early through midday Saturday, then becoming unsettled to active through late Saturday. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely during Sunday.
HF propagation crossing polar and auroral regions is likely to be normal until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of mildly degraded periods from midday Friday through early Saturday. Moderately degraded periods are likely from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mildly degraded through late Saturday. Propagation is likely to gradually improve to mostly normal from early through late Sunday.
There is a slight chance that S1-class minor solar energetic particle radiation storms may slightly degrade propagation crossing polar regions on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
M-class solar flares are likely to cause brief periods of minor blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. There is a slight chance that X-class solar flares may cause about an hour of radio blackouts of propagation paths crossing the sunlit side of the Earth on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
160 and 80 meter propagation from North America to VK/ZL and the South Pacific is likely to be normal on Friday, and mostly normal on Saturday and Sunday. 160 and 80 meter long distance propagation in the northern hemisphere is always mildly to moderately degraded by E region blanketing of low angle F2 propagation until sunset or later.
40 meter short path propagation from North America to the Middle East and south Asia after about 2200Z is likely to be mildly degraded on Friday and Saturday improving to mostly normal Sunday. Short path propagation between North America and east Asia after about 0800Z is likely to be normal on Friday. moderately degraded on Saturday and mostly normal on Sunday.
30 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of mildly degraded periods from midday Friday through early Saturday. Moderately degraded periods are likely from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mildly degraded through late Saturday. Propagation is likely to gradually improve to mostly normal from early through late Sunday. 30 meter long distance propagation is always mildly to moderately degraded within several hours of local noon by E-region blanketing of low angle long distance F2 propagation.
20 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of mildly degraded periods from midday Friday through early Saturday. Moderately degraded periods are likely from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mildly degraded through late Saturday. Propagation is likely to gradually improve to mostly normal from early through late Sunday.
17 and 15 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to be normal until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of mildly degraded periods from midday Friday through early Saturday. Moderately degraded periods are likely from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mildly degraded through late Saturday. Propagation is likely to gradually improve to mostly normal from early through late Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of moderately degraded periods from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mostly normal from early through late Sunday.
12 and 10 meter propagation crossing the auroral ovals and polar regions is likely to normal until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of mildly degraded periods from midday Friday through early Saturday. Moderately degraded periods are likely from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mildly degraded through late Saturday. Propagation is likely to gradually improve to mostly normal from early through late Sunday. Long path propagation from North America to southeast and east Asia is likely to be normal until at least midday Friday. There is a chance of moderately degraded periods from early through midday Saturday, then gradually improving to mostly normal from early through late Sunday.
There is a slight chance of unreliable above-the-MUF 6 meter F2 propagation over Africa from the more easterly US states to the Indian Ocean, equatorial and southern Africa (e.g., 3B8. 3B9, 7Q, D2, FR, V5, ZD7 and ZS) from about 1400-1700Z on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. There is a slight chance of unreliable above-the-MUF propagation from the more westerly US states to the South Pacific from about 2100Z to 0200Z Friday, Saturday and Sunday. There is a slight chance of enhanced propagation crossing low latitudes from about 2000-0200Z during the initial phase of strong to severe geomagnetic storms then degrading several hours after initial enhancement.
Sustained southward orientation (-Bz) of the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) plays a crucial but unpredictable role in triggering all geomagnetic storms. Brief minor to moderate geomagnetic
storms may be gradually triggered when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for at least a few hours coincident with the influence of a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream or CME. More frequent, longer duration, minor to severe geomagnetic storms may be triggered suddenly and unpredictably when the IMF is sustained in a southward orientation (-Bz) with IMF field strength of about 5 nanoteslas or more for a period of several hours or more coincident with the influence of a geoeffective CME and solar wind speed of about 500 km/second or more.
Mid-latitude northern hemisphere sunrise is three minutes earlier and sunset is 33 minutes later than it was on December 21st. Sunrise is about two hours earlier and sunset is about two hours later at the altitude of the refracting F2 region. Sunrise is about one hour earlier, and sunset is about one hour later at the altitude of the daytime absorbing D region.
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